[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Papa Lazarou]

This thread took some finding without the search facility

Anyway - the Met Office have published some Propabilistic Ensemble charts that seem to suggest Nov-Jan has a good chance of being colder than average here....

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20121001/3up_20121001_temp2m_months24_europe_prob_public.png

Worth keeping an eye on these sort of seasonal forecasts... winter can often start very suddenly as we enter November.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

It has felt cold for the last 3 weeks up north.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Plus the newest model output (CFS) is going for a very cold looking setup for January.

This basically shows low pressure (or lower than average) to our SE and High Pressure to our NW... this would produce a NE flow over the UK.

This agrees with the Met Office forecast above.

 

[Camicus]

It has felt cold for the last 3 weeks up north.

Same here but Im 1000ft above sea level

 

[Bozza]

This thread took some finding without the search facility

Not with Google search;

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=site%3Awww.northstandchat.com+more+snow+tomorrow&oq=site%3Awww.northstandchat.com+more+snow+tomorrow&sugexp=chrome,mod=0&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Good bounce anyway, game on for the 2012-13 season!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Not with Google search;

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=site%3Awww.northstandchat.com+more+snow+tomorrow&oq=site%3Awww.northstandchat.com+more+snow+tomorrow&sugexp=chrome,mod=0&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Good bounce anyway, game on for the 2012-13 season!

There are early indications it could be a good one for snow lovers.

 

[Czechmate]

Oh Bollocks ! Don't look too healthy for me on Papa Lazarou's chart !

 

[jevs]

Strangely enough, i was talking to a bird watcher at work yesterday and i happened to mention to him how loaded with berries the hedgerows are along our main roads. Hawthorns, rose hips, sloes etc....there's a super array of colour.

Another sign that we could be in for a cold one.

 

[jakarta]

Strangely enough, i was talking to a bird watcher at work yesterday and i happened to mention to him how loaded with berries the hedgerows are along our main roads. Hawthorns, rose hips, sloes etc....there's a super array of colour.

Another sign that we could be in for a cold one.

Shirley this one is an Urban Myth - how can plants possibly know the upcoming weather?

Mind you I do agree the Fall Colours all around West Sussex are starting to look spectacular......

 

[Hillian1]

Thank you, you have just reminded me to get my boiler serviced.

I f***ing hate winter, snow, sleet, ice, freezing fog et al. does my nut in.

 

[Bean]

I love winter!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I love winter!

Likewise... I also love summer. In fact I love weather, but I hate days like Monday & Tuesday this week, with leaden skies, no wind, and some drizzle. None of that is (IMHO) weather... it's the absence of any useful weather.

 

[jevs]

Shirley this one is an Urban Myth - how can plants possibly know the upcoming weather?

.

Maybe it is but nature is not a force to mess around with. It would, in theory, make sense and it provides the birds and other small mammals with a longer winter harvest if the weather does get tough

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Maybe it is but nature is not a force to mess around with. It would, in theory, make sense and it provides the birds and other small mammals with a longer winter harvest if the weather does get tough

But it does require nature to disobey the laws of physics and causality and know something about the distant future.

 

[willow147]

I wonder if we could get snowed in at the Amex

 

[smeariestbat]

I wonder if we could get snowed in at the Amex

why? we run out of pies and harveys quick enough as it is. would be one epic snowball fight though. north stand versus the rest

 

[casbom]

The signals that we're seeing at the moment are certainly favouring colder weather. Some of signals we're seeing are:

- ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) - Expected to be neutral/slightly Nina (I think, based on the fact that we're in -PDO, which basically stops El Nino from happening). This means that this shouldn't influence our weather very much, which is a good thing!

- Easterly QBO (winds high up above the pole), this helps to disrupt the Polar Vortex if in easterly phase, last year it was in westerly phase which helped promote a Polar Vortex (PV). We want a weak PV because if we have a strong PV in place over Greenland, you can forget about any colder weather in general. A strong PV creates a stronger temp gradient, which in turn creates a stronger jet, which then means blocking highs find it difficult to form. You need blocking highs to get the cold weather to us from the North or East. So a weak jet is best as this can meander, ideally to the south of us!

So you can see that the signals are looking good for cold, however we still are not guaranteed cold as there are other signals which we don't really know yet which way they are going to go. For Example the Stratosphere temp, if this goes very cold (like last year), this can also stop blocking highs from forming so ideally you would want this to at most be average and preferably a bit on the warm side. It's currently cooling on average which is a good thing so far! We need to keep an eye on this as head into winter. The last time we had an average/warmer Strat was two and three years ago, and looked what happened then!

Sorry for going on, but I'm actually quite excited about our snow chances this year!

 

[casbom]

My post got too big! oops

 

[Uwinsc]

Shirley this one is an Urban Myth - how can plants possibly know the upcoming weather?

Mind you I do agree the Fall Colours all around West Sussex are starting to look spectacular......

Funny you should say that about the colours: I thought the colours of the leaves was to do with the amount of sun in the summer e.g. More sun stronger colours so surely they should be less bright this year?

 

[Uwinsc]

In some ways I would like snow this year, one of the students at my work comes from Yemen and has never seen snow so it would be fun to see him experience it for the first time.