[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[Zeberdi]

Separation of church and state wouldn't go amiss either

Its more a case of separation of religion and politics in America rather than an issue with the ‘Church’ - politicians with strong religious/fundamental views (Christian/Jewish) being the problem when it starts to influence political ideology and policy -

When we talk about ‘separation of church and state’ we are usually referring to the institution of the Church. America not having an ‘established church’ or State religion like we do in England doesn’t have similar constitutional issues.

 

[lasvegan]

I have a background in law and have never heard that expression applied to the decisions of the Supreme Court - that’s a new one to me - in any event SCOTUS will be ruling on several Constitutional issues that haven’t come before the Courts before so won’t be doing anything very ‘quickly’ imo - Obviously the existing conservative bias on the Supreme Court is unlikely to uphold the decision of the State Supreme Court of Colorado if they apply a very conservative interpretation of the Constitution but I think the Court risks being embroiled in even more political controversy than it already has in recent years if it is not seen to at least deliberate very carefully on what the Constitution says on these issues..

I can’t make out if you are pro trump/republican or pro dems from your comments but I suspect you support Trump ( sorry if that’s not the case).

Of course the Colorado decision is going to appear political to Trump supporters - they just ruled a President is barred from standing for Public office if he is guilty of insurrection - they have referred to the Supreme Court for clarification and guidance on interpretation of the Constitution but applying the law as laid down in the Constitution is essentially the reasoning. Problem is Trump supporters don’t think he is guilty of insurrection ( or if he was, he is immune from prosecution)

He has never been charged for insurrection, let alone been found guilty.

 

[lasvegan]

Separation of church and state wouldn't go amiss either

This has absolutely nothing to do with this conversation.

 

[Nobby]

He has never been charged for insurrection, let alone been found guilty.

Out of interest do you think Trump will support funding Ukraine?

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

He has never been charged for insurrection, let alone been found guilty.

Give time there’s along way to go. my advice is to invest in popcorn.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

He has never been charged for insurrection, let alone been found guilty.

Charges and court cases to date

Tracking the Trump criminal cases: Latest on legal charges and key players

A definitive guide to the key players and legal risks in the four criminal probes of the former president.

www.politico.com

 

[Curious Orange]

He has never been charged for insurrection, let alone been found guilty.

Trump has always argued that as President he has absolute immunity, SCOTUS are due to be looking at whether this actually applies in criminal cases.

If they rule that it does then any President can do whatever they like during their time in office and not be charged with a crime for it afterwards, including starting an insurrection or attempting a coup, maybe even murder someone. Does that trouble you?

 

[nwgull]

From where I stand the US economy looks to be performing well in the aftermath of Covid and with inflation coming under control, and if it's any indication, the three main stock indices are at record highs (all over 20% higher than when Biden was inaugurated). So genuine question: what is it that the current administration has done so badly to cause a sufficient number of people that voted for Biden in key states in 2020 to have watched everything that Trump has done in the aftermath and thought 'hmmm, let's put him back in charge'?

 

[Mellotron]

From where I stand the US economy looks to be performing well in the aftermath of Covid and with inflation coming under control, and if it's any indication, the three main stock indices are at record highs (all over 20% higher than when Biden was inaugurated). So genuine question: what is it that the current administration has done so badly to cause a sufficient number of people that voted for Biden in key states in 2020 to have watched everything that Trump has done in the aftermath and thought 'hmmm, let's put him back in charge'?

This is why I struggle to see a Trump win.

Most neutrals appear to acknowledge that Biden has done a decent job, by and large, and that so many do judge (rightly orwrongly) on the state of the economy.

Further, what NEW fans does Trump have that he didn't have 3 years ago? That's the bit I really don't get. Who wouldn't have voted for him 3 years ago but now thinks yeah?

 

[pb21]

Most neutrals appear to acknowledge that Biden has done a decent job, by and large, and that so many do judge (rightly orwrongly) on the state of the economy.

Thing is there are many indicators that a recession is coming in the US (and we all know what happens when the US catches a cold...). So whilst the economy looks OK, or good even, at the moment it might not be the case in a few months...

 

[nwgull]

This is why I struggle to see a Trump win.

Most neutrals appear to acknowledge that Biden has done a decent job, by and large, and that so many do judge (rightly orwrongly) on the state of the economy.

Further, what NEW fans does Trump have that he didn't have 3 years ago? That's the bit I really don't get. Who wouldn't have voted for him 3 years ago but now thinks yeah?

You and I are on the same wavelength. However, the polls seem to be consistently pointing to a Trump win in the key states and an improvement on his popular vote overall.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Red wave incoming. The Donald is going to win BIGLY

 

[carlzeiss]

I wonder if the situation at the southern border will be a significant factor in deciding the outcome of the 2024 election , after all it was Biden that urged everyone to " surge the border " back in 2019

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

There's a certain grinding inevitabilty about Trump's re-election in 2024. At which point that idiot nation Amerika becomes a Rogue State and a global threat

 

[Hugo Rune]

This is why I struggle to see a Trump win.

Most neutrals appear to acknowledge that Biden has done a decent job, by and large, and that so many do judge (rightly orwrongly) on the state of the economy.

Further, what NEW fans does Trump have that he didn't have 3 years ago? That's the bit I really don't get. Who wouldn't have voted for him 3 years ago but now thinks yeah?

Blacks and Hispanics apparently. Why? I’ve got absolutely no idea.

 

[Mellotron]

Blacks and Hispanics apparently. Why? I’ve got absolutely no idea.

Bizarre. What has he done in the last 3 years to make them go " Actually, this guy is alright after all"?!

I really don't get it.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Bizarre. What has he done in the last 3 years to make them go " Actually, this guy is alright after all"?!

I really don't get it.

Biden got an astonishing 92% of the Black Vote in 2020. I suppose it’s a case of not being able to maintain that huge percentage amongst all the political gas lighting and straight-out lying you see in that county.

Black voters showed their power in 2023 elections. Here’s why they could pick the president in 2024.

Black voters showed their power in the 2023 races from Virginia to Ohio. Here's why they could pick the next president in 2024.

eu.usatoday.com

 

[Mental Lental]

You and I are on the same wavelength. However, the polls seem to be consistently pointing to a Trump win in the key states and an improvement on his popular vote overall.

"the polls" are mostly obtained by cold calling land lines in the states. Who bothers to answer their landlines at all in this day and age? Who even still has a landline? Mainly Boomers. Who are skewed to Trump. Hardly anybody under 30 is being included in these "polls". Gen Z are coming for Trump even if he is still on the ballot come Nov 2024....Which I very much doubt.

 

[nwgull]

"the polls" are mostly obtained by cold calling land lines in the states. Who bothers to answer their landlines at all in this day and age? Who even still has a landline? Mainly Boomers. Who are skewed to Trump. Hardly anybody under 30 is being included in these "polls". Gen Z are coming for Trump even if he is still on the ballot come Nov 2024....Which I very much doubt.

I’d love to agree with you, but the results that any polling company worth its name puts out are a bit more sophisticated than than just presenting percentages of raw data. They’ll factor in the leaning of the demographic appriately.

Besides, all polling companies overestimated Biden’s popular vote last time. He won by 4.5%, but some polls had the gap as high as 14%. My hope is that they’ve changed their methodologies (which is very likely) and that they’ve overcompensated.

 

[Mental Lental]

2 things - 3 years ago the Republican vote (prior to the primaries) was more split - this time, Trump has way more support amongst Republican voters - he’s concentrated the vote and is miles ahead of the next nearest Republican candidate - Republicans are seeing Trump as the only one who can beat Biden. Secondly, it is not so much the Republicans increasing the vote but the difficulty getting out the Biden vote. His popularity is at a term low with 53% disapproval rate amongst the American public.



Really? In the US most polling organisations conduct online polls. One of the largest polls tracking US political opinion, Pew Research, conduct polls online opinion as does Reuters/Ipsos poll and the Ramussen polls for example so I would have thought actually target very well the people you are suggesting are excluded.

https://www.pewresearch.org/our-methods/u-s-surveys/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-vs-trump-would-be-close-rematch-with-rfk-jr-threat-biden-reutersipsos-poll-2023-12-12/

I bet even online....the data sample is skewed in favour of the 30+. Regardless of how accurate polls are these days, I do think it is amazing that modern polling is showing that hideous man as even being in the ballpark of being able to win. Hopefully he's either off the ballot or convicted of one of his myriad crimes before it even comes to that. He's been looking pretty rough healthwise IMO and those court cases have got to be getting his ticker fluttering. Maybe we'll all get lucky and he'll end up having a heart attack or something before he can carry out his ambition of being Hitler 2: Electric Boogaloo.