[Politics] Sir Keir Starmer’s route to Number 10

[jcdenton08]

You're of the view that you know what the middle or centre is. Politics moves all the time. Attlee's two governments instigated a significant shift to the left, which set the postwar consensus which lasted for decades. Then Thatcher came along in 1979, and moved things significantly to the neoliberal right. What we've had to endure over the past decade is Tories moving things to different parts of the right to that.
And yet amongst all of that here you and all the other extremists and loons of the centre and middle content in the certainty that you know where and what that is. Also factor in that, given all we're ever allowed to have according to extremists of the centre is either the right or the centre, your entire analysis is constantly shifting things to the right.

Just me and the electorate, then.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Thought I'd repost this from the Corbyn 'party' thread:

As for Starmer and his apparent translucence, I recall the way Blair was portrayed before he was elected. The right decided the way to attack him was to portray him as 'weak' and 'inexperienced' with no policies. They tried to create the trope of 'Bambi Blair'. This had some traction for a while. But once Blair was in power, and rocked the party by binning clause 4 (something that was not advertised - a great example of not putting all your cards on the manifesto table) the epithet was never again used. We know nothing about how Starmer will fare as PM. Speculation will therefore abound, and skepticism manifest. I'm not bothered about that. Pleasingly many folk appear to have decided to vote Labour anyway, despite misgivings about Starmer. Sea change time.

 

[Rdodge30]

Well Sir Keir continues to be ..vague about his policies for change. He will be elected because of the Conservative Party’s failures in office, so of course he can choose to say nothing and still win - I read today a comment that sums it up perfectly:

“In a 2 horse race, if 1 horse loses the other automatically wins”

I’ve mentioned several times over the last few months or more that I would love to see The Plan … an early manifesto and some definite direction. Tony Blair was definite and set out his manifesto a year before the election- he’s the only leader of the opposition to win a majority in the last 40+ years

Whenever I’ve questioned this lack of ideas, the general response on here has been that Sir Keir would be foolish to let us in on his plans ….. because the “right wing media” will tear him down (Clearly that didn’t work against TB in 97 though?) but worry not, all will be made clear in good time. Patience is the key

Now though, on NSC I am increasingly reading many posts from the usual suspects- lowering expectations for the effectiveness of a Labour Government….. well, they won’t be able to bring about much change very quickly, not with the way things are under the tories!

I think he will get elected simply by running on the “not a Tory” ticket

I don’t think the manifesto will be any less vague than any of his policy speeches. I’d go as far to say if the manifesto is fully and correctly costed it won’t contain much of anything.

I think people are right to lower their expectations

 

[Is it PotG?]

Yeah, righto

 

[ROSM]

Yeah, righto

I assume the face palm is because he declared flying in a qatari funded private jet to a conference hosted in their country.

Given labour have vowed to cut back uk govt funded private jet use can you see the difference?

Note the use of declared..visible, public and open.

Its not the gotcha you think it is

 

[drew]

I’ve mentioned several times over the last few months or more that I would love to see The Plan … an early manifesto and some definite direction. Tony Blair was definite and set out his manifesto a year before the election- he’s the only leader of the opposition to win a majority in the last 40+ years

That's not really saying much bearing in mind in the last 40 years there's only been two elections won by the opposition!

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Yeah, righto

You're highlighting a flight he’s been open and honest about. Excellent work. I look forward to your next exclusive!

 

[Rdodge30]

That's not really saying much bearing in mind in the last 40 years there's only been two elections won by the opposition!

That’s the point I’m making

 

[WATFORD zero]

I assume the face palm is because he declared flying in a qatari funded private jet to a conference hosted in their country.

Given labour have vowed to cut back uk govt funded private jet use can you see the difference?

Note the use of declared..visible, public and open.

Its not the gotcha you think it is

It's more a reflection of how desperate @Is it PotG? is to try and find anything that may keep this current cabal in power for another minute or so. When all else fails, search Guido Fawkes

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Yeah, righto

What point are you trying to make?

 

[Weststander]

YouGov have carried out the largest poll in 5 years, 14,000 polled. The effect of Reform will contribute hugely to Starmer’s victory. With a crushing blow to the SNP, seats almost halved, Labour upping their seats from 2 to 23.

 

[Bodian]

That's not really saying much bearing in mind in the last 40 years there's only been two elections won by the opposition!

Really it's only one election. 2010 ended in a hung parliament leading to the coalition - so not really 'won' outright by the opposition.

 

[Rdodge30]

YouGov have carried out the largest poll in 5 years, 14,000 polled. The effect of Reform will contribute hugely to Starmer’s victory. With a crushing blow to the SNP, seats almost halved, Labour upping their seats from 2 to 23.

View attachment 172809View attachment 172810

Good heavens ! I quoted a YouGov poll on here once and was absolutely hounded for quoting a company that was funded by tories!!!

 

[ROSM]

Good heavens ! I quoted a YouGov poll on here once and was absolutely hounded for quoting a company that was funded by tories!!!

It is indeed. And one wonders why the poll is out and the point the telegraph (although yougov are distancing themselves from it) re Tice/Farage being the cause of the meltdown and if they didnt stand the tories might stand a chance

Todays research re new boundaries shows what we all felt at the time of the boundary review, that it helped the conservative party more.

To win an election from the point they were in 2019 is a mountain to climb for labour. Yes they have a consistent lead but there is so much more to be done

 

[Weststander]

Good heavens ! I quoted a YouGov poll on here once and was absolutely hounded for quoting a company that was funded by tories!!!

Just goes to show.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

YouGov have carried out the largest poll in 5 years, 14,000 polled. The effect of Reform will contribute hugely to Starmer’s victory. With a crushing blow to the SNP, seats almost halved, Labour upping their seats from 2 to 23.

View attachment 172809View attachment 172810

Tice/Farage just want to be MPs, I can see them given a "safe" Tory seat somewhere in exchange for them withdrawing candidates from some areas

 

[Weststander]

It is indeed. And one wonders why the poll is out and the point the telegraph (although yougov are distancing themselves from it) re Tice/Farage being the cause of the meltdown and if they didnt stand the tories might stand a chance

Todays research re new boundaries shows what we all felt at the time of the boundary review, that it helped the conservative party more.

To win an election from the point they were in 2019 is a mountain to climb for labour. Yes they have a consistent lead but there is so much more to be done

It’s right that boundary changes evolve. Without it we end up with lower electorate seats, typically a bunch of city centre seats. In times past this was more extreme with rotten boroughs. Now that term only applies to the smell of Croydon.

 

[ROSM]

It’s right that boundary changes evolve. Without it we end up with lower electorate seats, typically a bunch of city centre seats. In times past this was more extreme with rotten boroughs. Now that term only applies to the smell of Croydon.

I agree. Its sensible to balance electorate sizes.

However it nearly always benefits the incumbent. Thats why the 2010 consultation boundary changes didnt happen (lib dems wouldnt support) nor 2015 (lost on the tide of brexit)

Next likely change will be 2030 and if so consultation will start in 2026/7

 

[Rdodge30]

Just goes to show.

Yes it goes to show two things; firstly that the position of the Conservative Party is indeed dire and secondly that the usual suspects on NSC only have a problem with YouGov polls when they don’t like the results. Who’d have thought?

 

[GJN1]

You're highlighting a flight he’s been open and honest about. Excellent work. I look forward to your next exclusive!

Honesty in politics gets you nowhere.