[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Papa Lazarou]

Apart from the snow being 24 hours early!

Yep - a day out. Tomorrow looks too mild now. Rain.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

About 1 cm of snow in Newhaven and looks like an inch over the downs so I guess I am now " owned " Still tonight I am sure will be rain with a possibility of snow over the highest downs

 

[VAL1850]

2cm snow in Eastbourne by the hills - 2hour drive to Uckfield to work normaly 35mins

 

[Papa Lazarou]

About 1 cm of snow in Newhaven and looks like an inch over the downs so I guess I am now " owned " Still tonight I am sure will be rain with a possibility of snow over the highest downs

The snow this morning was very 'lucky' - the showers came onto the coast at just the right time (early hours) when air temps were as low as they could be (-1C to -2C) , and there was no onshore breeze either - so in the marginal situation everything was just right. 2 hours later and it would have been sleet for most.

 

[Husty]

2cm snow in Eastbourne by the hills - 2hour drive to Uckfield to work normaly 35mins

#TransportChaos !!!!

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

There is no snow event to come

I look forward to bouncing this

And I did

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Snowing in Newhaven

 

[carteater]

so snow is ruled out down here for tonight then

 

[albion1972]

rain for southcoast....and snow for Crawley and further inland

 

[Midfield Minton]

So what would a dew point of -0.6 mean of it rained

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Depending on where in Cheshire you are, the next couple of days could see snow for you. This is the latest GFS ensemble for your area. High snow percentages.

View attachment 61885

Note, this is for Cheshire not Sussex

It started snowing here about one hour ago - not much so far but definitely white flakey stuff.

 

[Driver8]

Snowing at home in North Wales. Unfortunately I'm in Dumfries.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Snowing at home in North Wales. Unfortunately I'm in Dumfries.

Holiday?

 

[martin tyler]

Lots of wet snow and sleet falling in Firle. Not settling though very wet.

 

[Giraffe]

Surprising chance of snow end of next week?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Surprising chance of snow end of next week?

Too much noise in the possible outputs to say that yet.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=297&y=178

 

[Driver8]

Holiday?

Work

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Surprising chance of snow end of next week?

Ok, having looked at a few models, there is some agreement for a repeat of what we've seen pre-Xmas and this last week; with the Azores High relenting slightly, allowing low pressure to slide SE over the UK, introducing a seemingly temporary NW then N wind.

This is the ECM at 240 hours, so right at the end of it's range:



And this is the GFS Operational at the same time:



Finally GEM shows the same:



As we've seen, this is never great for down here, and where the ECM / GFS / GEM show this the upper temperatures are currently shown to be rather disappointing for Sussex snow.

What we need is the Azores High to ridge over the Low as it slides into Europe, and create a block over Scandinavia, but for the moment, the Atlantic is too vigorous to allow this, as the next low pressure reaches our shores too soon to allow the ridge time to develop.

Without that we won't get either a ridge north to Greenland or NE to Scandi. We need a short lull to allow this.

 

[HalifaxSeagull]

View attachment 62048

At last the 1st decent snowfall at 'low level'...

 

[Yoda]

Ok, having looked at a few models, there is some agreement for a repeat of what we've seen pre-Xmas and this last week; with the Azores High relenting slightly, allowing low pressure to slide SE over the UK, introducing a seemingly temporary NW then N wind.

This is the ECM at 240 hours, so right at the end of it's range:

View attachment 62044

And this is the GFS Operational at the same time:

View attachment 62045

Finally GEM shows the same:

View attachment 62046

As we've seen, this is never great for down here, and where the ECM / GFS / GEM show this the upper temperatures are currently shown to be rather disappointing for Sussex snow.

I noticed that on the 12z GFS run yesterday, needless to say the 18z had a DEEP low centred right over us tracking west to east.