Stoke and Copeland Matchday By-election Thread

[ForestRowSeagull]

Peston highlighted earlier that it's an odd scenario where Labour holding two seats they've held for ages would actually be seen as a success. Stoke one is interesting, the recent UKIP furore can't have helped at all.

 

[GreersElbow]

what have the Blairite arm of the Labour party done for Copeland and Stoke other than parachute in people called Tristram.

Corbyn delivered utopia, shirely the people of Stoke will remember this!

 

[GreersElbow]

Peston highlighted earlier that it's an odd scenario where Labour holding two seats they've held for ages would actually be seen as a success. Stoke one is interesting, the recent UKIP furore can't have helped at all.

I think people will see UKIP as irrelevant from now on and would expect an exodus back to the Tories. UKIP simply can't reimage itself, it talks about the patriotic voice of the working class whilst having individuals on their executive committee with quasi-libertarian beliefs.

 

[crodonilson]

Any value in 2/1 for the Labour double?

 

[Albumen]

I think people will see UKIP as irrelevant from now on and would expect an exodus back to the Tories. UKIP simply can't reimage itself, it talks about the patriotic voice of the working class whilst having individuals on their executive committee with quasi-libertarian beliefs.

Which it never has been. They aimed for the gullible and struck gold/yellow/purple. Farage is an evil c>nt who's done very well to ruin the UK but he's an intelligent evil c>nt whereas new UKIP Nuttles is a wet prat, and less backed than Farage. I'm no fan of Labour but I hope they win both today.

 

[GreersElbow]

Any value in 2/1 for the Labour double?

Worth a punt, I can't see it being lost.

 

[spring hall convert]

I think people will see UKIP as irrelevant from now on and would expect an exodus back to the Tories.

*As long as Theresa May pursues a hard Brexit.*

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Conservative candidate for Copeland is local, works for the largest employer, ticks all the boxes, if there is going to be a gain for anyone, it's there.

UKIP might well be looking for a third leader fourth leader in six months, should come close but don't think they will do it and it is against a very weak Lab candidate.

Bet on a Copeland Conservative gain.

If Labour lose both its all over for Corbyn

 

[e77]

Any value in 2/1 for the Labour double?

I do think Labour are overpriced for Copeland so might be.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[beorhthelm]

So am I. Which one do you think they'll lose?

the obvious one is to lose Copeland. however this weather makes for an interesting if left-field option, they hold onto Copeland as bad weather is normal for Cumbria, and lose narrowly in Stoke to Tories as Labour and UKIP a like stay at home.

though as you say, really shouldn't even be discussing Labour losing either seat.

 

[Soulman]

Which it never has been. They aimed for the gullible and struck gold/yellow/purple. Farage is an evil c>nt who's done very well to ruin the UK but he's an intelligent evil c>nt whereas new UKIP Nuttles is a wet prat, and less backed than Farage. I'm no fan of Labour but I hope they win both today.

Nice language, yet you deride UKIP, priceless.

 

[Soulman]

Labour’s candidate ( for today's Stoke by- election) is Gareth Snell, who hates Brexit. How much does he hate it? A few months ago he said it was a ‘massive pile of shit’. Stoke had one of the highest Brexit votes in the country: 69.4 per cent of people cast their ballots against the EU. Snell thinks they voted for a ‘massive pile of s***’.

 

[e77]

Labour’s candidate ( for today's Stoke by- election) is Gareth Snell, who hates Brexit. How much does he hate it? A few months ago he said it was a ‘massive pile of shit’. Stoke had one of the highest Brexit votes in the country: 69.4 per cent of people cast their ballots against the EU. Snell thinks they voted for a ‘massive pile of s***’.

Absolutely, but he still might very well beat UKIP.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Bets / Predictions to laugh at later:

Copeland:

Conservative Gain, 44 % of the vote
Labour 23%
UKIP 16%

Stoke

UKIP Gain 27.5% of vote (reckon it will be won by under 500 votes)
Labour 27% (therefore Labour to lose both)
Cons 25%
Lib Dems 8.5%

Turnout to be lower in Stoke than Copeland (34.5% to 43%)

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

If Labour lose both Corbyn's position has got to be untenable.

 

[Soulman]

Absolutely, but he still might very well beat UKIP.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You could be correct, after seeing some of the predictions on here, who knows.

 

[Leekbrookgull]

Conservative candidate for Copeland is local, works for the largest employer, ticks all the boxes, if there is going to be a gain for anyone, it's there.

UKIP might well be looking for a third leader fourth leader in six months, should come close but don't think they will do it and it is against a very weak Lab candidate.

Bet on a Copeland Conservative gain.

If Labour lose both its all over for Corbyn

With you on Copeland and Nuttall well for me there is something "not right" whether you like Farage or not (?) there is something about the guy that some people will buy into. Actually think Labour will hold Stoke Central. As for Corbyn Momentum will keep him as leader.

 

[Leekbrookgull]

If Labour lose both Corbyn's position has got to be untenable.

Not with Momentum running the show.

 

[beorhthelm]

If Labour lose both Corbyn's position has got to be untenable.

pfft, this wouldnt change anything, his position is already untenable for a leader of the party of opposition, he cant command the confidence of his own parliamentary party.

 

[e77]

You could be correct, after seeing some of the predictions on here, who knows.

I suspect that it would have been a different result if Farage had run.

For it's sins Labour does have a large activist base that can push the party over the line in a close contest.