Spain 2-2 Croatia FIX

[DTES]

Where teams finish level on points, only their head to head results count in determining their final positions. That would mean the only results that matter in determining the top 3 positions would be:

Spain 1-1 Italy
Croatia 1-1 Italy
Spain ?-? Croatia.

If it finished a draw, 2-2 or higher then Spain and Croatia would go through on goals scored
If it finished 1-1, then their respective results against Ireland would be considered, meaning Spain would go through and either Croatia or Italy
If it finished 0-0, Italy would be through as winners with Spain taking second spot, as they did better against Ireland than Croatia did.

Aha - that makes sense

Now for your follow up act... could you explain the other thing mentioned above - how, if this happened, would Italy beating Ireland 5-0 affect who finishes higher out of Spain & Croatia? I'm so confused... I'm glad it's a Friday.

 

[Mellotron]

There is NO way that Spain will not want to do everything they can to make sure they finish 1st. Non thread.

 

[MattBackHome]

There is NO way that Spain will not want to do everything they can to make sure they finish 1st. Non thread.

Agreed.

Spain will beat Croatia no worries.

Italy will beat Ireland unless they totally lose their heads again.

Spain & Italy to progress.

 

[Bold Seagull]

There is NO way that Spain will not want to do everything they can to make sure they finish 1st. Non thread.

Completely. What a load of crap. Spain will want to win every game building up momentum, getting players like Torres in form. Win 3 matches and they're in the final. That is all they'll be thinking.

 

[Normal Rob]

There is NO way that Spain will not want to do everything they can to make sure they finish 1st. Non thread.

I'm not so sure - it depends on whether they have a sense of humour or not;-)

 

[DTES]

There is NO way that Spain will not want to do everything they can to make sure they finish 1st. Non thread.

Spain might want to make sure they don't meet Italy again in the final. But it's pretty unlikely - if the bookies are slashing the odds on the draw, I imagine that probably increases the value available on a Spanish win.

 

[Woodchip]

Where teams finish level on points, only their head to head results count in determining their final positions. That would mean the only results that matter in determining the top 3 positions would be:

Spain 1-1 Italy
Croatia 1-1 Italy
Spain ?-? Croatia.

If it finished a draw, 2-2 or higher then Spain and Croatia would go through on goals scored
If it finished 1-1, then their respective results against Ireland would be considered, meaning Spain would go through and Italy would go through instead of Croatia if they could do better than the 3-1 that Croatia managed. And Italy would be group winners if they managed to beat Ireland 5-0.
If it finished 0-0, Italy would be through as winners with Spain taking second spot, as they did better against Ireland than Croatia did.

How about Spain-Croatia drawing 3-3 or 4-4?

 

[Everest]

How about Spain-Croatia drawing 3-3 or 4-4?

Then that would be covered by the first option

"If it finished a draw, 2-2 or higher then Spain and Croatia would go through on goals scored"

 

[Simster]

Aha - that makes sense

Now for your follow up act... could you explain the other thing mentioned above - how, if this happened, would Italy beating Ireland 5-0 affect who finishes higher out of Spain & Croatia? I'm so confused... I'm glad it's a Friday.

In short, Italy v Ireland will have no impact on who finishes higher out of Spain and Croatia, providing Spain and Croatia draw 2-2 or higher.

If Spain and Croatia drew 2-2 or higher, then unless Ireland win their last game the final positions will be

Spain
Croatia
Italy
Ireland

To explain why, and assuming Italy beat Ireland and the other game is 2-2 or higher:
Firstly, Spain Croatia and Italy would have the same number of points, so their 3 game head to head record are initially used to determine their final positions.
Italy would be third, because head to head, they fared the worst by scoring fewer goals against the other two teams. That still leaves positions 1 and 2 to be determined:
Spain would be top. Because they are level with Croatia in that 3 way head-to-head, their result against Ireland is used as a tiebreaker - and Spain's was better than Croatia's.

So Italy could win 10-0 against Ireland, but would still finish 3rd because their goal difference is less relevant than the head-to-head records against teams it has the same number of points with.

 

[Woodchip]

Then that would be covered by the first option

"If it finished a draw, 2-2 or higher then Spain and Croatia would go through on goals scored"

D'oh!! I really must learn how to read before I end up like Henry.

 

[DTES]

In short, Italy v Ireland will have no impact on who finishes higher out of Spain and Croatia, providing Spain and Croatia draw 2-2 or higher.

Ok - that's the bit I was completely misreading.

When I read the first page, I thought it was being said that Spain definitely wouldn't settle for this 2-2 "fix" as Italy could win 5-0 and then they (Spain) wouldn't win the group. My bad. Thanks again

 

[Simster]

When you look at how the tables are constructed, it is not surprising how the whole method is a bit misleading.

The assumption is that league position is detemined by a method something like this:

Most number of points
Goal difference
Goals scored


Certainly in tournaments like this, that isn't the case. It's determined like this:

Most number of points
For multiple teams on the same number of points, create a mini league based on:
.....Most number of points
.....Goal difference
.....Goals scored
Goal difference
Goals scored


You can see that the traditional table doesn't actually tell you what you need to know, as it misses the whole "for teams level on points" thing.

 

[DTES]

When you look at how the tables are constructed, it is not surprising how the whole method is a bit misleading.

The assumption is that league position is detemined by a method something like this:

Most number of points
Goal difference
Goals scored


Certainly in tournaments like this, that isn't the case. It's determined like this:

Most number of points
For multiple teams on the same number of points, create a mini league based on:
Most number of points
Goal difference
Goals scored
Goal difference
Goals scored


You can see that the traditional table doesn't actually tell you what you need to know, as it misses the whole "for teams level on points" thing.

You're right - but I suspect it was created on the assumption that 3 teams all finishing level on points would be pretty rare and that it would more commonly be used for 2 teams. From that perspective I can totally understand the logic - if two teams finish level on points but one beat the other in their match against each other, it's a reasonable argument that they should be the team to progress.

 

[Simster]

You're right - but I suspect it was created on the assumption that 3 teams all finishing level on points would be pretty rare and that it would more commonly be used for 2 teams. From that perspective I can totally understand the logic - if two teams finish level on points but one beat the other in their match against each other, it's a reasonable argument that they should be the team to progress.

The current logic is perfectly reasonable too, IMO as the head to head records should be of more value than extra goals against the group's whipping boys.

There is always a down-side to group stages however you organise it - here it is that the score could easily be contrived to send both Spain and Croatia through. But I don't think this sort of thing can EVER be prevented because ultimately in a group competition, if two teams play each other and there is a mutually agreeable scoreline available, then it is always going to be open to abuse.

 

[DTES]

The current logic is perfectly reasonable too, IMO as the head to head records should be of more value than extra goals against the group's whipping boys.

There is always a down-side to group stages however you organise it - here it is that the score could easily be contrived to send both Spain and Croatia through. But I don't think this sort of thing can EVER be prevented because ultimately in a group competition, if two teams play each other and there is a mutually agreeable scoreline available, then it is always going to be open to abuse.

I see what you mean, but the difference from 2 teams to 3 teams is you can't ever split 2 teams on goals scored head-to-head; if it's a draw it's a draw and you move on to comparing records against other teams.

Extra goals against the whipping boys, for me, are more important than goals scored within the 'mini-league' - stuffing Ireland out-of-sight rather than scraping past them 1-0 should be more important than whether your draw with Croatia was 2-2 or 1-1.

There's no perfect solution though...

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

I see what you mean, but the difference from 2 teams to 3 teams is you can't ever split 2 teams on goals scored head-to-head; if it's a draw it's a draw and you move on to comparing records against other teams.

Extra goals against the whipping boys, for me, are more important than goals scored within the 'mini-league' - stuffing Ireland out-of-sight rather than scraping past them 1-0 should be more important than whether your draw with Croatia was 2-2 or 1-1.

There's no perfect solution though...

I'd disagree with this. If that was the case then Italy would now be at an advantage as they will be playing against an Irish side with nothing to play for and so more likely to win heavily. The mini league is fairest as it eliminates the whipping boys from the equation.

 

[kevo]

This scenario is always more likely to happen if you count head-to-head results ahead of GD.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

head to head goal difference makes sense, if the three teams had all beaten one other in the mini-league.But goals scored is rubbish, is a 2-2 draw really better than 1-1?

Anyway, no-one has explained how Croatia are going to get enough ball to score twice against Spain, so its all moo

 

[Gritt23]

You can imagine the uproar now the Italians will create if this happens!!!

Are you suggesting that the Italians would take the moral high ground amongst claims of match fixing?

 

[DTES]

I'd disagree with this. If that was the case then Italy would now be at an advantage as they will be playing against an Irish side with nothing to play for and so more likely to win heavily. The mini league is fairest as it eliminates the whipping boys from the equation.

I think that's a far smaller advantage than the advantage Spain & Croatia currently have under this system...