[Albion] Still think we’re safe?

[HP Seagull]

I am taking this one game at a time.

We have played four of the top five and the bottom club. Shame that our next game is against what has to be the form team outside of the three top teams we have recently played.

Saints ended up with more possession than United and matched them over the game garnering a deserved draw

Our chances of getting anything against Saints in form are slim imo but you never know.

I admire those that have their feet up and a smug “we are staying up” smile.

Fingers crossed that some of the results go our way in this round of matches, if we can’t do it ourselves I’ll happily accept some help from others

I am so confused that I don’t even know what result I want from Watford vs WHU yet

Hindsight might prove me wrong on this, but I think a Watford win would be best for us.

Let’s assume that West Ham lose their following match against Man United - that would in all likelihood leave West Ham and Villa below us going into the final round of games, and they play each other. Of course, you could argue a similar scenario if they draw, but that would leave them only a point behind us if we lose all of our games.

I don’t think there’s a perfect result for us (I.e someone has to get points) but looking at their remaining fixtures (Watford play City then away at Arsenal) I don’t think there’s a particularly bad one either, if that makes sense?

 

[Icy Gull]

Hindsight might prove me wrong on this, but I think a Watford win would be best for us.

Let’s assume that West Ham lose their following match against Man United - that would in all likelihood leave West Ham and Villa below us going into the final round of games, and they play each other. Of course, you could argue a similar scenario if they draw, but that would leave them only a point behind us if we lose all of our games.

I don’t think there’s a perfect result for us (I.e someone has to get points) but looking at their remaining fixtures (Watford play City then away at Arsenal) I don’t think there’s a particularly bad one either, if that makes sense?

Yes but there are still way too many permutations for my liking!

 

[HP Seagull]

Yes but there are still way too many permutations for my liking!

Let’s go and win at Southampton and make it all irrelevant!

The mood has been dampened by the way we lost to City, but if you look objectively at every result we’ve had since lockdown, I think we’ve achieved pretty much best case scenario.

There’s no reason we can’t continue that against three mid table teams, even if Southampton are playing well.

 

[Icy Gull]

Let’s go and win at Southampton and make it all irrelevant!

The mood has been dampened by the way we lost to City, but if you look objectively at every result we’ve had since lockdown, I think we’ve achieved pretty much best case scenario.

There’s no reason we can’t continue that against three mid table teams, even if Southampton are playing well.

We have done very well since the restart and plenty of positives in our performances too before City. No reason we can’t do well in the last few games. A Potter masterclass against Saints would be very welcome!

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Hindsight might prove me wrong on this, but I think a Watford win would be best for us.

Let’s assume that West Ham lose their following match against Man United - that would in all likelihood leave West Ham and Villa below us going into the final round of games, and they play each other. Of course, you could argue a similar scenario if they draw, but that would leave them only a point behind us if we lose all of our games.

I don’t think there’s a perfect result for us (I.e someone has to get points) but looking at their remaining fixtures (Watford play City then away at Arsenal) I don’t think there’s a particularly bad one either, if that makes sense?

Yeah I don't think there is a bad result for us in that game.
Personal preference is a West Ham win. They have the easiest run in and should finish above us anyway.
Leaves Watford with 2 difficult fixtures and points to make up on us.

 

[Eric Youngs Contact Lense]

I am delighted that saints had to put so much into last night.. they have been in good form, but I do think the 3rd game in 7 days has an impact on teams, so maybe the edge will come off a little .. looking for all lines of encouragement, even paper-thin ones!

 

[stewart_weir]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

Relegation probability:

Brighton <1%
West Ham 10%
Watford 20%
Bournemouth 85%
Aston Villa 85%
Norwich 100%

If we get no more points then all watford and ham need to do is win one which is probable. I dont see our probability at 1%.

 

[eastterracemike]

Yeah I don't think there is a bad result for us in that game.
Personal preference is a West Ham win. They have the easiest run in and should finish above us anyway.
Leaves Watford with 2 difficult fixtures and points to make up on us.

This. Watford have 3 very tricky fixtures and could easily drop into the bottom 3 with bmuff surviving . Unless Villa win vs Everton they're gone.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

If we get no more points then all watford and ham need to do is win one which is probable. I dont see our probability at 1%.

We wouldn't be relegated if both Watford and West Ham got 3 pts or more, so you need to add in the other odds for Bournemouth or Villa to get 6 & 7 points respectively.

0 points is a 1/27 scenario for us.
I did the rest of the maths in an earlier post can't be arsed to do it again.

The reason you can't see it, is because you think the 1 in 27 shot is odds on. It isn't.

If we lose to Saints and Villa BMuff win, the odds will come tumbling down and we will officially hit squeaky bum time.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

This. Watford have 3 very tricky fixtures and could easily drop into the bottom 3 with bmuff surviving . Unless Villa win vs Everton they're gone.

Yeah Watford have more right to look at the goals shipped by Leicester with horror. than we do.
The team that takes less of a tonking from City stand the best chance of staying up.

Plucky might get lucky with City resting players before the Semi.

 

[pasty]

If we get no more points then all watford and ham need to do is win one which is probable. I dont see our probability at 1%.

But similarly, if we get no more points, Muff still have to win 2 out of 3, and Villa win 2 and draw 1 for us to be relegated.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Saints ended up with more possession than United and matched them over the game garnering a deserved draw

Our chances of getting anything against Saints in form are slim imo but you never know.

I know it’s not often where we play a team that’s down to 10 men but Stains were very dirty last night. With a different referee, they could have seen at least two red cards and were very fortunate to end up with only three yellows. Like at home for us, it’s game over for them if they get a sending off.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

But similarly, if we get no more points, Muff still have to win 2 out of 3, Or Villa win 2 and draw 1 for us to be relegated.

corrected for you, But your point still stands

 

[Napper]

But similarly, if we get no more points, Muff still have to win 2 out of 3, and Villa win 2 and draw 1 for us to be relegated.

not both those scenarios , only 1 . Which I think will happen.

It's just down to whether we get more points for me.

Newcastle home looks the best chance. Chances are we could go into that game under a fair bit of pressure though.

Big week

 

[Uh_huh_him]

not both those scenarios , only 1 . Which I think will happen.

It's just down to whether we get more points for me.

Newcastle home looks the best chance. Chances are we could go into that game under a fair bit of pressure though.

Big week

I'm sure it is just a figure of speech, but the chances aren't that we will go into that one under pressure.

if you want to place a bet on BMuff/Villa/Southampton you can get on for at least 120/1. Even just going for Muff/Saints is about 32/1.

Anyone of those 3 results doesn't come in and we are under less pressure.

 

[sparkie]

A Man City win v Bournemouth tomorrow will certainly lift a lot of the pressure and give Bournemouth a maximum 37 point finish.

A nice draw or loss for Villa would then make the actual target for us 37 points. And we are nearly there.

 

[Is it PotG?]

A Man City win v Bournemouth tomorrow will certainly lift a lot of the pressure and give Bournemouth a maximum 37 point finish.

A nice draw or loss for Villa would then make the target for us 37 points. And we are nearly there.

You really think City can beat 'Muff? I'm not so sure.......

 

[sparkie]

You really think City can beat 'Muff. I'm not so sure.......

Smug Eddie the Smug reckoned they would win ALL their games, so maybe not.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

A Man City win v Bournemouth tomorrow will certainly lift a lot of the pressure and give Bournemouth a maximum 37 point finish.

A nice draw or loss for Villa would then make the actual target for us 37 points. And we are nearly there.

Think I may place a fiver on Bournemouth vs City (14/1) to make absolutely sure of it.

 

[lawros left foot]

I don’t think we will go down.



However, this being the Albion, I will admit to putting £2 on us to go, when the odds were 250/1


Bad fan.