[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[Greg Bobkin]

Betfair odds are roughly Trump 60 / 40 Harris as we enter the big day.

Listening to 5Live as I was over the Downs with the dog from 6am and Trump was rambling on and on in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

We know that's the last campaign rally he'll ever do for himself. Let's hope that in no more than a few days from now he's finished as a political force. The alternative is quite chilling to consider.

"He's no finished, he's only 78!"

 

[Triggaaar]

I've never understood why this is so controversial. The agreement is 2% and we all defend each other. Why should one country lose lives of their citizens to protect another that didn't stick to the deal?

I get that the way he says it is confrontational, antagonistic and uncomfortable, but I think the underlying sentiment is correct, and is probably good for NATO in the long run.

Yeah of all the shit that nasty narcissist had come out with, that one I'm ok with. He was just telling people to pay their share.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I'm not sure why people place SO much faith, if you can call it that, in betting markets that fluctuate so wildly (as everyone knows).

I'm also not sure why so many people believe stuff that Trump says when he has a long history of talking shit. On the subject of his plan to kick out the "20-25 million" illegal immigrants (or, as Trump would put it, people from insane asylums), there was a great deep-dive by John Oliver last week about why his plan is either unworkable or would cost the country trillions and severely damage the economy. But people lap up the veiled (or sometimes not so veiled) racism like it was water in a desert.

I genuinely think he'll hate doing the job. The rallies are what gets him going. Doing the job of president? Not so much. Mainly because there's not much in it for him!

 

[US Seagull]

Trump would probably argue bigly that it wasn't !

He would argue that water isn't wet. Water makes things wet.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

What I find more worrying is that this comment you are responding to was made less than 6 after posts after responses to a similar point made only on the page before.

It is almost as if some people just keep saying the same thing again and again in the expectation it will eventually become true.

The communications equivalent to the thing that Einstein said was the definition of insanity.

 

[US Seagull]

I'm not sure why people place SO much faith, if you can call it that, in betting markets that fluctuate so wildly (as everyone knows).

I'm also not sure why so many people believe stuff that Trump says when he has a long history of talking shit. On the subject of his plan to kick out the "20-25 million" illegal immigrants (or, as Trump would put it, people from insane asylums), there was a great deep-dive by John Oliver last week about why his plan is either unworkable or would cost the country trillions and severely damage the economy. But people lap up the veiled (or sometimes not so veiled) racism like it was water in a desert.

I genuinely think he'll hate doing the job. The rallies are what gets him going. Doing the job of president? Not so much. Mainly because there's not much in it for him!

RE: the betting markets. You only have to look at the betting marking that is Trump Media and Technology Group's stock price (DJT). It's totally unhinged from any kind of objective reality or financial fundamentals. At one point DJT was, according to the stock price, worth more than X.

It's a meme stock. And the betting market is the same. It's a meme bet.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

RE: the betting markets. You only have to look at the betting marking that is Trump Media and Technology Group's stock price (DJT). It's totally unhinged from any kind of objective reality or financial fundamentals. At one point DJT was, according to the stock price, worth more than X.

It's a meme stock. And the betting market is the same. It's a meme bet.

Exactly!

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Whisper it, but Harris is..... uninspiring and robotic.

I am not a fan of charisma wars, where Johnson beats Starmer hands down.

But a little bit of something would be nice.

Does she not have a mother who was a nurse and a father who was a carpenter or anything?

Sorry, I'll get my coat.

 

[nwgull]

You think that's bad? I saw this a couple months back and I totally wanted to shake this stupid woman:



So her husband is undocumented. Was brought to the country at the age of five. They have a little girl on the way. She voted for Trump in 2020. But now, Democrats introduced a policy to make it easier for her husband to legalize his status and provide security for her family. Trump has, in contrast, vowed to round up and deport her husband and the father of her unborn child. So, of course, she is...UNDECIDED!

FFS. WHAT MORE DO YOU F**KING WANT?!?!

She deserves to see him deported so he can go back south and find a new woman with a brain.

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

I think Trump wins. Hope I'm wrong but I think he'll do it.

Appropriately I don't have any facts to back up my claim other than this feels a bit like pre brexit and pre the first trump presidency. The fuckers going to do it.

 

[US Seagull]

She deserves to see him deported so he can go back south and find a new woman with a brain.

On the one hand, he's going to deport my husband. But on the other hand, she has a weird laugh...

 

[US Seagull]

So one thing on the most recent polls. I would assume, since early voting has started, most (all?) pollers are starting their polls with "have you voted yet?". If you answer "yes" they have to say "thank you" and leave it at that. They don't want to be releasing an exit poll before the polls have even opened (for in-person voting) let alone closed. Early exit polling was a huge problem back in 2000 when some outlets were calling Florida before polls had even closed in the panhandle (which had a later poll closing time).

So that makes me think, if (and I don't know if this is the case), early voting has broken heavily for Harris, then the only people left to poll are naturally slanted to Trump. Which is to say, you'd expect the pre-election polls to tighten.

 

[marlowe]

How would you feel if Russia invaded the UK and the US said, listen guys just give Russia Essex, Kent and Sussex

Essex maybe, but I'd draw the line at Kent and Sussex

 

[Mellotron]

Whisper it, but Harris is..... uninspiring and robotic.

The way I see it - the choice is like a choice between a plate of bland, unseasoned, overcooked plain chicken, and an ACTUAL BOWL OF SHIT. ACTUAL FAECES.

Just eat the f***ing chicken, stop complaining it's not perfect, otherwise you will be eating actual excrement. Just let's all agree to avoid the shit, and we'll figure out about the chicken not being great later.

 

[Mellotron]

So one thing on the most recent polls. I would assume, since early voting has started, most (all?) pollers are starting their polls with "have you voted yet?". If you answer "yes" they have to say "thank you" and leave it at that.

Thank goodness the concept of LYING was never invented, eh?

 

[Triggaaar]

The way I see it - the choice is like a choice between a plate of bland, unseasoned, overcooked plain chicken, and an ACTUAL BOWL OF SHIT. ACTUAL FAECES.

Just eat the f***ing chicken, stop complaining it's not perfect, otherwise you will be eating actual excrement. Just avoid the shit, and we'll figure out about the chicken not being great later.

I agree, with the caveat that I think the chicken might actually be nice. I don't want to try the shit no matter who made it.

 

[Mellotron]

I agree, with the caveat that I think the chicken might actually be nice. I don't want to try the shit no matter who made it.

The chicken will not do you any significant harm, and will contain nutritional value (ie it'll do you good in ways you don't probably recognise). EVEN if it is a bit bland and boring, it is LIGHTYEARS ahead of eating shit.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

She deserves to see him deported so he can go back south and find a new woman with a brain.

Some examples of cognitive dissonance appear to have the same presentation as psychotic mental illness, it appears.

For any sort of level of understanding of this one must refer to Hans Christian Anderson' tale of the Emperor's New Clothes.

 

[herecomesaregular]

C'mon women of America, it's all down to you now.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Whisper it, but Harris is..... uninspiring and robotic.

I am not a fan of charisma wars, where Johnson beats Starmer hands down.

But a little bit of something would be nice.

Does she not have a mother who was a nurse and a father who was a carpenter or anything?

Sorry, I'll get my coat.

I don't get this need from people for 'personalities' or 'characters' in positions of power. Not just in politics, the same goes for football, business, music, whatever.

If someone is good at what they do, just let them get on with it