[Politics] Sir Keir Starmer’s route to Number 10

[beorhthelm]

Tice/Farage just want to be MPs, I can see them given a "safe" Tory seat somewhere in exchange for them withdrawing candidates from some areas

about as likely as Labour agreeing a pre-election pact with Liberals and SNP.

 

[Weststander]

Yes it goes to show two things; firstly that the position of the Conservative Party is indeed dire and secondly that the usual suspects on NSC only have a problem with YouGov polls when they don’t like the results. Who’d have thought?

 

[rogersix]

That's one interpretation.

The more cynical might say he has no workable plan.

Like the Tories workable plan?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Boundary changes have ensured Labour needs a 12% swing to win a majority despite the polls. Blair 'only' achieved a 10% swing.

General election: Labour would need record swing to win

Analysis shows the effect of the new election boundaries. Use our tool to look up your constituency.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[clapham_gull]

Good heavens ! I quoted a YouGov poll on here once and was absolutely hounded for quoting a company that was funded by tories!!!

This poll was directly commissioned and funded by Tories, irrespective of the ownership of the company.

They are using it to put pressure on Sunak to change direction.

 

[Rdodge30]

This poll was directly commissioned and funded by Tories, irrespective of the ownership of the company.

They are using it to put pressure on Sunak to change direction.

Ok but are there any other polls which say anything different?

 

[beorhthelm]

Boundary changes have ensured Labour needs a 12% swing to win a majority despite the polls. Blair 'only' achieved a 10% swing.

General election: Labour would need record swing to win

Analysis shows the effect of the new election boundaries. Use our tool to look up your constituency.

www.bbc.co.uk

the large swing reflects starting from ~70 seats fewer now than Labour had in 1997 (202 last election, 273 going into 1997). the boundry changes account for 7 seat difference.

and the swing is even larger for only England, those Scottish seats are going to be so much more important.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Ok but are there any other polls which say anything different?

I'll commission one as soon as I have decided what I want the answer to be

 

[lawros left foot]

As a lifelong Labour supporter and voter( apart from Blair’s final election) I have now reached the very tough decision of not voting Labour, and I’m going Green.

I’m am a Socialist, I have bitten my tongue in the past and voted for people like Kinnock and Blair in the hope that if elected, they would shift to the left.

To be fair, Blair’s first term was acceptable, even if he didn’t go far enough, but
, I did feel he had a lot of talent in his Cabinet.

In all consciencenes, I simply cannot vote for Starmer and his right of centre party. He has broken every pledge he has made, to my mind, he became Party leader under false pretences.

 

[WATFORD zero]

As a lifelong Labour supporter and voter( apart from Blair’s final election) I have now reached the very tough decision of not voting Labour, and I’m going Green.

I’m am a Socialist, I have bitten my tongue in the past and voted for people like Kinnock and Blair in the hope that if elected, they would shift to the left.

To be fair, Blair’s first term was acceptable, even if he didn’t go far enough, but
, I did feel he had a lot of talent in his Cabinet. In all consciencenes, I simply cannot vote for Starmer and his right of centre party. He has broken every pledge he has made, to my mind, he became Party leader under false pretences.

I don't think anyone will argue that Starmer isn't right of centre, very similar to Blair and I admire you sticking to your principles and voting in a FPTP election for the person you think best represents you in worthing

But that centre right Government has always been the most popular with the electorate over the last 40 years.

And I'll continue to admire you principles if your vote contributes to yet another Sunak Government, even as the vast majority of Britain continues to suffer as a small elite continue to do well. But I reserve the right to think that maybe you are a little naive

 

[chickens]

I don't think anyone will argue that Starmer isn't right of centre, very similar to Blair and I admire you sticking to your principles and voting in a FPTP election for the person you think best represents you in worthing

But that centre right Government has always been the most popular with the electorate over the last 40 years.

And I'll continue to admire you principles if your vote contributes to yet another Sunak Government, even as the vast majority of Britain continues to suffer as a small elite continue to do well. But I reserve the right to think that maybe you are a little naive

Seconded. Socialist governments don’t get elected in the UK. I am infinitely weary of voters clamouring for change, and then running scared the second somebody actually suggests something different to the status quo, yet here we are. The same Groundhog Day loop that we’re all stuck in.

Now nobody mention the Zutons.

 

[beorhthelm]

As a lifelong Labour supporter and voter( apart from Blair’s final election) I have now reached the very tough decision of not voting Labour, and I’m going Green.

I’m am a Socialist, I have bitten my tongue in the past and voted for people like Kinnock and Blair in the hope that if elected, they would shift to the left.

To be fair, Blair’s first term was acceptable, even if he didn’t go far enough, but
, I did feel he had a lot of talent in his Cabinet.

In all consciencenes, I simply cannot vote for Starmer and his right of centre party. He has broken every pledge he has made, to my mind, he became Party leader under false pretences.

see quite a lot of this sort of thing, and it's mirror, the Conservative voter who thinks they've gone too left, spend too much etc, and off to support Reform. i wonder if our next election will be decided by how many genuinely mean it and vote against the left/right center.

 

[lawros left foot]

I don't think anyone will argue that Starmer isn't right of centre, very similar to Blair and I admire you sticking to your principles and voting in a FPTP election for the person you think best represents you in worthing

But that centre right Government has always been the most popular with the electorate over the last 40 years.

And I'll continue to admire you principles if your vote contributes to yet another Sunak Government, even as the vast majority of Britain continues to suffer as a small elite continue to do well. But I reserve the right to think that maybe you are a little naive

The first election I was old enough to vote was Thatchers annihilation of Callaghan in 79.
I voted Labour, because, even at the tender age of 20 I realised that the Tory’s didn’t represent a working class person like me.

I have consistently voted for a party I knew, realistically had no chance of winning. My vote has never, ever made one iotas worth of difference to the final outcome of any election, apart from the last couple of local council elections.
It does make me feel very sad that I can’t vote Labour again, under the present leadership.
I am of the opinion now, that there is so little difference between the two main parties that a vote for Labour will only continue the truly horrific policies of the present incumbents. I believe Starmer has admitted as much.

In the end, my beliefs have never changed, the Labour party’s have changed so much, I’m afraid, I no longer recognise them.

 

[WATFORD zero]

The first election I was old enough to vote was Thatchers annihilation of Callaghan in 79.
I voted Labour, because, even at the tender age of 20 I realised that the Tory’s didn’t represent a working class person like me.

I have consistently voted for a party I knew, realistically had no chance of winning. My vote has never, ever made one iotas worth of difference to the final outcome of any election, apart from the last couple of local council elections.
It does make me feel very sad that I can’t vote Labour again, under the present leadership.
I am of the opinion now, that there is so little difference between the two main parties that a vote for Labour will only continue the truly horrific policies of the present incumbents. I believe Starmer has admitted as much.

In the end, my beliefs have never changed, the Labour party’s have changed so much, I’m afraid, I no longer recognise them.

I think you have a completely valid point under FPTP, but the simple fact is your vote has the same effect as mine and everybody elses.

And further to that, under the two party scheme that FPTP and this country encourages and supports, apart from a tiny number of seats (The People's Republic of Brighton and Hove being the most obvious ) if you don't vote for one of the two, your vote is implicit in getting the other one elected.

I suspect that it angers me even more than you, but it's a simple fact of life. Sorry

 

[clapham_gull]

Ok but are there any other polls which say anything different?

No and I presume the stats are legit, but it is worth remembering this ones comes with an agenda.

Especially the client journalism reporting of it.

Together it shows a Conservative party at war with itself in a way only Jeremy Corbyn could compete with.

Tories commissioning a poll to show how unpopular they are.

Political parties at war with each other lose elections.

 

[Hugo Rune]

The first election I was old enough to vote was Thatchers annihilation of Callaghan in 79.
I voted Labour, because, even at the tender age of 20 I realised that the Tory’s didn’t represent a working class person like me.

I have consistently voted for a party I knew, realistically had no chance of winning. My vote has never, ever made one iotas worth of difference to the final outcome of any election, apart from the last couple of local council elections.
It does make me feel very sad that I can’t vote Labour again, under the present leadership.
I am of the opinion now, that there is so little difference between the two main parties that a vote for Labour will only continue the truly horrific policies of the present incumbents. I believe Starmer has admitted as much.

In the end, my beliefs have never changed, the Labour party’s have changed so much, I’m afraid, I no longer recognise them.

It might make you very sad but this post makes Tories extremely happy. If they can cut through with this ‘they are all the same’ narrative, there is still a chance they could stay in power.

Starmer is presenting a very small target at present. He comes across as the opposite of radical for a very good reason with his dullness and lack of Socialist headlines. But there are some people who have taken the time to read the policies behind the dull veneer….

Keir Starmer’s caution conceals a radical plan

The Labour leader has an ambitious programme for government, but does he have the skills to sell it to a weary electorate?

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[lawros left foot]

I think you have a completely valid point under FPTP, but the simple fact is your vote has the same effect as mine and everybody elses.

And further to that, under the two party scheme that FPTP and this country encourages and supports, apart from a tiny number of seats (The People's Republic of Brighton and Hove being the most obvious ) if you don't vote for one of the two, your vote is implicit in getting the other one elected.

I suspect that it angers me even more than you, but it's a simple fact of life. Sorry

I would argue my vote has been worthless all my voting life. I’ve always lived in Worthing, a seat that until recently, you could put a blue rosette on the proverbial Donkey and it would get voted in.

Unlike,a marginal seat where my vote would always count.

But, these are the drawbacks of having a voting system (FPTP) which is not fit for purpose in a modern democracy. (Alright, I know we’re not a modern democracy, but, humour me)

 

[WATFORD zero]

I would argue my vote has been worthless all my voting life. I’ve always lived in Worthing, a seat that until recently, you could put a blue rosette on the proverbial Donkey and it would get voted in.

Unlike,a marginal seat where my vote would always count.

But, these are the drawbacks of having a voting system (FPTP) which is not fit for purpose in a modern democracy. (Alright, I know we’re not a modern democracy, but, humour me)

I suspect that we agree on the vast majority of things compared to those few things we disagree on

 

[lawros left foot]

It might make you very sad but this post makes Tories extremely happy. If they can cut through with this ‘they are all the same’ narrative, there is still a chance they could stay in power.

Starmer is presenting a very small target at present. He comes across as the opposite of radical for a very good reason with his dullness and lack of Socialist headlines. But there are some people who have taken the time to read the policies behind the dull veneer….

Keir Starmer’s caution conceals a radical plan

The Labour leader has an ambitious programme for government, but does he have the skills to sell it to a weary electorate?

www.thetimes.co.uk

If, when Labours election manifesto is published, and it’s not to the right of the Lib Dems, I will review my voting intentions, but until then, I’m not holding my breath.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I would argue my vote has been worthless all my voting life. I’ve always lived in Worthing, a seat that until recently, you could put a blue rosette on the proverbial Donkey and it would get voted in.

Unlike,a marginal seat where my vote would always count.

But, these are the drawbacks of having a voting system (FPTP) which is not fit for purpose in a modern democracy. (Alright, I know we’re not a modern democracy, but, humour me)

Hasn‘t Worthing got a Labour council now?