Season end spreadsheet.

[Official Old Man]

So I've just done a spreadsheet for the final games. Presuming all games go to form with wins for teams close to the play-offs I finish with Brighton staying up on 47 points on goal difference only with Rotherham 47 Millwall 35 and Blackpool 22 the three departing.
Our only points come from Huddersfield at home and Watford at home. This only goes to show how important it is to pick up away points at teams around us, namely Millwall, Rotherham & Wigan.
This is worst scenario but would be eased with a win Tuesday and minimum a draw at Rotherham. Definitely don't want it going down to last game away to Boro.

 

[leigull]

Blimey, and I thought I erred on the side of caution when it came to predicting Brighton results!

 

[Seasidesage]

Bit negative for me. I think we will stay up, with probably a game or two to spare. Blackpool/Millwall are gone for me and Wigan are going to need title winning form to get out of it.

 

[Philzo-93]

You honestly think we are only going to pick up 6 points in our next 9 matches

 

[reigate]

So I've just done a spreadsheet for the final games. Presuming all games go to form with wins for teams close to the play-offs I finish with Brighton staying up on 47 points on goal difference only with Rotherham 47 Millwall 35 and Blackpool 22 the three departing.
Our only points come from Huddersfield at home and Watford at home. This only goes to show how important it is to pick up away points at teams around us, namely Millwall, Rotherham & Wigan.
This is worst scenario but would be eased with a win Tuesday and minimum a draw at Rotherham. Definitely don't want it going down to last game away to Boro.

How does current form suggest we will pick up so few points? Are you using last 2 games for us?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Well we could go Hyper-negative and assume the albion will suffer 9 defeats.

Meaning if Wigan pick up just 8 more points we'll go down.

Woe is us.

 

[Official Old Man]

You honestly think we are only going to pick up 6 points in our next 9 matches

OK tell me where, without any shadow of doubt, we will pick up guaranteed points.
A Millwall ? I'd hope a win, or draw.
A Blackburn, there season is over in reality.
H Norwich, rather not depend on a win against a top four team.
A Rotherham Who needs it most?
H Bournemouth who are top and winning all.
H Huddersfield should be three points, but they will srap for a draw.
A Wigan it may be they are in free fall or on a roll.
H Watford a top four team so again not easy.
A Boro and so it comes down to this.

We MUST win the away games against lower opposition to stay up.

 

[symyjym]

Well we could go Hyper-negative and assume the albion will suffer 9 defeats.

Meaning if Wigan pick up just 8 more points we'll go down.

Woe is us.

My concern is Wigan and when we play them it could be a six pointer as it will with Rotherham. This season could still end up a four horse relegation race on the last day of the season. 2 points from the last 5 away games isn't a good trend.

 

[Bozza]

Millwall

Millwall v Brighton Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Brentford v Millwall Sat 21 Mar 13:00 0
Millwall v Charlton Fri 3 Apr 15:00 3
Millwall v Watford Sat 11 Apr 15:00 0
Millwall v Wigan Tue 14 Apr 19:45 3
Cardiff v Millwall Sat 18 Apr 15:00 0
Blackburn v Millwall Tue 21 Apr 19:45 0
Millwall v Derby Sat 25 Apr 15:00 0
Wolves v Millwall Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 31 + Points gained 7 = 38

Wigan

Wigan v Watford Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Wigan v Bolton Sat 21 Mar 15:00 3
Middlesbrough v Wigan Fri 3 Apr 15:00 0
Wigan v Derby Mon 6 Apr 15:00 1
Fulham v Wigan Fri 10 Apr 20:00 1
Millwall v Wigan Tue 14 Apr 19:45 1
Wigan v Brighton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 3
Wigan v Wolves Sat 25 Apr 15:00 3
Brentford v Wigan Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 34 + Points gained 13 = 47

Albion

Millwall v Brighton Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Blackburn v Brighton Sat 21 Mar 15:00 0
Brighton v Norwich Fri 3 Apr 15:00 1
Rotherham v Brighton Mon 6 Apr 15:00 0
Brighton v Bournemouth Fri 10 Apr 19:45 1
Brighton v Huddersfield Tue 14 Apr 19:45 3
Wigan v Brighton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 0
Brighton v Watford Sat 25 Apr 15:00 1
Middlesbrough v Brighton Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 41 + Points gained 7 = 48

 

[Official Old Man]

Well we could go Hyper-negative and assume the albion will suffer 9 defeats.

Meaning if Wigan pick up just 8 more points we'll go down.

Woe is us.

Wigans 8 points - H Bolton, H Fulham, A Millwall, H Wolves plus H Albion is a real 6 pointer.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Millwall

Millwall v Brighton Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Brentford v Millwall Sat 21 Mar 13:00 0
Millwall v Charlton Fri 3 Apr 15:00 3
Millwall v Watford Sat 11 Apr 15:00 0
Millwall v Wigan Tue 14 Apr 19:45 3
Cardiff v Millwall Sat 18 Apr 15:00 0
Blackburn v Millwall Tue 21 Apr 19:45 0
Millwall v Derby Sat 25 Apr 15:00 0
Wolves v Millwall Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 31 + Points gained 7 = 38

Wigan

Wigan v Watford Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Wigan v Bolton Sat 21 Mar 15:00 3
Middlesbrough v Wigan Fri 3 Apr 15:00 0
Wigan v Derby Mon 6 Apr 15:00 1
Fulham v Wigan Fri 10 Apr 20:00 1
Millwall v Wigan Tue 14 Apr 19:45 1
Wigan v Brighton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 3
Wigan v Wolves Sat 25 Apr 15:00 3
Brentford v Wigan Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 34 + Points gained 13 = 47

Albion

Millwall v Brighton Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Blackburn v Brighton Sat 21 Mar 15:00 0
Brighton v Norwich Fri 3 Apr 15:00 1
Rotherham v Brighton Mon 6 Apr 15:00 0
Brighton v Bournemouth Fri 10 Apr 19:45 1
Brighton v Huddersfield Tue 14 Apr 19:45 3
Wigan v Brighton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 0
Brighton v Watford Sat 25 Apr 15:00 1
Middlesbrough v Brighton Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 41 + Points gained 7 = 48

You have us getting a single point from the three away games against Millwall, Rotherham and Wigan.

I'd hope we'd win at least one of those.

 

[Official Old Man]

BOZZA
I thought I was negative but you've only got one win. But it backs up my theory. It will be close.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Millwall

Millwall v Brighton Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Brentford v Millwall Sat 21 Mar 13:00 0
Millwall v Charlton Fri 3 Apr 15:00 3
Millwall v Watford Sat 11 Apr 15:00 0
Millwall v Wigan Tue 14 Apr 19:45 3
Cardiff v Millwall Sat 18 Apr 15:00 0
Blackburn v Millwall Tue 21 Apr 19:45 0
Millwall v Derby Sat 25 Apr 15:00 0
Wolves v Millwall Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 31 + Points gained 7 = 38

Wigan

Wigan v Watford Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Wigan v Bolton Sat 21 Mar 15:00 3
Middlesbrough v Wigan Fri 3 Apr 15:00 0
Wigan v Derby Mon 6 Apr 15:00 1
Fulham v Wigan Fri 10 Apr 20:00 1
Millwall v Wigan Tue 14 Apr 19:45 1
Wigan v Brighton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 3
Wigan v Wolves Sat 25 Apr 15:00 3
Brentford v Wigan Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 34 + Points gained 13 = 47

Albion

Millwall v Brighton Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Blackburn v Brighton Sat 21 Mar 15:00 0
Brighton v Norwich Fri 3 Apr 15:00 1
Rotherham v Brighton Mon 6 Apr 15:00 0
Brighton v Bournemouth Fri 10 Apr 19:45 1
Brighton v Huddersfield Tue 14 Apr 19:45 3
Wigan v Brighton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 0
Brighton v Watford Sat 25 Apr 15:00 1
Middlesbrough v Brighton Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 41 + Points gained 7 = 48

For the Millwall v Wigan game, you have Millwall getting three points, and Wigan also getting a point...

 

[LamieRobertson]

For the Millwall v Wigan game, you have Millwall getting three points, and Wigan also getting a point...

Clever!



IMHO ...one place will go down to the wire..also not sure why peeps haven't considered Fulham or Another to be in the mix.
I'd also say just trying to get 2 match results right on any given set of championship fixtures is hard enough!

 

[Rugrat]

Clever!

Fix

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Millwall fans will be predicting that they get minimum points, Wigan fans will be predicting that they get mimimum points, Rotherham fans etc. etc.

I absolutely believe that if we win at Millwall, and Watford win at Wigan tomorrow that we will stay up.


Other scenarios can be 'worried' about if we those results don't happen.

 

[Bozza]

For the Millwall v Wigan game, you have Millwall getting three points, and Wigan also getting a point...

That was absentmindedness as opposed to simple stupidity. I had Millwall to win but when I got to the Wigan fixtures, I reconsidered and changed my mind. "I'll change the Millwall 3 points to 1 point in a minute" I thought to myself. And then forgot.

 

[Stato]

Some helpful soul has linked a calculator to Grimsby's forum:

http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator2.php

I had us finishing on 51 points, with wins over 'Udders and Bournemouth (Howe has been so fortunate against us. We owe him one like we owed Derby)

 

[Blackadder]

Millwall

Millwall v Brighton Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Brentford v Millwall Sat 21 Mar 13:00 0
Millwall v Charlton Fri 3 Apr 15:00 3
Millwall v Watford Sat 11 Apr 15:00 0
Millwall v Wigan Tue 14 Apr 19:45 3
Cardiff v Millwall Sat 18 Apr 15:00 0
Blackburn v Millwall Tue 21 Apr 19:45 0
Millwall v Derby Sat 25 Apr 15:00 0
Wolves v Millwall Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 31 + Points gained 7 = 38

Wigan

Wigan v Watford Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Wigan v Bolton Sat 21 Mar 15:00 3
Middlesbrough v Wigan Fri 3 Apr 15:00 0
Wigan v Derby Mon 6 Apr 15:00 1
Fulham v Wigan Fri 10 Apr 20:00 1
Millwall v Wigan Tue 14 Apr 19:45 1
Wigan v Brighton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 3
Wigan v Wolves Sat 25 Apr 15:00 3
Brentford v Wigan Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 34 + Points gained 13 = 47

Albion

Millwall v Brighton Tue 17 Mar 19:45 1
Blackburn v Brighton Sat 21 Mar 15:00 0
Brighton v Norwich Fri 3 Apr 15:00 1
Rotherham v Brighton Mon 6 Apr 15:00 0
Brighton v Bournemouth Fri 10 Apr 19:45 1
Brighton v Huddersfield Tue 14 Apr 19:45 3
Wigan v Brighton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 0
Brighton v Watford Sat 25 Apr 15:00 1
Middlesbrough v Brighton Sat 2 May 12:15 0

Points so far 41 + Points gained 7 = 48

Rotherham and Fulham?

 

[Dan Aitch]

Well we're going to pick up three points at Millwall so some of this negativity will be interrupted by another nice win in London.