[Misc] Strep A & Scarlet Fever

[Triggaaar]

Choosing 2018 is very selective. Maybe show a plot of cases against all years to get a perspective?

It is selective, but it does say 'the last peak', so it's not misleading. It will be more concerning if the deaths have suddenly spiked in a shorter time than 2018, suggesting there might be a lot more to come, but if the bottom line is that we're getting no more than 4 years ago then it seems a bit presumptuous to say it's down to covid.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

It is selective, but it does say 'the last peak', so it's not misleading. It will be more concerning if the deaths have suddenly spiked in a shorter time than 2018, suggesting there might be a lot more to come, but if the bottom line is that we're getting no more than 4 years ago then it seems a bit presumptuous to say it's down to covid.

Being pedantic it is five years ago as it is comparing the winter of 2017/18.

I was prone to strep throats. and have had infections from strep infections including cellulitis. I'm fortunate in that the antibiotics worked for me.

I agree the press is making a big thing of it, which is panicking some parents.

 

[Zeberdi]

Choosing 2018 is very selective. Maybe show a plot of cases against all years to get a perspective?

I posted a link covering the trend before and after 2018, in the OP of this thread already if that helps. In case you don like to click on links:

 

[Weststander]

I posted a link covering the trend before and after 2018, in the OP of this thread already if that helps. In case you don like to click on links:

View attachment 154547

Any idea of the numbers of children who lost their lives to Strep A in those periods?

 

[Zeberdi]

Any idea of the numbers of children who lost their lives to Strep A in those periods?

It’s in the same link but I don’t have time to re-iterate it - they do lump historical adult and child cases together (and these are all cases of fatal invasive Strep A incidents across the age board eg see here https://www.esht.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/0447.pdf)

So you’d have to unpick it a bit for childhood figures or find another source I think.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Without checking, I believe the Swedes had a worst covid record than their Scandinavian neighbours who did have lockdowns. Not exactly clear how you can also compare a country like Sweden with a low population density with that of the UK with a high density?

Edit:
Sweden 21K deaths
Finland: 7.5k
Norway 4.5k
Denmark 7.5k

How appealing is Sweden's tactics now?

Sweden has twice the population of the other countries. Death rate per thousand would be more informative.

Any idea of the numbers of children who lost their lives to Strep A in those periods?

In the year ended September 2018, it was 27. But that was following "normal" years of low infection, not isolation years. So if this year we get a similar strenth of outbreak as in 2017-18, we might perhaps expect to have a higher death rate, because the numbers of children getting this for the first time must be higher than normal.