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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%

  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


lasvegan

Well-known member
Jan 30, 2009
2,201
Sin City
Genuinely the first time I’ve seen anyone use the Daily Caller to back their argument.

I’m assuming you’re not familiar with its ludicrous content.
Maybe you can pick out some of the more ludicrous content for me, as opposed to attacking the source.
 




The Clamp

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 11, 2016
26,204
West is BEST
Maybe you can pick out some of the more ludicrous content for me, as opposed to attacking the source.
Well, by posting some of the ludicrous content, as per your request, I’d be attacking the source.

Nevertheless…

There’s it’s obsession with the colour of voter's skin;



And I quite enjoy it’s bizarre coverage of the nonsense Trump gets up to;




 


lasvegan

Well-known member
Jan 30, 2009
2,201
Sin City
Well, by posting some of the ludicrous content, as per your request, I’d be attacking the source.

Nevertheless…

There’s it’s obsession with the colour of voter's skin;



And I quite enjoy it’s bizarre coverage of the nonsense Trump gets up to;




I thought we were discussing sanctuary cities?
 










BadFish

Huge Member
Oct 19, 2003
18,216
Just to confirm you are in agreement with what a sanctuary city is you were more taking issue with the claims over lower crime rates etc?

I didn't fully read the article you posted because it had the air of u reference hyperbole. I did read a sentence that claimed that sanctuary cities had a higher crime rate but there were no stat's to back up this claim (another reason I didn't bother to read on).

It strikes me though that if you are sure of your claim it would have been better to post some actually crime rate comparisons.

Forgive me if I have misconstrued your post as I am at work. I'll have a proper look later.

Edit: a quick google finds a study into crime rates and sanctuary cities.


Discussion
The results of this paper indicate that a sanctuary policy has a negative effect on property crime, and some subcategories also show a negative effect. The results for homicide and robbery imply no effect of the policy, while Martínez-Schuldt and Martínez (2017) found no effect on homicide but a negative effect on robbery. The negative binomial regression in Appendix B.4 confirms the negative effect of the policy. In addition, the DIDM results suggest there may be a long-run effect on the

Conclusion
This paper investigates whether sanctuary policies increase crime, using a city-level variation of implementation timing from 1999 to 2010. The results show that sanctuary policies do not cause an increase in crime. Instead, sanctuary policies lead to a decrease in the property crime rate. The main regression results do not confirm the pre-trend. The results show no positive effect of the policy and find the effect for the property crime strengthened over time. Moreover, the policy does not...
 


Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,274
Cumbria
I would love to see the source of this BS…

Which bits are bullshit? Are you contesting the more factual statements (ie: lower crime rates - see BadFish above), or are you just saying it's bullshit because you don't like views that don't align with yours?
 






carlzeiss

Well-known member
May 19, 2009
6,236
Amazonia
Seems strange to me that Democrat leaders would be opposed to deporting migrants that have committed serious crimes but i guess there is some logic behind this


Eric Adams Wants to Deport Migrants Who Are Accused of Serious Crimes​

Democratic leaders of the City Council said they had no intention of changing New York City’s sanctuary laws to allow Mayor Adams to have his way.
 






Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,962
The Telegraph putting its reputation on the line and depicting that Harris will win the election


Meanwhile Politic describes the election race as a ‘knife fight in a phone booth’ - with just 4 weeks to go, most other media outlets and polls still saying the election is a toss up with poll results within the margin of error for both candidates.

Harris is marginally ahead in the Rust Belt swing states of Michigan, Penn and Wisconsin but those are also the States where polls have underestimated Trump’s support in the past two elections.

Harris is opening up another path to victory by polling strongly and closing the gap on Trump in the swing Sun Belt States of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and NC putting her within the margin of error.

However, Harris is still trailing in the final tally and Trump would win the election if the polls were accurate and the election were held today.



EDIT

Posted in case anyone is actually interested in how the election is actually going as opposed to this continual mudslinging and counter trolling with CD and Lasvegan ☹️
 
Last edited:


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,200
Goldstone
Maybe you can pick out some of the more ludicrous content for me, as opposed to attacking the source.

I thought we were discussing sanctuary cities?

You're using a ridiculous source, as Clamp has said. You've asked him to show how it's ridiculous, so he did. And then you complain that he's off topic. :facepalm:
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,763
Chandlers Ford

Discussion
The results of this paper indicate that a sanctuary policy has a negative effect on property crime, and some subcategories also show a negative effect. The results for homicide and robbery imply no effect of the policy, while Martínez-Schuldt and Martínez (2017) found no effect on homicide but a negative effect on robbery. The negative binomial regression in Appendix B.4 confirms the negative effect of the policy. In addition, the DIDM results suggest there may be a long-run effect on the

Conclusion
This paper investigates whether sanctuary policies increase crime, using a city-level variation of implementation timing from 1999 to 2010. The results show that sanctuary policies do not cause an increase in crime. Instead, sanctuary policies lead to a decrease in the property crime rate. The main regression results do not confirm the pre-trend. The results show no positive effect of the policy and find the effect for the property crime strengthened over time. Moreover, the policy does not...
The use of the term ‘negative’ in that paper’s findings is problematic to readers of a non-scientific background, I’d suggest.
 




Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,962
The use of the term ‘negative’ in that paper’s findings is problematic to readers of a non-scientific background, I’d suggest.
it’s an article that is also 3 years old and doesn’t relate to this election.

Project 25 and how a second Trump term will impact these cities are probably more relevant than getting stuck on the minutae of how the administration works in these cities.


 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,962
Seems strange to me that Democrat leaders would be opposed to deporting migrants that have committed serious crimes but i guess there is some logic behind this


Eric Adams Wants to Deport Migrants Who Are Accused of Serious Crimes​

Democratic leaders of the City Council said they had no intention of changing New York City’s sanctuary laws to allow Mayor Adams to have his way.
A bit disingenuous imo to describe a City Council’s leaders as ‘Democratic leaders’ in the context of a debate about national elections when they have nothing to do with the Presidential election nor the leaders of the Democratic Party - . Adams is an ex-police captain so has always had a strong anti-crime agenda - he’s not advocating an end to sanctuary status to NYC but advocating that migrants who have committed serious crimes should be deported. News media always seeks a story and the best stories are those that might reveal discord - that can give them more airtime than is warranted and unduly magnify their significance in the broader political landscape.

It is a bit like conflating local government elections in the UK with the General Election in the UK or the election of the Mayor of London with the election of prime minister when they in fact have their own local and/or city specific manifestos and policy approaches. The current mayor of NY isn’t up for election until November 2025.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,171
Faversham
A bit disingenuous imo to describe a City Council’s leaders as ‘Democratic leaders’ in the context of a debate about national elections when they have nothing to do with the Presidential election nor the leaders of the Democratic Party - . Adams is an ex-police captain so has always had a strong anti-crime agenda - he’s not advocating an end to sanctuary status to NYC but advocating that migrants who have committed serious crimes should be deported. News media always seeks a story and the best stories are those that might reveal discord - that can give them more airtime than is warranted and unduly magnify their significance in the broader political landscape.

It is a bit like conflating local government elections in the UK with the General Election in the UK or the election of the Mayor of London with the election of prime minister when they in fact have their own local and/or city specific manifestos and policy approaches. The current mayor of NY isn’t up for election until November 2025.
I wonder whether it is worthwhile attempting to communicate facts to people who still think there is a mountain of evidence relating to hot items such as sanctuary status to support their position that it would be better to have Trump in the White House than any democrat, whether an old white bloke or a much younger mixed race woman, or indeed any other republican?

I have a hypothesis. Some people have 'gone' for Trump in much the same way some aging women went for Cliff Richard and remain 'gone', and some cockney wankas have 'gone' for Manchester United. There is nothing that can be said or shown that would diminish their commitment.

And there is a mountain of tiny 'facts' that they can flop out, to 'prove' their judgement is correct. United are the best right now because they have won more trophies. Cliff is the best singer today because he has sold more records. And they have absolutely no shame about moving swiftly on to a new 'fact' each time their previous 'fact' has been shown to be irrelevant or incorrect.

As always, I salute the indefatigability of the teachers on this thread. :bowdown:
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,962
I wonder whether it is worthwhile attempting to communicate facts to people who still think there is a mountain of evidence relating to hot items such as sanctuary status to support their position that it would be better to have Trump in the White House than any democrat, whether an old white bloke or a much younger mixed race woman, or indeed any other republican?



As always, I salute the indefatigability of the teachers on this thread. :bowdown:
I wonder whether you should have directed that comment at those posters I was asking a few days ago to refrain from dominating the thread with their endless mudslingers matches with CD? Instead, unless I misunderstood what you meant, you seemed to be saying quite clearly that my suggestion that they put CD on ignore was not the right thing to do since it would ‘give them the floor’ ( my expression) .

I agree with you completely however, that anyone can find ‘facts’ to support political POVs, political leaders do it all the time, including selective use of resources. That’s the nature of politics.

Personally I am willing to engage with anyone regardless of their political views provide thiy stick to the issues and they do not attack people personally which @carlzeiss did not do. Nor did he post anything that wasn’t true. He’s not a WUM nor a troll just further to the right than I am on the political spectrum so I challenged the emphasis he was placing on a minor story and his motives for doing so,.

Back on topic - Anyone who thinks there isn’t a real and genuine debate going in amongst the American electorate over policy are seriously underestimating the influence policy is having over voting intention. Despite American Presidential elections being very much about the cult of personality, and despite the inexplicable cult of Trump, they are less so than they used to be and the personalities involved are not the sum of it in a very tight election race. At this stage, swing voters are those ambivalent to the personalities and have not been swayed one way or another by them, it will be policy not personalities that will sway them and very likely possibly determine the outcome of the election.
 




Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,171
Faversham
I wonder whether you should have directed that comment at those posters I was asking a few days ago to refrain from dominating the thread with their endless mudslingers matches with CD? Instead, unless I misunderstood what you meant, you seemed to be saying quite clearly that my suggestion that they put CD on ignore was not the right thing to do since it would ‘give them the floor’ ( my expression) .

I agree with you completely however, that anyone can find ‘facts’ to support political POVs, political leaders do it all the time, including selective use of resources. That’s the nature of politics.

Personally I am willing to engage with anyone regardless of their political views provide thiy stick to the issues and they do not attack people personally which @carlzeiss did not do. Nor did he post anything that wasn’t true. He’s not a WUM nor a troll just further to the right than I am on the political spectrum so I challenged the emphasis he was placing on a minor story and his motives for doing so,.

Back on topic - Anyone who thinks there isn’t a real and genuine debate going in amongst the American electorate over policy are seriously underestimating the influence policy is having over voting intention. Despite American Presidential elections being very much about the cult of personality, and despite the inexplicable cult of Trump, they are less so than they used to be and the personalities involved are not the sum of it in a very tight election race. At this stage, swing voters are those ambivalent to the personalities and have not been swayed one way or another by them, it will be policy not personalities that will sway them and very likely possibly determine the outcome of the election.
Not directed at you whatsoever. I have read only bits of the thread :thumbsup:

I put carlzeiss on ignore years ago for repeatedly posting links to brown people committing crimes, and related tropes, and then not engaging with any subsequent discussion, even claiming lack of knowledge about issues he felt were 'interesting' and denying any agenda. Tedious and pointless. Something I can easily disregard. So I do.
 


US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,665
Cleveland, OH

While I don't disagree with his general thesis, the "Southern Strategy" of appealing to racist whites in the deep south didn't happen after Nixon. It was, in fact, the exact strategy that Nixon used to win the White House in the first place. It was his election that convinced the rest of the party that they were on to a winner.
 


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