[Albion] The Alternative Giraffe Tracker

[Swansman]

Its like arguing with "Solid at the back". Pretty pointless.

 

[andy1980]

And potential means nothing unless the ball is in the net....

Its about indicators. Over the longer period of time Potential should turn into reality. Sadly doesn't mean it will which is a fact I think many people ignore.

 

[Stato]

Good point. At the end of February we should award the league to the team in first, stick the next three in Europe, relegate the current bottom three and decide the rest of the places using the medium of modern dance.


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We are effectively safe with four games left and we're back to within a point of Palace. It's been a very good weekend for us. I know it must be a bit annoying that someone bounced your previous, entirely understandably pessimistic post, just to have a dig, but you could choose to just say that it was a bit of an unnecessary thing to do, but that you're as happy as the rest of us that the squad found a way and that we can now all put this utterly infuriating season behind us and hope for things to be better next year.

 

[B-right-on]

Good point. At the end of February we should award the league to the team in first, stick the next three in Europe, relegate the current bottom three and decide the rest of the places using the medium of modern dance.


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No. You were taking the piss out of him for saying that we'd get more wins (6) between Dec and May because you did not think we would. Don't try to change the point.

We have.

You were wrong.

Care to admit it?

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

Its about indicators. Over the longer period of time Potential should turn into reality. Sadly doesn't mean it will which is a fact I think many people ignore.

Quite.

 

[rogersix]

You missed:

How often you get additional revenue from being picked for TV games once the wall to wall coverage ends;
How much interest you get from neutrals, from international TV audiences and the size of the associated marketing, sponsorship and merchandise markets;
How many tickets you sell to away fans choosing which games to attend and the associated matchday income;
What reputation your club has among youth prospects and their families choosing the best place for their development;
How keen young fans are to come along and become the next generation of season ticket holders;
How much players enjoy their football and the impact of this on their willingness to stay at the club; and of course the small matter of:
Your medium term ability to improve results, climb the league, sustain your progress and move to the next level.

A lot of these things may not matter to you, but they do matter to the bloke who invests the millions and makes the decisions. He's in it for the long term and fans moaning about wanting quick fixes in terms of results just aren't going to change his mind. Recognising this and accepting that, despite the frustrations, we are still, to echo a phrase 'On our way,' is a lot more enjoyable than acting like a bunch of Canutes every time the pace of progress irritates us.

The song goes 'We've come a long long way together, through the hard times and the good,' not 'We've come a long long way together, Why didn't we get here quicker? It's just not good enough! Why aren't we challenging for the Europa league?'

agree with all this except, the ability to attract a quality young striker to fire us to the europa league

 

[Guinness Boy]

No. You were taking the piss out of him for saying that we'd get more wins (6) between Dec and May because you did not think we would. Don't try to change the point.

We have.

You were wrong.

Care to admit it?

You’ve neither read the first post on the thread properly or quoted the correct response from me.


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[andy1980]

Quite.

Its one of the things I'm not 100% convinced with Potter.There is a lot of people rightfully Praising Potter for bringing through the youngsters. Connelly and Alzate last season and Sanchez and White this season. What no one talks about is how Connelly and Alzate haven't progressed and Imposed themselves in the starting line-up this season. I want to see another two youngsters come through next season but I would also want to see the other four flourish. Can Potter make that next step and help our youngsters flourish over a longer term? I am actually excited to see the answer to that next season.

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

Its one of the things I'm not 100% convinced with Potter.There is a lot of people rightfully Praising Potter for bringing through the youngsters. Connelly and Alzate last season and Sanchez and White this season. What no one talks about is how Connelly and Alzate haven't progressed and Imposed themselves in the starting line-up this season. I want to see another two youngsters come through next season but I would also want to see the other four flourish. Can Potter make that next step and help our youngsters flourish over a longer term? I am actually excited to see the answer to that next season.

Don’t necessarily agree with you on this, as youngsters often struggle in their second season.

I think you’re right though re others coming through and hopefully Cochrane and perhaps Ostigard could make it next season. Even Taylor Richards may have a shout.

 

[Stato]

Let's end the baiting of the author of the OP now shall we. The thread was bounced to dig him out for his pessimism. If we're honest, in the dark night of winter, the same things he wrote were at the back of the mind of even the most positive of us at the time. It's turned out good. As the thread was bounced as an attack on him, he's doing what we'd all do and defending his view. There's no reason to pile on. Let's enjoy the weekend that we confirmed our safety and not fight amongst ourselves.

 

[andy1980]

Don’t necessarily agree with you on this, as youngsters often struggle in their second season.

I think you’re right though re others coming through and hopefully Cochrane and perhaps Ostigard could make it next season. Even Taylor Richards may have a shout.

Ostigard to replace White if he moves on and Casedo to replace Bissouma, maybe Khadra for Ali J or Izquirdo. If your right that youngster struggle after 1st season perhaps we might see Sanchez and White (if hes still here) struggle and the re-emergence of Connelly and Alzate have a better season.

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

Ostigard to replace White if he moves on and Casedo to replace Bissouma, maybe Khadra for Ali J or Izquirdo. If your right that youngster struggle after 1st season perhaps we might see Sanchez and White (if hes still here) struggle and the re-emergence of Connelly and Alzate have a better season.

Khadra great call. I’d stupidly forgotten about him.

Hopefully he stays fit as had so much pace.

 

[peterward]

You’ve neither read the first post on the thread properly or quoted the correct response from me.


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I'm in Team GB

 

[Machiavelli]

Does it have to be the full 38 games to ensure that the table doesn’t lie or could we knock the ‘we haven’t improved, we’re worse than last season’ mantra out the park by comparing the 1st half of the season with the 2nd half?

Wow. Thanks for posting. That shows that we're in the relegation zone in terms of goals scored, and only one team has conceded fewer than us.

 

[Barnet Seagull]

4th in XPts at the moment
Bottom half in results.

Tony will know the odds and understand the variance.

Question is,

Will he risk doing little to the squad and trust/expect the players and the statistical variance to keep us safe next season?

or

Spend on a finisher?

Given current financials, this is the gamble I am keen to see.



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[Baldseagull]

It also had me state that it would be interesting to bounce at the end of the season which it would. We could get anything between 37 and 49 points by then. But of course [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] chose to bounce it at a point where it would suit his agenda best. I notice he didn't bother after the Sheffield United game, eh? That sort of shithousery is fine and dandy on NSC, it's practically a tradition, albeit a tradition that is normally carried out from Brighton fan to Brighton fan and not by some weirdly obsessed Nordic stalker who was pissing himself over Swedish Division 3 when we were putting in place the training ground and seeing Hughton start to take a piss poor inherited squad to a side that looked like being Chamionship Champions.

It also had me state that while the original tracker is/was useful (and it still is) the way we're achieving the target is completely divorced from its predictions. That's still true.



I fully acknowledge that our XG is great but it means jack shit in the real world.

I did say I realised the season is not yet done, and Swansman is a bit premature. I know you know that the tracker is not supposed to be an accurate prediction of exactly where the points will come from, but as Bozza pointed out in post #91 , we have by and large taken more points in the games that it suggests we should get points, and not taken so many points in games where it suggests we would get nothing.
The xg is a stat that does not translate directly into points, you could rubbish many stats on that basis, but to me it is like a company with high turnover and small profits, the potential is there to hit big numbers.

 

[Machiavelli]

It also had me state that it would be interesting to bounce at the end of the season which it would. We could get anything between 37 and 49 points by then. But of course [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] chose to bounce it at a point where it would suit his agenda best. I notice he didn't bother after the Sheffield United game, eh? That sort of shithousery is fine and dandy on NSC, it's practically a tradition, albeit a tradition that is normally carried out from Brighton fan to Brighton fan and not by some weirdly obsessed Nordic stalker who was pissing himself over Swedish Division 3 when we were putting in place the training ground and seeing Hughton start to take a piss poor inherited squad to a side that looked like being Chamionship Champions.

It also had me state that while the original tracker is/was useful (and it still is) the way we're achieving the target is completely divorced from its predictions. That's still true.



I fully acknowledge that our XG is great but it means jack shit in the real world.

Do you think this summer, when weighing up where to go, a striker that knows where the onion bag is, probably one that's young and is smart, and is really thinking about their future will:
-- say xG means jack shit, I'll go for the team that achieved one more point than that one that's propped up the bottom quarter of the PL for the past four seasons; or
-- have a look at the xG, recognise that B&HA are fourth in that metric yet currently 14th in the table metric (and in all likelihood to drop lower down it), and work out that the chances Potter's team create is just what his career would benefit from for the next two or three seasons, and will serve as a perfect stepping-stone for said player's career plans

 

[Guinness Boy]

Do you think this summer, when weighing up where to go, a striker that knows where the onion bag is, probably one that's young and is smart, and is really thinking about their future will:
-- say xG means jack shit, I'll go for the team that achieved one more point than that one that's propped up the bottom quarter of the PL for the past four seasons; or
-- have a look at the xG, recognise that B&HA are fourth in that metric yet currently 14th in the table metric (and in all likelihood to drop lower down it), and work out that the chances Potter's team create is just what his career would benefit from for the next two or three seasons, and will serve as a perfect stepping-stone for said player's career plans

Well that may well be true (about the new player) but Maupay is our player now and, unsurprisingly, was on record on a Twitch stream being less than complimentary about xG. He's our player now and cost 20M - we should be developing him.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Let's end the baiting of the author of the OP now shall we. The thread was bounced to dig him out for his pessimism. If we're honest, in the dark night of winter, the same things he wrote were at the back of the mind of even the most positive of us at the time. It's turned out good. As the thread was bounced as an attack on him, he's doing what we'd all do and defending his view. There's no reason to pile on. Let's enjoy the weekend that we confirmed our safety and not fight amongst ourselves.

Thanks

Yesterday was utterly fantastic. I'll save the season success / failure conversation for another thread (though replied just now to Machiavelli because he raised an interesting point in a polite way).

UTA.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I'll do it [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION]

We reached 40 points. Ergo I was wrong.

The other point remains - we beat many sides we weren't supposed to and dropped many points that looked like certainties on the actual tracker.

Still a chance to get our best ever points total. I said on another thread I thought we had a chance to beat City with fans in the ground. Getting a point at Arsenal doesn't seem unrealistic even though that's a 0 on the tracker.

I do think that having something that just tracks us surviving next season is aiming far too low. I know that thread is almost universally adored on here but with a good summer window we really should be tracking progress against at least 50 points and beating Palace in the table next season. That's the next step.