[Albion] Still think we’re safe?

[Uh_huh_him]

I think 80/1 is absolutely fantastic value, and that we have a >10% chance of going down.

This means however that I still think it is on balance a losing bet - throwing money away - so they'll have to offer me "out of this world" odds to bet.... and 80/1 isn't "out of this world".

Care to share your workings on this amazing piece of probability analysis?

 

[Uh_huh_him]

I was thinking about the weekend's results last night. We have been fortunate in how the results have played out amongst our rivals. We were always going to lose against City. None of us thought that all 4 of our rivals would win. Leicester and Palace have been shitehouse since lockdown and Newcastle are on the beach. Norwich were always gonna lose. The "4" have to play more difficult games. I still don't think we lose our remaining 3 games. Guess we will know in a fortnight (Hopefully next week).

tbh I didn't think it would take 6 rounds of games until we had a set which seriously damaged our chances.

 

[sparkie]

Care to share your workings on this amazing piece of probability analysis?

No, simply because there are no workings to share.

 

[Audax]

Still think we'll be safe. Possibility that by the time we play again we'll be looking at 1 point being enough to confirm it.

- Man City beat Muff
- Everton beat Villa

That would then mean that for us to go down:

- Both Watford and West Ham need to score at least 3 points more than us in remaining fixtures. Watford might even need 4 due to goal difference. Muff would need to win both their remaining games, and win them handily, with us losing both by decent margins as Muff will be looking at needing to overturn a 9 goal difference minimum.

It might become a worry if Muff and Villa both win and we lose.

 

[lost in london]

I don't think we'll go down. No-one who watched us against Liverpool could think that we wouldn't get a point out of our remaining games.

But I've also put a fiver on us going down at 80/1 just in case

 

[August West]

Am I the only one who fears that we'll accrue no more points and Watford, Bournemouth and Villa will be energised by this weekend's results and win matches they're not expected to?

 

[sparkie]

Am I the only one who fears that we'll accrue no more points and Watford, Bournemouth and Villa will be energised by this weekend's results and win matches they're not expected to?

Could happen.

4 teams have positive momentum, 1 doesn't.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Am I the only one who fears that we'll accrue no more points and Watford, Bournemouth and Villa will be energised by this weekend's results and win matches they're not expected to?

Maybe not alone, but in a small pool of pessimists.

 

[gripper stebson]

We'll be fine. But I did chuck 15 quid on at 250/1 last week.

£3750 will lessen the blow should it happen!

 

[studio150]

Yes and we're still going to overtake Palace.

This is based purely on the fact that I have been told to be more glass half full than half empty.

 

[Is it PotG?]

The bookies had us at 200/1 last week!

I still think we’ll be ok, but just shows how fast things can change in this league.

We're 60s or so. If I gave you a horse at 60/1, would you back it? Not a tip, just a suggestion, would you back it?

Bookies dream all this.

 

[Left Footer]

I felt we were safe until Leicester capitulated last night.
We should still be ok and it`s going to take a set of horrendous results for us to go down.

Didn`t we all expect Villa to beat Palace though??
For me it was their last chance and Palace are on their holibobs.

My concern is that Everton are also on their holibobs and Bournemouth and Villa both play them.

 

[DJ NOBO]

Those who think we have more than reasonable chance of going down, bookies are still offering 80/1, so you should absolutely pile on.

If I didn’t have a gambling addiction to manage I’d be all over that

 

[symyjym]

Those who think we have more than reasonable chance of going down, bookies are still offering 80/1, so you should absolutely pile on.

It's worth £100 just on the possibility, not on more than a reasonable chance

 

[stewart_weir]

No we don’t.

If we win one game the Bournemouth have to win all three including beating Man City away to go above us.

If we win one game Aston Villa can’t get more points than us. So they would have to win all three to overtake our goal difference which if we win one more game won’t happen.

So one win does it.

Im referring to be mathematically safe.

 

[Barrow Boy]

I never have thought we're safe, not until the points say we are, FFS it's The Albion, we are more than capable of screwing this up, I just pray we don't.

 

[Lifelong Supporter]

No way are we safe. We should be ok but that is far from definite. GP needs to get ONE winning performance from the team against opponents who have far less to play for and he has three games to do it.

TB will be watching and I would think will be at least a trifle disappointed with the showings against Man United and Man City which I expect went worldwide.

The team needs to deliver now and we should not be looking over our shoulder at other results and hoping.

 

[Mtoto]

No, simply because there are no workings to share.

If there are no workings, how can you quantify the chance of us going down as greater than 10pc, or compare it to the implied chance of 80-1 odds (ie. just over 1pc?).

 

[raymondo]

Our final three games are against teams above us. Normally, we'd take some points, but under stress, and with lowered confidence (?) we may not. I wasn't surprised we lost against the 3 big boys but I was surprised at the total hit on our goal difference: effectively we got minus 1 point from those three games.

 

[BLOCK F]

No way are we safe. We should be ok but that is far from definite. GP needs to get ONE winning performance from the team against opponents who have far less to play for and he has three games to do it.

TB will be watching and I would think will be at least a trifle disappointed with the showings against Man United and Man City which I expect went worldwide.

The team needs to deliver now and we should not be looking over our shoulder at other results and hoping.

I agree; I couldn't understand the gung-ho hubristic comments that some on here were spouting yesterday, including wanting Villa to beat Palace. That result and Bournemouth's win over Leicester has, no doubt , brought a more sober assessment to the fore.
With Watford, Hammers, Bournemouth and Villa all winning and us shipping goals, the situation has changed.Our three games are by no means easy and I just hope that our goal shy team can conjure up something and get us over the line.
I think we will get there, but this is the Albion we are talking about.