[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[TSB]

Am I missing something here?
Netweather says chance of snow for BN3 this weekend is ZERO.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Hi Papa,

There are some murmurings on Netweather about a potential, further cold set-up for the end of March as well. It seems this SSW has really set the cat amongst the pigeons.

Yep. it's there in the model data - another cold outbreak, slightly less cold each time.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Tantalisingly close to being some sort of giant grotesque euphemism

Hahaha!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Am I missing something here?
Netweather says chance of snow for BN3 this weekend is ZERO.

Who knows? The setup could deliver snow for all of us, but as we've seen in the past, it could miss us.

 

[Audax]

Am I missing something here?
Netweather says chance of snow for BN3 this weekend is ZERO.

The netweather forecasts chop and change drastically from one model run to the next. What I saw with the first Beasterly was that the Netweather forecasts were predicting snow fall armageddon for a while, then decided it wasn't going to snow at all, then started saying it would snow, but later, then brought that snow forward, then decided that it wouldn't snow, then suddenly decided that, actually, yes it would very late on before the first snow fell.

Seeing it do the same thing this time around: every time a new model run comes out, and the forecasts update, the snow %'s change. It's been flip-flopping all over the place and currently showing no snow for the weekend, but a brief shower of snow on Wednesday (wtf?!).

I believe the Netweather forecasts are automated from the GFS model runs, and from memory the GFS isn't great at predicting convective snow. The wind directions they're predicting for tomorrow and Sunday would seem to put us in the firing line for a streamer, though, so I wouldn't be surprised to be seeing snow falling tomorrow despite the Met Office amber warning implying a Thames streamer (which tends to occur with near direct easterlies) is expected rather than the Kent streamers (north-easterly winds) that hit us last time out.

At this point, probably best to keep an eye on the radar tomorrow morning and see what develops and what direction it's travelling as it starts up.

 

[SpongebobSquarepants]

Forget all this snow talk...when is it gonna get warmer?

Bring on Spring

 

[casbom]

All I know is that it's going to be bloody cold for the next 2 or 3 days with temps close to freezing with a biting wind! Some places will see snow falling and some places will see that snow settle into a few cms.

The vagueness on the official forecasts is due to the LP that is yet to form (I believe) so it's difficult to know how quickly it forms and how far north it gets. It could well form late which means any snow might end up over the west country instead of here. (The fax last night showed something like this).

There is also the problem of the front that is coming down from the NE which is expected to gradually peter out over the SE so not giving us much snow. However some short range models now see this re-invigorating which could give up to 5cm in places (Kent currently favoured for this if it happens) so it's constantly evolving. That's without the added potential Thames Streamer.

So it really will be a case of looking at the radar or looking out the window over both days to see what's happening!

 

[dazzer6666]

All I know is that it's going to be bloody cold for the next 2 or 3 days with temps close to freezing with a biting wind! Some places will see snow falling and some places will see that snow settle into a few cms.

The vagueness on the official forecasts is due to the LP that is yet to form (I believe) so it's difficult to know how quickly it forms and how far north it gets. It could well form late which means any snow might end up over the west country instead of here. (The fax last night showed something like this).

There is also the problem of the front that is coming down from the NE which is expected to gradually peter out over the SE so not giving us much snow. However some short range models now see this re-invigorating which could give up to 5cm in places (Kent currently favoured for this if it happens) so it's constantly evolving. That's without the added potential Thames Streamer.

So it really will be a case of looking at the radar or looking out the window over both days to see what's happening!

.......or sitting motionless in your car somewhere on the M6/M40/M25 at 2am trying to get home from Manchester after 2cm of snow has caused total carnage [emoji33][emoji33][emoji24][emoji24]

 

[Weststander]

What a difference just 35 miles and a little bit of altitide makes. Saturday - Brighton 2c with a dusting of snow/sleet, Biggin Hill -2c with snow all day long, heavy for periods.

 

[Green Gull]

It's looking like the majority of any substantial snow will fall slightly north and to the west of us, as per usual....
With any luck we might get caught in a line of streamer snow showers which could amount to a fair bit. I think It will be hit & miss though.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

 

[Green Gull]

And one of the higher res / shorter range models shows 2 pulses of snow (as [MENTION=1933]Yoda[/MENTION] s chart also shows)

How's this model looking now? Is it still the same projection or have things changed?

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

 

[Guinness Boy]

.......or sitting motionless in your car somewhere on the M6/M40/M25 at 2am trying to get home from Manchester after 2cm of snow has caused total carnage [emoji33][emoji33][emoji24][emoji24]

Could be worse, could be running the Moyleman.....

 

[dazzer6666]

Could be worse, could be running the Moyleman.....

Good point.....luckily I already have that medal. It’s the only race I have done where the RD has finished the race briefing with an apology about how the race is ‘a right bastard’ (direct quote). And that was in ok weather [emoji23][emoji23]

 

[Driver8]

It’s going to be taters in Manchester tomorrow night. I’m wearing my thermals.

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

Have just checked trains from Essex to Manchester for tomorrow to be told by the automatic voice on the phone that "disruption to services out of and into my town are likely to be disrupted due to weather" Cool. So Manchester , famous for shithouse weather, will be cold but sunny. Leigh on sea under heavy flump. Lovely. Piss off weather gods. Just do one.

 

[RandyWanger]

It's snowing and settling over on the South East London / Essex boarders.

 

[casbom]

Really coming down now here in Crawley

 

[Djmiles]

Major flumpage around the Wycombe area en route to the game.

 

[Green Gull]

It's heading straight for us according to the live radar.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

 

[Papa Lazarou]

It's all moving South ish