banjo
GOSBTS
Heavy snow in Greece. 
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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
Weststander
Well-known member
It’s forecast to be extremely cold in SE England from the 19th Jan, but too early to say whether that include precipitation.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
That's the danger of only viewing the GFS Operational run in isolation. It's used by many forecasting sites etc and today's run is at the cold end of possible outcomes. It's the thick black run below.
The overall outlook is showing tantalising signs of possible cold spells, but they're always in week 2 and never develop or remain into the reliable time frame.
Lindfield by the Pond
Well-known member
Will it snow though?
pearl
Well-known member
can you put that in language an idiot like me will understand please?
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
There are many possible outcomes (synoptically) from mid month, and the level of confidence in any particular outcome is low. There is still a chance of colder / snowy weather, but we need to wait a few days to see how the models incorporate the effect on the recent SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) before we can call anything.
Agreed, and to that I'd add as well that it's the danger of looking at one forecast run in isolation. All of the models are struggling to figure out what's going to happen at the moment, which is being seen in the Op runs flip-flopping between warmer and colder solutions from one run to the next.
Having said that, from what I've seen there's a growing trend towards seeing colder solutions within the range of possibilities ... assuming the SSW and resultant vortex split fall favourably for cold weather in the UK. There's been tantalising hints of significant northerly / nor-easterly events dragging polar air over the UK later this month / early next.
Indeed. Last I saw there's a possibility that the Vortex split caused by the SSW could send one of the daughter vortex's into an area that would be bad if you want cold and snow in the UK.
Annoying that it's all still sitting far enough off in the future that the modelling is horribly unreliable (especially the GFS at the ranges we're looking at).
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Re any possible cold weather associated with the result of the SSW, the latest GFS ensemble still is unsure of whether it's cold or mild at the end of the run. Still a wide range of temperatures available.
We DO have a couple of chillier days later in the week (1st circled period), but the later spell is still TBD.
We DO have a couple of chillier days later in the week (1st circled period), but the later spell is still TBD.
pearl
Well-known member
Your chart is France though?
casbom
Well-known member
- Jul 24, 2007
- 2,598
No the website is French (Meteociel) however the location is here in the UK (probably Worthing?)
pearl
Well-known member
Oh, I see, thank you ... longitude and latitude, got it ..... (humour me)
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
It'll be somewhere just inland of Shoreham, not a specific location, but from a clickable map.
Before Christmas. the Met Office's 4-week forecast was predicting an increasingly likely cold spell, with easterly winds and an increasing likelihood of snow, for mid-January.
Now they're forecasting it for the end of January/beginning of February.
I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think this particular 'Beast from the East' is going to materialise.
Now they're forecasting it for the end of January/beginning of February.
I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think this particular 'Beast from the East' is going to materialise.
banjo
GOSBTS
It’s toastie warm ATM.
Plake
Unregistered User
Ban this sick filth
Feeling more and more like yet another warm, wet winter TBH
Classic Express.....ridiculous headline followed by an article that describes a normal winter [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weat...-office-long-range-forecast-snow-january-2019
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weat...-office-long-range-forecast-snow-january-2019
BN41Albion
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2017
- 6,827
I made the mistake of checking the netweather forum about a week ago. The usual goons were calling for snow showers midweek this week opening the door to a new ice age next week.
A check at the weekend and they'd made their clockwork 'push it back a week' and then when I checked yesterday saw a couple of posts talking about '2nd half of February' so didn't bother any further.
I'll wait until I see it on this thread before I start stockpiling food
A check at the weekend and they'd made their clockwork 'push it back a week' and then when I checked yesterday saw a couple of posts talking about '2nd half of February' so didn't bother any further.
I'll wait until I see it on this thread before I start stockpiling food
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Still potential 'out there' but nothing sustained showing. Nothing to get excited about yet.
If you're bored of the mild shit, at least tomorrow and Thursday will be cooler.