[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[Zeberdi]

I can't imagine that there'd be that many undecideds in an election that involves Donald Trump.

Something that gives me hope is that, based on the 2020 election, the Democrats seem to have a very capable set of activists in various swing states that encourage both voter registration and getting to the polls at the election itself. Georgia, for example, had been a Republican win every 4 years since '92 when Clinton was first elected - it stayed red even during both of Obama's wins - but it turned blue last time out. Tighter than a gnat's chuff, admitedly, but encouraging.

You are right of course but there are enough undecideds to swing it.

3 million voters spread across key States are undecided - in an election that has such fine margins (as it was in 2020, the slightest swing either way could tip the balance in favour of Trump or Biden.

Here are the only swing voters you need to care about in 2024

One percent of the US population spread across seven states could decide this election.

www.motherjones.com

Again, I think you are right, the key for the Democrats will be to voter turnout - the other issue will be the Dems holding on to seats in the Senate in States that voted for Trump last time round and holding on to others in marginal constituencies. Biden must improve his approval ratings to win the Senate in November.

While Biden and Trump each won 25 states in 2020, Biden won far more of them by very narrow margins. As a result, Senate Democrats are much more dependent than Republicans on states that lean their way only slightly in the presidential contest.

‘In 2020, Biden won three states by less than a single percentage point: Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. He won three others by less than 3 percentage points: Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan. Democrats now hold 11 of the 12 Senate seats from those six highly competitive states. (Ron Johnson of Wisconsin is the only Republican senator from these states.)’

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/12/politics/senate-democrats-biden-election-analysis/index.html

 

[peterward]

Extraordinary testimony yesterday in the Biden impeachment hoax.

A couple of weeks back the FBI arrested the alleged star witness in the Biden/Burisma bribes, Hunter Biden nonsense ("Biden crime family" "Mr 10%"), which was the prelude to the current Biden impeachment hoax.

Yesterday Lev Parnas took the stand, he was Trump and Guillianis fixer to try and dish the dirt and create the false narrative who has now turned witness. What a disgraceful charade this is. And yet MAGA loons still won't wake up.

 

[Stat Brother]

I saw a post Oscars interview with Trump.

He was so pleased Kimmel read his abuse right before Best Picture Award.
I have no idea why JK gave him the oxygen, and keeps doing so.

 

[Badger Boy]

"Isn't it past your jail time?"

Everyone in the room laughing at Trump. I think it was well worth it.

 

[Stat Brother]

"Isn't it past your jail time?"

Everyone in the room laughing at Trump. I think it was well worth it.

'No such thing as bad publicity'.

Trump was full of it 'they needed me', 'they spoke about me before the biggest award'.

Sure he's only appealing to his base but nevertheless Kimmel is still feeding the troll, every single night.
I enjoy it, most of it is funny, but I can't help thinking the only winner is Donny and he's the last person you want winning at anything.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Apparently his social media company, Truth Social, is about to go public. Possibly $3bn dollars on the table.

 

[Triggaaar]

Yep. Unless Trump failed to deliver on key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him last time, one can understand such voters going for Trump again.

But he did fail to deliver on his promises. He promised to build a wall. He didn't. Immigrants kept arriving and taking their jobs.

I'd be surprised if he delivered any of his promises.

 

[Bodian]

Apparently his social media company, Truth Social, is about to go public. Possibly $3bn dollars on the table.

It's astonishing how he does it isn't it.

Trump could net $3bn after investors approve Truth Social to go public

Plan approved by vote of shareholders in Digital World Acquisition, with which Trump’s business sought to combine

www.theguardian.com

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

But he did fail to deliver on his promises. He promised to build a wall. He didn't. Immigrants kept arriving and taking their jobs.

I'd be surprised if he delivered any of his promises.

My caveat was "key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him". Their wealth won't have been affected by the wall, built or not. And their sense of freedom would derive from a sense that Trump was making them feel more free (if that's what he has claimed). He will also claim the wall has been built (a tiny bit has) or that its completion has been blocked by traitors (probably led by crooked Hillary). And his supporters will agree.

The reality is that most American voters are neither advantaged nor disadvantaged by any president ("Roosevelt New Deal", and Reagan's tax cutting and public spending cutting being exceptions). And it is all about what the supporters (his especially) think. Or feel, I should say.

There is a poster on here, largely sensible as far as I can see, whose feeling is that Trump is a better option than Biden. And so it goes.

 

[Triggaaar]

My caveat was "key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him". Their wealth won't have been affected by the wall, built or not.

Immigration does affect the wealth of the population, as immigrants take jobs etc. Trump would also argue that immigrants commit crime, which affects people's wealth.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Immigration does affect the wealth of the population, as immigrants take jobs etc. Trump would also argue that immigrants commit crime, which affects people's wealth.

That's correct.

So, since you're arguing with me, I deduce you think that Trumps loyal supporters will feel poorer and less free because they realize he failed with the wall, and will therefore vote for Biden.

Only time will tell, of course, but that isn't my expectation.

I wonder what @lasvegan thinks?

 

[Pavilionaire]

As always, it will depend on who captures he swing voters and undecideds. Do you prefer the doddery old gentleman, who seems nice but appears forgetful and indecisive, or the bombastic loudmouth who says what you may want to hear but is only in it for himself?

There are plenty of YouTube videos from eminent medical people who are saying whilst Biden's cognitive slowdown is due to old age, Trump's memory recall is far more alarming and symptomatic of dementia.

At times he can't seem to tell the difference between Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi, Biden and Obama, or recall clearly what he did and didn't accomplish in his first term from what Obama or Biden have done.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Exactly this. You understand!

Update....

At the end of the day either Trump will win or he won't. I assume there must be swing voters in America or one or other party will always win. I would imagine they have mostly made up their minds now.

Here are some numbers from Wiki accessed today

 

[Triggaaar]

So, since you're arguing with me, I deduce you think that Trumps loyal supporters will feel poorer and less free because they realize he failed with the wall, and will therefore vote for Biden.

I think his supporters will vote for him again, despite the fact that he didn't do what he said he would the first time, because they're too stupid to think.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I think his supporters will vote for him again, despite the fact that he didn't do what he said he would the first time, because they're too stupid to think.

I suspect we largely agree, as usual

 

[schmunk]

Oh Trump always looks finds a way out of the fox hole - like floating Truth Social on the financial market for example

Donald Trump's social media company set to go public - potentially netting him $3bn

The former US president is grappling with a number of legal cases against him - including the fallout from a $454m judgement in a civil fraud case in New York.

news.sky.com

I wouldn’t like to be a shareholder in any of Trump’s enterprises frankly - I would be surprised if Trump’s Truth Social even provided the cash he needs to pay his $454 bond to NY given his history of fraud and deception - it is likely his shares are highly overinflated and he will find it difficult to dump them to raise funds imo. Also -can you imagine Truth Social, the hotbed of fake narratives it is, to withstand the increased regulatory oversight and public scrutiny that comes with public companies? It does not bode well for a man that has prided himself in private investment port folios and regarding any government interference in his business affairs as witch-hunts .

There is no way that any serious corporate investor (pension schemes, mutuals, etc.) is going to put a lump of money into this business, which made losses of $50M on turnover of $3M last year and has no reasonable plans to achieve breakeven, let alone profit. Because of this, the notional $6bn value is a nonsense and there's no chance that he'll get the $454M bond he urgently needs on the back of this.

 

[beorhthelm]

There is no way that any serious corporate investor (pension schemes, mutuals, etc.) is going to put a lump of money into this business, which made losses of $50M on turnover of $3M last year and has no reasonable plans to achieve breakeven, let alone profit. Because of this, the notional $6bn value is a nonsense and there's no chance that he'll get the $454M bond he urgently needs on the back of this.

the merger it's done, renames as Trump Media from Monday. no idea how funded but the valuation is there. though his stock would be locked for some time, he might be able to borrow against them. jammy git.

 

[schmunk]

the merger it's done, renames as Trump Media from Monday. no idea how funded but the valuation is there. though his stock would be locked for some time, he might be able to borrow against them. jammy git.

Yes, but do you think the shares will be worth anything like their current quoted price in 6 months time, the delay which Trump has to observe before being able to sell shares or use them as collateral?

 

[beorhthelm]

Yes, but do you think the shares will be worth anything like their current quoted price in 6 months time, the delay which Trump has to observe before being able to sell shares or use them as collateral?

i cant fathom the value now, let alone 6mth. nontheless, he has a substantial increase in net worth that can be securitised.

 

[peterward]

Apparently his social media company, Truth Social, is about to go public. Possibly $3bn dollars on the table.

Its Man City Sponsorship levels of corruption in that valuation.

It was losing loads of money, mooted to go under at one point. This shell company bidding for truth social, is just a mechanism for greedy billionaires who want his deregulation and tax cuts + foreign actors who want his chaos and puppet subserviance to hand him the cash he needs.

Like someone putting together a dodgy entity to buy your car for 3 million.