Southern Rail STRIKE details

[Beach Hut]

what is not believable? i reckon thats 18000 man days (counting 2 8 hr shifts a day, probably underestimating), so thats 5.5%. which doesnt even sound particulalry unusual.

and should be easily covered by staff on call, rota'd for sick cover etc. presumably the problem is down to the refusal to give/take overtime, not the sickness itself.

There was something about all this in the Standard tonight, it appears clearly either GTR or RMT are not telling the truth, GTR must be very confident as they went to the press over this.

 

[beorhthelm]

it appears clearly either GTR or RMT are not telling the truth,

i wouldnt trust either, im sure both will manipulate and present the numbers in a manner to suit their argument. end of day, GTR dont need to be causing the problem and really need to be looking at increasing staff to improve service levels. like they have started to do with drivers realising they had a shortfall. on the other hand the RMT need to wake up that strikes make them look bad rather than GTR.

 

[Beach Hut]

i wouldnt trust either, im sure both will manipulate and present the numbers in a manner to suit their argument. end of day, GTR dont need to be causing the problem and really need to be looking at increasing staff to improve service levels. like they have started to do with drivers realising they had a shortfall. on the other hand the RMT need to wake up that strikes make them look bad rather than GTR.

My take on this is unless senior GTR managers have had their vision clouded by potential huge bonuses for implementing these changes then surely they would not openly lie ?

 

[Ernest]

There was something about all this in the Standard tonight, it appears clearly either GTR or RMT are not telling the truth, GTR must be very confident as they went to the press over this.

Statistics that can be made to say whatever they want them to say, not worth the thousands it cost to publicise them

 

[Buzzer]

what is not believable? i reckon thats 18000 man days (counting 2 8 hr shifts a day, probably underestimating), so thats 5.5%. which doesnt even sound particulalry unusual.

and should be easily covered by staff on call, rota'd for sick cover etc. presumably the problem is down to the refusal to give/take overtime, not the sickness itself.

Sorry, I'm not following your logic. 18000 man days/300 conductors = 60 days worked in a month! Am I missing something?

My calcs would be 300 staff x 20 days worked a month (on the basis that 5 days a week over a month less holidays) = 6000 man days worked Sickness = 1000/6000 = 17%. It sounds about right - if you divide the 1000 days sick amongst the 300 staff that's just 3.33 days each conductor - about 1/6 of their working month.

A sickness rate approaching 20% is abnormally high, I reckon.

 

[Beach Hut]

Sorry, I'm not following your logic. 18000 man days/300 conductors = 60 days worked in a month! Am I missing something?

My calcs would be 300 staff x 20 days worked a month (on the basis that 5 days a week over a month less holidays) = 6000 man days worked Sickness = 1000/6000 = 17%. It sounds about right - if you divide the 1000 days sick amongst the 300 staff that's just 3.33 days each conductor - about 1/6 of their working month.

A sickness rate approaching 20% is abnormally high, I reckon.

Shockingly high I think most large companies make contingency for around 5 days sickness per annum per employee

 

[beorhthelm]

Sorry, I'm not following your logic. 18000 man days/300 conductors = 60 days worked in a month! Am I missing something?

the 2 shifts. on reflection i may have boobed there and its really 9000 man days. and your numbers make more sense. still end up with believable if high rate.

 

[Buzzer]

the 2 shifts. on reflection i may have boobed there and its really 9000. and your numbers make more sense. still end up with believable if high rate.

Sorry if I'm still being thick but 9000 working days/300 staff = 30 days per person per month. I'm ignorant on their working patterns but do they really work the equivalent of 30 days a month?

 

[Ernest]

When they post their little stats they don't mention that they include a Conductor who is sick but not actually meant to be at work that day or that week, Conductors don't work 9-5 Monday to Friday but an average of 35 hours over a set number of weeks so some weeks they don't work at all.

Unless they publish the depot stats with exactly how many Conductors say who are booked to work today and are sick and how many Conductors have volunteered to work overtime today then that would be a more factual statistic as well as show the comparable time a year ago.

 

[Beach Hut]

When they post their little stats they don't mention that they include a Conductor who is sick but not actually meant to be at work that day or that week, Conductors don't work 9-5 Monday to Friday but an average of 35 hours over a set number of weeks so some weeks they don't work at all.

Unless they publish the depot stats with exactly how many Conductors say who are booked to work today and are sick and how many Conductors have volunteered to work overtime today then that would be a more factual statistic as well as show the comparable time a year ago.

One thing that puzzles me is that Thomas Detank Engine tweet stated only 4 people were actually off sick at Brighton depot so if that was the case and presumably trains were cancelled were conductors at work but not allocated shifts ?

 

[Buzzer]

When they post their little stats they don't mention that they include a Conductor who is sick but not actually meant to be at work that day or that week, Conductors don't work 9-5 Monday to Friday but an average of 35 hours over a set number of weeks so some weeks they don't work at all.

Unless they publish the depot stats with exactly how many Conductors say who are booked to work today and are sick and how many Conductors have volunteered to work overtime today then that would be a more factual statistic as well as show the comparable time a year ago.

Cheers for the info. 35 hrs a week is about 20 days a week with holidays taken into account so I reckon my fag packet calculations are near enough to put that sickness rate at somewhere between 15% and 20%.

If there are conductors working overtime to cover the sickness as you say then it would appear to me that there are a hardcore of conductors who are long-term sick or who are being obstructive. The converse is that there are also a hardcore group of conductors putting their shift in and then some. The water is obviously muddied if someone records themselves sick and it spans shifts and days off and I don't how the company deals with that. I've done statistical work before on sickness rates for a few companies and when people are sick over non-work days these tend to be removed from figures otherwise you aren't comparing like with like.


Edit: 20 days a month, not week!

 

[ROSM]

One thing that puzzles me is that Thomas Detank Engine tweet stated only 4 people were actually off sick at Brighton depot so if that was the case and presumably trains were cancelled were conductors at work but not allocated shifts ?

Or who were actually standing next to the train when it was cancelled due to staff sickness as I saw at London Bridge this week

In the end it turned out the driver was delayed due to a previous train cancelled as a driver was delayed by another train to meet the train he was due to drive

 

[Beach Hut]

In the end it turned out the driver was delayed due to a previous train cancelled as a driver was delayed by another train to meet the train he was due to drive

Are you Sir Humphry Appleby by any chance ?

 

[ROSM]

Cheers for the info. 35 hrs a week is about 20 days a week with holidays taken into account so I reckon my fag packet calculations are near enough to put that sickness rate at somewhere between 15% and 20%.

If there are conductors working overtime to cover the sickness as you say then it would appear to me that there are a hardcore of conductors who are long-term sick or who are being obstructive. The converse is that there are also a hardcore group of conductors putting their shift in and then some. The water is obviously muddied if someone records themselves sick and it spans shifts and days off and I don't how the company deals with that. I've done statistical work before on sickness rates for a few companies and when people are sick over non-work days these tend to be removed from figures otherwise you aren't comparing like with like.

Yep you're right
That's how proper analytics are done but I have doubts on these numbers especially as sickness at many companies won't include staff who are on medication as their company will still allow them.to work. However the same medication precludes staff on railways from working. Admittedly this maybe only covers a couple of the % of sickness

 

[ROSM]

Are you Sir Humphry Appleby by any chance ?

It made sense when I wrote it

Basically a normal.delay 2 trains further up the chain caused a driver to not be there to drive the train. The guard was there but southern still announced it as staff sickness being the cause

 

[Beach Hut]

It made sense when I wrote it

Basically a normal.delay 2 trains further up the chain caused a driver to not be there to drive the train. The guard was there but southern still announced it as staff sickness being the cause

If that is the case then GTR are being very economical with the truth to say the least

 

[Deadly Danson]

Southern have also now started running 313s all the way to Southampton. So no toilets for a nearly 2 hour trip. Putting passengers first as usual.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Southern have also now started running 313s all the way to Southampton. So no toilets for a nearly 2 hour trip. Putting passengers first as usual.

That's a effing disgrace! What are you supposed to do, piss yourself!?

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[Deadly Danson]

That's a effing disgrace! What are you supposed to do, piss yourself!?

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And I've just seen on twitter that they are blaming this stock change on a shortage of train crew. Genuinely. You couldn't make it up. The contempt I feel for this company is beyond belief. All I want to do is transport the public in comfort, on time and safely and this contemptible rabble make that impossible.

 

[Ernest]

And I've just seen on twitter that they are blaming this stock change on a shortage of train crew. Genuinely. You couldn't make it up. The contempt I feel for this company is beyond belief. All I want to do is transport the public in comfort, on time and safely and this contemptible rabble make that impossible.

It's gone beyond contempt, they really don't care anymore as long as they can smash the guards and then smash the drivers