Snow! Will we get any?

[scarby]

Have a look here... if you use the sliding bar on the right, you an see (at least at the moment) that Austria is due a major snowfall at the 132-144hours range.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/alps

With our possible cold snap coming from the east, and also with a med / european low pressure driving the cold air over us, I'd say the Alps will get a very heavy dump of snow early to mid next week.

Papa

music to ones muffed ears.......... cheers

 

[bhaexpress]

I'm pretty sure there'll be plenty of snow where I will be.

 

[Yoda]

Papa, did you see the 06Z run?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Papa, did you see the 06Z run?

Yep... just waiting for the 12z run to start to appear. the UKMO is now the worry, as it seems to push the high too far north, although I feel that will increase the chance of snow at Xmas, rather than before.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I'm pretty sure there'll be plenty of snow where I will be.

Where are you off to? Skiing?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Severe Weather Warning - well maybe

**please note that these charts are only valid on the evening of 9th Dec, as they will be over-written by the next model run for each organisation**

I'm not going to start a new thread for this, but we now have pretty good model agreement for a possibly severe cold spell, the exact start of which is still unsure, but we will certainly see it get colder over the weekend, and by the end fo next week we could, and I stress could, be seeing a cold / snowy spell akin to the 1980s classics.

ECM - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

UKMO - http://91.121.93.17/wz/pics/Rukm1441.gif

GFS - http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1441.png

GEM - http://91.121.93.17/wz/pics/Rgem1201.gif

JMA - http://91.121.93.17/wz/pics/Rjma1441.gif

GME - http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgme1321.gif

NOGAPS - http://91.121.93.17/wz/pics/Rngp1441.gif

Clearly these charts may mean nothing to you, but they all show some key 'themes'.

1. Extensive High Pressure (blocking to our North).
2. Low pressure to our south or East
3. An established Omega block, with the jet stream split between a southern track over Spain / France, and a northern limb which goes all the way up to the pole and back down to the UK, with low pressure system running down to us from Scandinavia.

Admittedly the charts above don't all show a raging easterly and snow, but some do, and the more reliable ones (ECM, UKMO and GFS in that order) do show some incredible scenarios a little later, but the point I'm making here is the setup is in place.

For a futher view... this is an amazing forecast chart: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

as is this: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png

Put it this way, I can't guarantee this will happen, we've been bitten in the arse many times before over phantom cold spells, but this has the feel of something special about it (if you like cold and snow that is).

Papa

 

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

Don't relly get all the weather maps but looks cold - am i right in thinking this is the forcast for 18th/19th Dec ?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Don't relly get all the weather maps but looks cold - am i right in thinking this is the forcast for 18th/19th Dec ?

I'm not specifically forecasting for a certain date, but the gist is that we're in for a change to a much cold (and possibly snowier) outlook into and possibly beyond next week.

The colours are deceptive on the charts, and they refer to temps at certain altitudes and at time heights, but they all show cold weather

 

[Taybha]

looking at that wezzersnitzel doodar thingymabob its looking good for a dusting over norwich and the eastern counties . tiny tim may yet get his new villa top after all

 

[Everest]

I'll just wait for Spielberg's forecast (if we get one) then take the complete opposite.

 

[bhaexpress]

Where are you off to? Skiing?

No, too old and too fat, I'll be in Canada, leaving tomorrow.

 

[Lethargic]

Seems you are not the only one predicting changing conditions and the possibility of snow, snow-forcast.com has the following message:

"Winter weather warning for Western Europe issued 09:00 GMT Tuesday Dec 8th. Following a very mild autumn in Britain and the near continent much colder conditions will develop across most of Europe by the weekend. Next week should see significant snowfalls for the Alps and the Pyrenees as well as snow falling to lower elevations across large parts of mainland Europe. Update 04:00 Thu Dec 10th. Snow likely to affect parts of Britain later in the week"

Might be a little early in terms of timing.

 

[Weatherman]

The last really white Christmas I remember in Brighton was 1962 - it seems to rain a lot though.

The snow started on Boxing day 1962
1970 was very snowy and in 1981 snow was laying on the more elevated inland parts of town.

 

[casbom]

I think it's safe to say now that it'll be cold from now until at least later on next week. After that there are too many variables to take into account so until we get to Monday, I wouldn't hazard a guess as to what is going to happen!

Worst case scenario for end of next week (if you like snow) is for low pressure to come up from the south and even though we'll initially have snow, it will turn to rain as the north get blizzards. This low system stalls to our North so we end up for christmas being mild and wet with Scotland getting snowed in!

Best case scenario is we get constant snow showers through next week and then some more organised snow (again from the south) but this time it's held back by the block to our north so the low stalls and slips away to the SE, all the time giving us in the south plenty of snow! Then after this slips SE we get a North Easterly blast with more snow showers/troughs up to and including Christmas day!

 

[porkypie]

My farm, on facebook is covered init! Dos that count?

 

[larus]

What's the latest then Papa?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

What's the latest then Papa?

It's looking cold to very cold next week, with a good chance of some snow wed / thurs, but mainly in the form of showers (so unpredictable).

Later in the week it now appears that a low will drop down from the N, and it's the path of this that will determine whether we get a big dump of snow or perhaps rain .

The Metoffice have just issued a very wintry forecast, which includes a cold / wintry Xmas period.

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Dec 2009 to Saturday 26 Dec 2009:

The cold weather continues with a biting northeasterly wind and some sleet or snow showers. These are likely to be most frequent in eastern parts with the risk of some heavy snow over high ground. Western parts of the UK will be mostly dry and have the best of the sunshine. From Saturday (19th) until Monday (21st) the weather remains cold with overnight frost and some icy surfaces. Further rain, sleet and snow showers are likely in eastern and northeastern parts but with a risk of the wintry weather spreading to many parts of the UK. Breezy at times and feeling very cold in the wind. From Monday (21st) until Boxing Day (26th) it looks like staying cold with further wintry showers.

Updated: 1111 on Sat 12 Dec 2009

And they know their onions...

 

[El Presidente]

Papa, my wife is a keen photographer, and is hoping to go to Whitby (North East coast) next weekend as a colony of seals is there and the tides are right for afternoon shots (when the light is best). What's the chances of it staying dry (and ideally bright).

Ta

EP

x

 

[Papa Lazarou]

If anyone wants an easy way to check the model output, the French Met Service (Meteociel) have a good page to use:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2

This is the Precipitation Type forecast from the latest GFS (American) model run. Just roll the mouse over the coloured buttons next to the numbers and it shows the evolution. An animation is also available (click on Anim at the top).

'Suite' takes you to the low resolution extended part of the forecast.

Other view are available under the title Cartes du modèle GFS Europe

The [ z500-PRMSL ] is good to just see the normal Isobar view, and [ Temp. 850hPa ] gives an indication of temp (these are temps at 850Hpa, which is a pressure level in the atmos, but generally anything below about -7C will give snow to Sea Level.

Further up at the top, you can view other models:

GFS Europe [ GFS 0.5° ] - [ ECMWF ] - [ UKMO Europe ] - [ GEFS Ensemble ] - [ GEM ] - [ JMA ] - [ NOGAPS ]

There's a huge amount of model data to view.

GFS update 4 times a day, ECMWF & UKMO twice, and the others once.

Have fun.

P

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Papa, my wife is a keen photographer, and is hoping to go to Whitby (North East coast) next weekend as a colony of seals is there and the tides are right for afternoon shots (when the light is best). What's the chances of it staying dry (and ideally bright).

Ta

EP

x

I'd say that the NE coast will see the best chance of snow, with showers coming in off the North Sea... however, next weekend is a long way off.

One thing we all need to bear in mind about snow is that it's very difficult to forecast when / where at this range (unless there's a significant feature on the way). In a cold & unstable airflow small but potent features (such as the famous polar lows) will develop, and enhance the shower activity, and in an E to NE wind, this is where Sussex gets its snow generally.