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[Politics] Taiwan vs China worries



Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
Taking off my tin-foil hat to go for the more mainstream take here, just telling in case you think I'm writing on behalf of David Icke or Bersant Celina...

For the second day in a row, there's been Chinese intrusions in Taiwan's air space. This is extremely worrying as it might not be empy long-term threats but rather a conflict that could come in the short to mid term.

For those unaware of the old history, in short Taiwan is officially known as the Republic of China whereas China is the People's Republic of China. When the ROC lost the civil war in the late 40s, they escaped to Taiwan while still claiming they were the righteous "owners" of China, while mainland China said "no, we own you".

To get some protection and money and shit, Taiwan became friends with the US. China said "bah". But then Taiwan also became the inofficial friend of Chinese business, taking all their new fancy tech and building large and efficient factories in China while a lot of Chinese people travelled to Taiwan to buy fancy stuff. Everyone was pretty happy with the status quo, especially since China-US relations also improved.

This turned the leading party (and until the 80s only party) Kuomintang to a China-friendly party. But the population of Taiwan enjoyed their superior freedom and quality of life. They no longer considered themselves exile Chinese, but instead Taiwanese. And eventually voted for another party to rule the country, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

This annoyed the Chinese. In the election in Taiwan last year, the candidates of pro-China Kuomintang said "vote for us or get destroyed". The people elected DPP.

With Chinese power growing, they no longer want to be friends with anyone really. They want power. There's several leaked memos from the Communist Party saying "we're waiting. Waiting for capitalism to collapse before we take over the world." The possibility of being friends with both China and the US at the same time has disappeared.

With Trump in office, the Chinese government could sit down and roll their thumbs, waiting/hoping for the Taiwanese people to recent that ******* and becoming more China-friendly. With Biden in office this is most likely not happening, and the possibility of Taiwan turning itself Chinese is next to none. If China wants Taiwan to be China, they need to take it by force. And this is why only a few days after the Biden inauguration, China has entered a new phase in their "relations" with Taiwan.

What would a Taiwan vs China war mean? It would most likely mean the US moving in to protect Taiwan. Their non-interfering days are Trump days and they are likely to resume their questionable role as world police. A China vs Taiwan war would probably mean nothing for most of us. A China vs US war is a different thing and likely to escalate into something very big and dirty.

Interesting times.
 




AmexRuislip

Retired Spy 🕵️‍♂️
Feb 2, 2014
34,613
Ruislip
Part of the arguments, is the constant sabre rattling that China does in trying to claim rights to islands or atols, that could give them an advantage in the area.
Taiwan claims that they belong to them, and as per usual the US are sticking their noses in.

There probably won't be a war between China or the US, as each doesn't want to remembered for using conventional or nuclear weapons.
 




smeariestbat

New member
May 5, 2012
1,731
If they didnt do anything when putin went into crimea, they wont do anything when china walks into chinese taipai
 


bluenitsuj

Listen to me!!!
Feb 26, 2011
4,702
Willingdon
Whatever happens the murdering chinese communist government deserve getting blown away, but we know they are untouchable. The world stands by doing nothing about the genocide of the uyghurs.
 




smeariestbat

New member
May 5, 2012
1,731
China has become way too powerful, a bit like the US has been for more than a century. A bit like the British Empire was centuries before that.

It wouldn't escalate to war, nobody would be that stupid. The worst the US and its allies could do would be economic sanctions, but even that wouldn't deter China anymore. It would hurt the West more than it would hurt them.

It'll be the case that China will continue to slowly claim new lands and seas, and retain the lands it believes belongs to it already. Nobody will be able to stop it. The only thing that can stop a powerhouse like China is a revolution from within, and that's not going to happen in our lifetimes.

I didnt like this comment because i like it, but because i completely agree with you ��
 


Gabbafella

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
4,897
Taiwan is officially known as the Republic of China whereas China is the People's Republic of China

Judean Peoples' Front? **** off, we're the Peoples' Front of Judea!
 


Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
Whatever happens the murdering chinese communist government deserve getting blown away, but we know they are untouchable. The world stands by doing nothing about the genocide of the uyghurs.

And thats just a very small (but horrible) part of the wider problem. In exiled Chinese ITK Yuan Hongbins excellent "The Taiwan Crisis", he quotes former Chinese leader Hu Jintaos secret (but leaked) report in 2008:

“Right now, a financial crisis has hit the capitalist world. This crisis will continue to worsen. It will shatter the philosophical foundations and spiritual values of capitalism…. This crisis is proof that the Marxist theory of capitalism inescapably leading to cyclic economic crisis is correct; that Lenin’s theory of dictatorship being the fall of capitalism is correct; that Marx and Engels’ theory of socialism inevitably conquering capitalism is correct… … After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, people thought that socialism had collapsed. This is the result of Euro-centrism. They forgot that the Communist Party of China still exists. As long as our party is in power, socialism will not collapse.

Deng Xiaoping once told us that we must “lie in wait”. Following the 6.4 Incident in 1989, his strategy worked to pacify the hostile international climate. Now, after 19 years, we are past the 6.4 Incident. We have overcome the negative impacts from the dissolution of the Soviet Union. We are now entering a period of strategic development.

We must take a further step in opening up to the outside. We must use economic, cultural, and social means to expand and strengthen our influence on other countries worldwide. Historically, the west used battle ships and opium to colonize China. Now, the roles are reversed. We will seize the opportunity that capitalism’s economic crisis has presented us with. Through the Opening- Up Policy, we will gradually make them Socialist China’s economic and cultural colonies. In the past, when they colonized us, we were invaded by imperialism. But now, when we colonize them, communism will prevail over the rotting capitalist world. Together the CCP must conquer capitalism through socialism. Ultimately, we must fulfil our mighty mission to free all of mankind through communism. In the coming future, this mission will be the core of the CCP political strategy.

Solving the Taiwan Problem is the first step we must take to fulfill our mission. In the past, the Taiwan Problem was a conflict between the CCP and the opposition party Koumingtang (KMT). Now, it is a conflict between Socialism and flawed Capitalism. If we do not end the Taiwan Problem, opposition activities attempting to topple our socialist government within and outside of the country will run rampant. We will not be able to set aside the trouble back home and fulfill our mission around the world. Hence, quickly terminating the Taiwan Problem is essential to keeping Socialism in China alive, to keeping the party in power…”
 




Beach Hut

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 5, 2003
72,292
Living In a Box
Can't believe you have not emailed Barber with your concerns
 


Guinness Boy

Tofu eating wokerati
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Jul 23, 2003
37,205
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
Taking off my tin-foil hat to go for the more mainstream take here, just telling in case you think I'm writing on behalf of David Icke or Bersant Celina...

For the second day in a row, there's been Chinese intrusions in Taiwan's air space. This is extremely worrying as it might not be empy long-term threats but rather a conflict that could come in the short to mid term.

For those unaware of the old history, in short Taiwan is officially known as the Republic of China whereas China is the People's Republic of China. When the ROC lost the civil war in the late 40s, they escaped to Taiwan while still claiming they were the righteous "owners" of China, while mainland China said "no, we own you".

To get some protection and money and shit, Taiwan became friends with the US. China said "bah". But then Taiwan also became the inofficial friend of Chinese business, taking all their new fancy tech and building large and efficient factories in China while a lot of Chinese people travelled to Taiwan to buy fancy stuff. Everyone was pretty happy with the status quo, especially since China-US relations also improved.

This turned the leading party (and until the 80s only party) Kuomintang to a China-friendly party. But the population of Taiwan enjoyed their superior freedom and quality of life. They no longer considered themselves exile Chinese, but instead Taiwanese. And eventually voted for another party to rule the country, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

This annoyed the Chinese. In the election in Taiwan last year, the candidates of pro-China Kuomintang said "vote for us or get destroyed". The people elected DPP.

With Chinese power growing, they no longer want to be friends with anyone really. They want power. There's several leaked memos from the Communist Party saying "we're waiting. Waiting for capitalism to collapse before we take over the world." The possibility of being friends with both China and the US at the same time has disappeared.

With Trump in office, the Chinese government could sit down and roll their thumbs, waiting/hoping for the Taiwanese people to recent that ******* and becoming more China-friendly. With Biden in office this is most likely not happening, and the possibility of Taiwan turning itself Chinese is next to none. If China wants Taiwan to be China, they need to take it by force. And this is why only a few days after the Biden inauguration, China has entered a new phase in their "relations" with Taiwan.

What would a Taiwan vs China war mean? It would most likely mean the US moving in to protect Taiwan. Their non-interfering days are Trump days and they are likely to resume their questionable role as world police. A China vs Taiwan war would probably mean nothing for most of us. A China vs US war is a different thing and likely to escalate into something very big and dirty.

Interesting times.

I lived in Taipei for three years in the mid 2000s. Great place full of lovely people.

Your history lesson is slightly out. It's not the ROC who went to Taiwan but the KMT, the Chinese Nationalists, led by Chaing Kai-Shek. They were only able to because the Japanese who had been running it were forced out at the end of World War II. Chaing ran it using martial law for years. He was supported by the US only because he opposed Communism. The island is split between those who consider themselves Taiwanese and those who consider themselves Chinese and there is a significant minority population of Taiwan aborigines who can trace their heritage back to those who actually lived there back in the day. Think of it as Brexit with chopsticks.

This sort of shit happens very regularly. There's nearly as much sabre rattling as in Korea. But both sides have a huge armoury pointing at the other. The mainlanders are probably pissed off with something the DPP said or did. However, don't think of Taiwan as powerless minnows. When I was there an American arms dealer lived in the flat above me with his local mistress and we regularly attended parties with a guy who was undoubtedly a CIA agent.

The US always did support the island in reality, whatever their diplomatic relations and country alignment say in public. Though I'm very much in the DPP camp and despise the mainland government it will take a lot more than airspace incursions to kick anything off.
 


Doonhamer7

Well-known member
Jun 17, 2016
1,448
There will be sabre rattling and no more - China and the USA are so economically tied to each other that it would lead to mutually assured destruction. China could withdraw its purchase of US debt, thus collapsing USA economy, thus USA could buy no Chinese’s products destroying Chinese economy and so on.

This isn’t like with Russia as the Russian economy is mainly exporting of raw products (oil, gas, minerals) and has its own debt issues, so US less reliant to economic issues (although at one point I think the USA could ‘starve’ Russia by banning export of wheat. Part of the reason for the collapse of the USSR was the collapse of the price of oil, it couldn’t economically support its vassal states.
 




hoof hearted

New member
Sep 14, 2019
591
I don't see China doing taking Taiwan by force, at least not any time soon. It's just sabre rattling and testing Taiwan's air defence reactions (bit like Russia does in our air space).

China knows that taking Taiwan by force would result in the US getting involved militarily, because of the pact they have with Taiwan. Neither US or China want a war, which would lead to a world war. The danger in the future is when China has built up it's navy, but that's still some way off.

China's biggest enemy right now is itself. It has a massive population that it needs to control in an authoritarian manner and to make sure they don't go hungry (which will lead to more discontent). China's econommy also relies to export - the west has allowed China's economy to boom because of the desire for cheaper goods (like on Amazon, it's a race to the bottom with cheaper and cheaper prices).
 


Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
I lived in Taipei for three years in the mid 2000s. Great place full of lovely people.

Your history lesson is slightly out. It's not the ROC who went to Taiwan but the KMT, the Chinese Nationalists, led by Chaing Kai-Shek. They were only able to because the Japanese who had been running it were forced out at the end of World War II. Chaing ran it using martial law for years. He was supported by the US only because he opposed Communism. The island is split between those who consider themselves Taiwanese and those who consider themselves Chinese and there is a significant minority population of Taiwan aborigines who can trace their heritage back to those who actually lived there back in the day. Think of it as Brexit with chopsticks.

This sort of shit happens very regularly. There's nearly as much sabre rattling as in Korea. But both sides have a huge armoury pointing at the other. The mainlanders are probably pissed off with something the DPP said or did. However, don't think of Taiwan as powerless minnows. When I was there an American arms dealer lived in the flat above me with his local mistress and we regularly attended parties with a guy who was undoubtedly a CIA agent.

The US always did support the island in reality, whatever their diplomatic relations and country alignment say in public. Though I'm very much in the DPP camp and despise the mainland government it will take a lot more than airspace incursions to kick anything off.

Yes the US always supported Taiwan, not arguing with that. But what has changed in recent years is that Taiwan sooner or later needs to pick a side. One foot in the US and one foot in China is not going to work anymore, the reason being that China no longer fears the US in the same way as they used to, giving them less reason to accept the status quo.

It's been forever said that "some day maybe it will move from words to action", just like with Hong Kong. And just like in the case of Hong Kong, its possible that this "some day" is not as far away as some would believe. Its quite different from the Korea situation where SK cant do shit because they cant fight against China.
 


Guinness Boy

Tofu eating wokerati
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Jul 23, 2003
37,205
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
Yes the US always supported Taiwan, not arguing with that. But what has changed in recent years is that Taiwan sooner or later needs to pick a side. One foot in the US and one foot in China is not going to work anymore, the reason being that China no longer fears the US in the same way as they used to, giving them less reason to accept the status quo.

It's been forever said that "some day maybe it will move from words to action", just like with Hong Kong. And just like in the case of Hong Kong, its possible that this "some day" is not as far away as some would believe. Its quite different from the Korea situation where SK cant do shit because they cant fight against China.

The problem is that with the KMT now favouring the mainland and the DPP the US that choice may never come. The Brexit analogy wasn't throwaway.
 




Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
The problem is that with the KMT now favouring the mainland and the DPP the US that choice may never come. The Brexit analogy wasn't throwaway.

Both are pretty ambigious. It's not like KMT are fronting the US as the enemies of the world and the DPP leadership seems to be very careful about what they say about China. Might be right that they dont have a choice going forward, as China might not give a **** what the Taiwanese wants and just grab it anyway.

Not sure about the Brexit analogy, situation looks very different to me.
 


Guinness Boy

Tofu eating wokerati
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Jul 23, 2003
37,205
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
Not sure about the Brexit analogy, situation looks very different to me.

As in you are either one or the other and the two sides do not get on, rather than the outcome. There was an election campaign on when I first arrived in Taipei and we were actually warned to stay away from rallies by the company I was working for. There have also been some cracking fist fights in parliament and, once, a food fight that involved pig guts.

 


Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
As in you are either one or the other and the two sides do not get on, rather than the outcome. There was an election campaign on when I first arrived in Taipei and we were actually warned to stay away from rallies by the company I was working for. There have also been some cracking fist fights in parliament and, once, a food fight that involved pig guts.



Ok in that sense I get what you mean.
 


Starting wars is not how China operates at all. Yes there will be lots of sabre rattling by Beijing and incursions, economic attacks etc but China’s rulers play the very long game. They’ll be more focused on absorbing HK for the next 50 years and silencing opposition there
 




One of the great historical ironies that the heirs of Chiang Kai-shek are cuddling up to the China Communist Party. But as ever, money talks among all elites and China has lots of it these days
 


Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
Starting wars is not how China operates at all. Yes there will be lots of sabre rattling by Beijing and incursions, economic attacks etc but China’s rulers play the very long game. They’ll be more focused on absorbing HK for the next 50 years and silencing opposition there

While its true they rarely start wars its difficult to tell if its because they've always had someone to be afraid of (like your dirty little empire or in recent times the US empire), its difficult to know what they will do in the future. That they will be invading some far away country probably remains unlikely but taking Taiwan by force is not out the question.

Pretty sure they wont spend 50 years solely focusing on HK, its a small region and not nearly as important to them as it used to be.
 


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