[News] Sturgeon et al lose indyref2 court case

[sparkie]

So you keep running these votes whenever either party wants them? Just in case there’s a swing one way or the other? Shall we say monthly, or is that a bit too long to wait?

No.

Whenever, and only if, a mandate is given at a General Election.

 

[BadFish]

So you keep running these votes whenever either party wants them? Just in case there’s a swing one way or the other? Shall we say monthly, or is that a bit too long to wait?

This seems like an extreme interpretation of what people are saying here.

Surely it is logical that if there is substantial evidence to suggest that there is a change in opinion ten it is reasonable to have another referendum.

In this case, looking at the opinion polls there doesn't seem to be a huge shift in opinion so I don't think there should be another referendum.

But the 'just keep having them until we get the right result' argument is a poor one in terms of this discussion. No one on here is suggesting this. Total strawman argument.

 

[Triggaaar]

But Scotland is a country, whereas Cornwall isn't.

If Scotland was a country (it isn't) it wouldn't need permission from the UK (country) government.

 

[beorhthelm]

But the 'just keep having them until we get the right result' argument is a poor one in terms of this discussion. No one on here is suggesting this. Total strawman argument.

it is the policy of SNP, despite never managing a majority in Scotland, they insist on another referendum.

 

[mikeyjh]

This seems like an extreme interpretation of what people are saying here.

Surely it is logical that if there is substantial evidence to suggest that there is a change in opinion ten it is reasonable to have another referendum.

In this case, looking at the opinion polls there doesn't seem to be a huge shift in opinion so I don't think there should be another referendum.

But the 'just keep having them until we get the right result' argument is a poor one in terms of this discussion. No one on here is suggesting this. Total strawman argument.

I don't disagree - The thing is though, there isn't evidence that there is a significant change in opinion. More importantly, to the question "should there be a referendum in 2023?", there is a very clear majority that say no. 2014 was sold as a "once in a generation" opportunity - Again, a clear majority said no, nothing has changed since.

I'm not arguing with you BTW, just taking the point a little further.

 

[PeterT]

This seems like an extreme interpretation of what people are saying here.

Surely it is logical that if there is substantial evidence to suggest that there is a change in opinion ten it is reasonable to have another referendum.

In this case, looking at the opinion polls there doesn't seem to be a huge shift in opinion so I don't think there should be another referendum.

But the 'just keep having them until we get the right result' argument is a poor one in terms of this discussion. No one on here is suggesting this. Total strawman argument.

Not at all. You say ‘if there is substantial evidence’ but that is only the start of the argument. The SNP argue that even a 50.1% vote for them in the general election is enough to demonstrate that there is a mandate whereas I and others have questioned how that can be so. Newsnight last night covered it well. So the strawman argument is saying a comment like that and either not defining it or leaving the 2 sides to argue it, which is exactly where we are at the moment at the source of the current debate.

You have then referred to opinion polls, the same polls that the SNP are quoting selectively to say that such substantial evidence does exist!

And if you think the SNP would just accept another argument on this then you are very naive. There raison d’être is independence. They will use every trick they can to get it. They will take every opportunity and every possible vote or referendum of (at the moment) legal route to find a way to get it. They will do that until they get the right result for them. I personally doubt that once they get what they want they would be so forthcoming to allow a vote in the other direction.

Where I do agree is that if there was a clear and consistent long term shift in Scotland to clearly demonstrate that independence was overwhelmingly desired in Scotland, and for that I would be looking at something like 2/3 of the electorate, then in that scenario it would be wrong to stand in their way. But an opinion poll? 50.1% of a general election of just those who voted (plenty might abstain) at which despite their wish this would not be the only topic being voted for?

 

[Machiavelli]

Yes, you're confused. Different parts of a country cannot declare independence, even if they ask the people in that region. For example, Cornwall also don't have the right to have a referendum on independence.

I'm not remotely confused. You're wrong: you stated that the SNP/Scottish independence movement is seeking to unilaterally declare independence; I stated that they wanted a referendum on the issue of independence.
I could even speculate as to what is motivating your error, but I'll just leave it up to others to work out what's going on.

 

[Machiavelli]

A tiny economy, gained by being a tax haven for cheats such as Dell. Which the EU Commission was furious about. That plus colossal grants created the Celtic Tiger.

A phrase not heard for a very long time now, because it effectively collapsed in 2008 with Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy. It was built on faux economics.

Last month Irish homeowners came out of negative for the first time in 14 years. Their property boom was construed by criminally corrupt bankers working with now disgraced developers.

Agree with all that, but it doesn't detract from HT's point, which is the Irish economy is still doing remarkably well, when both outside the UK and inside the EU.

 

[Machiavelli]

Looking at the polls on the subject I revise my opinion. There doesn't seem to be a huge amount of public clamouring for a breakaway.

Opinion polling on Scottish independence - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Maybe if the polls hit significantly over 50% then a referendum would be appropriate.

I think you've been doing well on this thread, until this post. I'm less concerned with opinion polls, and more concerned with elections. The SNP's key ticket is independence, and they keep on getting returned to both Holyrood and Westminster. They've even formed a majority government with the (referendum-seeking) Scottish Greens.
As @Westdene Seagull says, how many times do the SNP (or a referendum-supporting majority) need to be returned until a referendum is granted?

 

[PeterT]

No.

Whenever, and only if, a mandate is given at a General Election.

Newsnight covered it well last night. The General Election, despite what the SNP want, does not give any mandate on a single issue such as independence.

 

[Machiavelli]

I thought the same thing. A devout Socialist, desperate for jobs and tax revenues, allowing tax avoiding multinationals in from the US.

[For those unaware, Ireland, Lux and Netherlands all have tiny corporation rates for non-EU multinationals basing their HQ there. Allowing the likes of Dell, Starbucks, Amazon, Apple and Twitter to pay bugger all tax on their entire EU and UK gross or net income].

Worth adding that this was all driven by Luxembourg around the turn of the millennium, whose PM/Pres/Grand Fromage at that time was one J-C Juncker.

 

[PeterT]

I think you've been doing well on this thread, until this post. I'm less concerned with opinion polls, and more concerned with elections. The SNP's key ticket is independence, and they keep on getting returned to both Holyrood and Westminster. They've even formed a majority government with the (referendum-seeking) Scottish Greens.
As @Westdene Seagull says, how many times do the SNP (or a referendum-supporting majority) need to be returned until a referendum is granted?

Well a very relevant point is that in the last general election the SNP had 45% of the vote, with a turnout of 68%, so barely more than 30% of the Scottish electorate actually voted for them!

 

[Weststander]

Agree with all that, but it doesn't detract from HT's point, which is the Irish economy is still doing remarkably well, when both outside the UK and inside the EU.

I’ve followed the Irish economy story, for many years before this thread. The heyday was built on a property boom which later collapsed further than anyone else’s and allowing vast US corporations to shelter their European or global profits. It was not an economic miracle, a scaled down Germany of wonderfully innovative manufacturers producing quality goods for export. Now its reliant on the tax avoiders.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Newsnight covered it well last night. The General Election, despite what the SNP want, does not give any mandate on a single issue such as independence.

What if they ran at the election with just the one policy?

 

[Live by the sea]

Has Scotland got the capability to effectively look after itself if it became independent?

I’m not sure it could .

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

If Scotland was a county (it isn't) it wouldn't need permission from the UK (country) government.

Not following you there. I didn't say Scotland is a county (not even as a typo as far as I can see).

Not sure how rebranding a country as a county gives it powers it didn't have.

 

[BadFish]

I think you've been doing well on this thread, until this post. I'm less concerned with opinion polls, and more concerned with elections. The SNP's key ticket is independence, and they keep on getting returned to both Holyrood and Westminster. They've even formed a majority government with the (referendum-seeking) Scottish Greens.
As @Westdene Seagull says, how many times do the SNP (or a referendum-supporting majority) need to be returned until a referendum is granted?

The thing is the referendum is more based on the % of Scots that want independence. The voting figures that I am looking at only show the SNP getting to 50% once. Given that this also is the % of the voting turn out doesn't really prove that over 50% of the country are keen on independence. To be fair their popularity has grown since 2014 but is that enough to force a new referendum?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1057795/scottish-election-results/

To defend my use of opinion polls, their results tell a similar story to the voting numbers.

I am just not convinced that either really screams that things have changed that much.

Anyway, I guess that is just a difference of opinion on the measure. My main point on this thread is the ridiculousness of the "they just want to keep doing referendums until they get the right answer".

 

[PeterT]

What if they ran at the election with just the one policy?

I know that’s what the SNP are saying, but actually I was a bit surprised about how quickly that argument was dismissed on Newsnight with essentially saying that you can’t ever run a general election on a single policy because there are so many other factors involved that can’t be ignored. I’d have to watch it again to get the facts but it didn’t even seem up for debate from what I recall them saying.

 

[KZNSeagull]

I know that’s what the SNP are saying, but actually I was a bit surprised about how quickly that argument was dismissed on Newsnight with essentially saying that you can’t ever run a general election on a single policy because there are so many other factors involved that can’t be ignored. I’d have to watch it again to get the facts but it didn’t even seem up for debate from what I recall them saying.

Fair enough, thanks. It would seem like an act of desperation to even try that as they would risk getting wiped out politically.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I’ve followed the Irish economy story, for many years before this thread. The heyday was built on a property boom which later collapsed further than anyone else’s and allowing vast US corporations to shelter their European or global profits. It was not an economic miracle, a scaled down Germany of wonderfully innovative manufacturers producing quality goods for export. Now its reliant on the tax avoiders.

All of that may be true, but since 1973 Ireland has gone from being a backwater with an economy based almost entirely on agricultural to having enhanced global standing, a diverse economy and a much higher standard of living. The Irish were once - literally - a joke nation, but now they are a proper outfit.

I think what will happen in time is Irish reunification will happen before anything in Scotland. Westminster will not be able to fob Northern Ireland off like they can Scotland because The Good Friday Agreement makes provision for the will of the Northern Irish people in a future border poll, while the Northern Ireland Executive has been a car crash. Similarly, there is now a Catholic majority in the North and a majority of young voters when polled favour a United Ireland. The direction of travel is only one way.

I can see Irish unification within the next 20 years and once this happens the call for Scottish independence will automatically have fresh impetus and legitimacy.