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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]



Midfield Minton

New member
Dec 18, 2013
266
Car said it was 9.5 all day in NW10 but never felt that warm,only dropped to 8.5 back in brighton,so would agree it's not very cold
 






Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
Xc giving 1.2cm of snow for 9am Thursday with a temp of 5

To give [MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION] his due, at face value that seems odd.

I've been discussing this on Weather Outlook with people far more qualified than me, and there are lots of factors involved. 5C will be the absolute maximum during a period. During showers there are many mechanisms that will reduce local temperatures. Let's see what occurs.
 








Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
Ok, here's the challenge.

Screenshot_2015-01-27-18-14-04.png

What does this suggest?

(That's the very latest GFS ensemble, so latest data)
 




Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
27,230
30% chance of lying snow down here on thursday according to net weather, which is a good sign as they are second to US in debunking so called "cold spells" :moo:

And also a 32% chance next Tuesday. Odd.
 






Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
And also a 32% chance next Tuesday. Odd.

There are signs of the cold / cool / decidedly average conditions to continue into next week, by which time we may in colder / cooler / lower end of average temperatures.
 


Yoda

English & European
Papa, what can the absolute max for the 2m temp be, for snow to be able to fall if the 850hpa temps & HGT 500-1000 are at the right levels?
 








Yoda

English & European
Can someone tell me where this cold is, the 6-10 day forecast shows raging NW's but max temps of 7C on Thursday and 6C on Friday, where is the cold ? This is what it should be for late January

Please try to remember that when you are watching the forecast on the Beeb, that they are talking, in general, about the WHOLE of the British Isles. Not just our little corner.

It will be cold or very cold in the north. Down here, the actual temperature may hit a max of 6 degrees for a few minutes, but because of the wind, the Real Feel (also known to some as wind chill) will be about 1 or 2.
 




Yoda

English & European
Ok, here's the challenge.

View attachment 62349

What does this suggest?

(That's the very latest GFS ensemble, so latest data)

To me, that says the 850hpa temps & HGT 500-1000 doesn't get to the right levels for snow until most of the system has passed through :( and we'll be hinging our bets on showers making it this far south.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,361
Worthing
To me, that says the 850hpa temps & HGT 500-1000 doesn't get to the right levels for snow until most of the system has passed through :( and we'll be hinging our bets on showers making it this far south.

It's definitely showers or a mesoscale feature in the unstable flow, yes. Remember it's a well defined cold front, so narrow, with warm air in front and cold air behind.

Ian Fergusson has suggested a small almost frontal feature that will produce enhanced shower activity down here Wednesday night.

What is does show is the air behind the front is forecast to be cold and unstable.
 


Yoda

English & European
It's definitely showers or a mesoscale feature in the unstable flow, yes. Remember it's a well defined cold front, so narrow, with warm air in front and cold air behind.

Ian Fergusson has suggested a small almost frontal feature that will produce enhanced shower activity down here Wednesday night.

What is does show is the air behind the front is forecast to be cold and unstable.

I have also just noticed looking at the ensembles on Netweather, that they are pretty much in agreement for about a week. How often do you see that?
 










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