[Albion] Stoke, Southampton, Swansea & Huddersfield. Remaining Fixtures.

[Simster]

Is it right though. They are suggesting Leicester could still go down. Given teams are playing each other below them I'm not sure that is correct. It may just be based on the points but isn't taking into account the games between the teams below them?

My assumption was that these were summaries based on the probability models of all remaining individual fixtures. If I'm right, then obviously that would include all matches. And you can see that the chance of Leicester finishing lower than 13th is so small that the graph line is barely visible for their 14th-18th places.

 

[nigeyb]

My analysis. Yes I'm a bit worried....

Close or way off the mark?

Stoke (28 now)
Burnley H Draw (29)
Liverpool A Lose (29)
Palace H Draw (30)
Swansea A Draw (31)

Southampton (28 now)
Leicester A Draw (29)
Bournemouth H Win (32)
Everton A Lose (32)
Swansea A Draw (33)
Man City H Draw (34)

Swansea (33 now)
Man City A Lose (33)
Chelsea H Draw (34)
Bournemouth A Draw (35)
Southampton H Draw (36)
Stoke H Draw (37)

Huddersfield (35 now)
Everton H Win (38)
Man City A Lose (38)
Chelsea A Lose (38)
Arsenal H Draw (39)

Us (35 now)
Spurs H Lose (35)
Burnley A Draw (36)
Man Utd H Draw (37)
Man City A Lose (37)
Liverpool A Lose (37)

If we get two more draws then it's happy days

 

[Triggaaar]

Marginally easier fixtures.

It's not that marginal. We both have Man U at home.
They're away to Leicester, we're away to Burnley - not much in that.
They play Man City at home, we play them away - that's easier, particularly with Man City on holiday. City won't want to take the piss in front of their fans for the last game of the season, which is against us.
They're away to Arsenal, while we're away to Liverpool. That's easier, firstly because Arsenal aren't as good as Liverpool, and secondly because their away trip is just a few miles away, so they don't need to go and stay in a hotel.
And obviously at home against Everton is easier than at home against Spurs.

I can see no more points for West Ham this season unless they fluke one v Everton.

Then I guess you can see no more points for us this season. And even if they need a point on the last day against Everton, they should be able to do it, Everton haven't been good away from home.

 

[Triggaaar]

Funny how so many of us expect nothing from our last five games but can see the teams below us garnering 6 or 7 points.

Well it's not quite like that. There's a fair chance we'll get nothing from the remaining games, given how tough they are, but I wouldn't say I expect nothing. Only Southampton need to get 7 points to put us in trouble, and while they probably won't get them, it's not that unlikely either.

Every fan of other teams in the Premier League that I speak to has said “you’re safe” for weeks now. Why doesn’t it feel like it to me?

It doesn't feel like it to you, because you've seen the fixtures and know we're not safe, while the other fans wrongly assume it's all done and dusted.

 

[1892]

Brighton are safe. Southampton and Stoke are absolutely dreadful and Huddersfield will pick up 1 more point max. There won't be an interesting finish to the season after all.

 

[Bold Seagull]

It's not that marginal. We both have Man U at home.
They're away to Leicester, we're away to Burnley - not much in that.
They play Man City at home, we play them away - that's easier, particularly with Man City on holiday. City won't want to take the piss in front of their fans for the last game of the season, which is against us.
They're away to Arsenal, while we're away to Liverpool. That's easier, firstly because Arsenal aren't as good as Liverpool, and secondly because their away trip is just a few miles away, so they don't need to go and stay in a hotel.
And obviously at home against Everton is easier than at home against Spurs.

Then I guess you can see no more points for us this season. And even if they need a point on the last day against Everton, they should be able to do it, Everton haven't been good away from home.

You just cannot call it at this stage of the season. One team expected to be on the beach already pull out a performance of the season. I seem to remember an already relegated West Ham denying Ferguson a title against their all concurring side as Blackburn lost at Liverpool. Relegated QPR seconds away from denying Man City the title. So much pressure, so many different reasons for turning up or not turning up. You end up with results like West Brom beating ManUtd at Old Trafford.

We can all pour over the fixtures all we want, this fixture is easier than that, but football will always throw a spanner in the works.

Hopefully we are retaining enough belief that we will spring a surprise or two, I certainly believe that (and secretly would hedge a bet we already have enough).

 

[Randsta]

They're away to Arsenal, while we're away to Liverpool. That's easier, firstly because Arsenal aren't as good as Liverpool, and secondly because their away trip is just a few miles away, so they don't need to go and stay in a hotel.
/QUOTE]

Liverpool with a possible champions league game and secured 4th spot took field a weakened team? but then on the flip side Arsenal nothing to play for in the league and possibly a Europa cup final...... both easy

 

[Triggaaar]

Swansea look fragile now, their next 3:
ManCity A
Chelsea H
Bournemouth A

They might well go into their last 2 still on 33 points.

That would be nice. Hopefully City have stopped drinking and want to put on a show for their fans on Sunday. Bournemouth haven't been playing too well though.

They have Southampton & Stoke at home for their last 2 games.

Even if they lose their next 3 games, they only need to win one of their last two to go above us, meaning Stoke or SCC could take 3 points off them.

Does leave you feeling any point for us could be vital.

Definitely.

Stoke : 7 points behind

Burnley H
Liverpool A
Palace H
Swansea A

If Palace and Swansea are safe when they play Stoke, it could be easy point for them. West Ham's equaliser last night was a big deal for us.

Southampton : 7 points behind

Leicester A
Bournemouth H
Everton A
Swansea A
Man City H

Lots of games that could either way.

It's not far fetched to think one of those two could get 7 or 8 points.

 

[Hotchilidog]

You just cannot call it at this stage of the season. One team expected to be on the beach already pull out a performance of the season. I seem to remember an already relegated West Ham denying Ferguson a title against their all concurring side as Blackburn lost at Liverpool. Relegated QPR seconds away from denying Man City the title. So much pressure, so many different reasons for turning up or not turning up. You end up with results like West Brom beating ManUtd at Old Trafford.

We can all pour over the fixtures all we want, this fixture is easier than that, but football will always throw a spanner in the works.

Hopefully we are retaining enough belief that we will spring a surprise or two, I certainly believe that (and secretly would hedge a bet we already have enough).

A relegated West Ham team also denied Manchester United with a 1-0 win which helped pave the way for Leeds to win the title. Strange things happen at this time year, which is why us winning one or more of these games cannot yet be discounted.

 

[Bakero]

You just cannot call it at this stage of the season. One team expected to be on the beach already pull out a performance of the season. I seem to remember an already relegated West Ham denying Ferguson a title against their all concurring side as Blackburn lost at Liverpool. Relegated QPR seconds away from denying Man City the title. So much pressure, so many different reasons for turning up or not turning up. You end up with results like West Brom beating ManUtd at Old Trafford.

We can all pour over the fixtures all we want, this fixture is easier than that, but football will always throw a spanner in the works.

Hopefully we are retaining enough belief that we will spring a surprise or two, I certainly believe that (and secretly would hedge a bet we already have enough).

What are you going to pour over them?

 

[Triggaaar]

Liverpool with a possible champions league game and secured 4th spot took field a weakened team?

Against Stoke, yes (they play Roma both a few days before and after Stoke), but against us they have a 10 day break before the final (if they're in it). No way they'd rest players then, they need to be match fit. Of course theirs the possibility that their players aren't all up for it, and don't want to get injured ahead of the final (if they're in it) - that could help.

but then on the flip side Arsenal nothing to play for in the league and possibly a Europa cup final...... both easy

They're away to Arsenal just 4 days before Athletico play Arsenal, that could help them.

 

[Triggaaar]

It winds me up more than it should.

There is no reason whatsoever to expect that other teams will do any better in 'tough' fixtures than we will.

But other teams don't have the tough fixtures we do. We've got 5 games left - 4 against the top 4, and the other away to the team in 7th. That's probably the toughest run-in in the history of the Premier League.

 

[Clive Walker]

who are away to arsenal?

 

[Munkfish]

Against Stoke, yes (they play Roma both a few days before and after Stoke), but against us they have a 10 day break before the final (if they're in it). No way they'd rest players then, they need to be match fit. Of course theirs the possibility that their players aren't all up for it, and don't want to get injured ahead of the final (if they're in it) - that could help.

They're away to Arsenal just 4 days before Athletico play Arsenal, that could help them.

Arsenal will Only be concentrating on the Europa League now, not a chance they will risk their big guns against Stoke.

 

[Simster]

Marginally easier fixtures.

I can see no more points for West Ham this season unless they fluke one v Everton.

It's not that marginal.

More to the point, marginal is all that it needs to be, because given the two fixture lists, West Ham really ought to manage one point more than the Albion between now and the end of the season. That would almost certainly keep them up because it is extremely unlikely that both Stoke AND Southampton will manage 7 points more than West Ham.

 

[BensGrandad]

Arsenal will Only be concentrating on the Europa League now, not a chance they will risk their big guns against Stoke.

The fringe players will be looking to impress to make the final team.

 

[Bold Seagull]

What are you going to pour over them?

 

[Bold Seagull]

Arsenal will Only be concentrating on the Europa League now, not a chance they will risk their big guns against Stoke.

Wenger knows you cannot simply let your players switch off because it is difficult to switch back on just for particular games. There is also the humiliation of not only finishing out of the top 4, but finishing below Burnley in the table. I suspect Wenger and the club and the players will want maximum performance and confidence going into these Europa League ties, they won't progress if they start losing league games and fall out of the winning habit.

 

[Munkfish]

Wenger knows you cannot simply let your players switch off because it is difficult to switch back on just for particular games. There is also the humiliation of not only finishing out of the top 4, but finishing below Burnley in the table. I suspect Wenger and the club and the players will want maximum performance and confidence going into these Europa League ties, they won't progress if they start losing league games and fall out of the winning habit.

Didnt do United any harm last season.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

Brighton are safe. Southampton and Stoke are absolutely dreadful and Huddersfield will pick up 1 more point max. There won't be an interesting finish to the season after all.

I think most of us would like an uninteresting end to it. Many of us are long-suffering fans and know they never make it easy for us.