[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Ethelwulf]

Russia is on the verge of collapse and civil war . Putin would never use a nuclear bomb because he would be taken out by his own side before he could . The biggest worry for me is if Russia does collapse and several new nations emerge that have nuclear weapons that they might use against each other . The hatred built up over centuries will spill over .
Putins last hope of staying in power is Trump . If trump holds his nerve and goes big on Ukraine Russia will collapse
And to all those worried about nuclear war etc do you really think that Russia would allow Putin to use a nuclear bomb and the fact that behind the scenes the Americans were informed by Russia before they launched the missile yesterday to avoid any misunderstanding
And China who is keeping the Russians off life support has already said that any sort of nuclear strike from Russia would bring a response from them as well
China will invade Russia in the next 10 years to reclaim all the land the tsars took of them in the 19th century
The west has got to not blink and stand firm

 

[Easy 10]

Although I'm guessing there is nothing to stop him using another nation to attack Western interests arguing that it is no different to how Ukraine is being supported by proxy- or just denying it.

Exactly.

 

[Triggaaar]

No.
But I'm not talking about whether it would be 'justified' or not. We're dealing with an unpredictable crackpot dictator who at the moment is seeing British missiles pummelling his country. In his head, that might justify putting us in the crosshairs. An attack on a NATO nation would be a massive escalation obviously, so it could all be bluster as usual. We hope.

Yeah but you did say 'What should our response be, given that its basically what we are doing to Russia'. I disagree with that part.

I assume it's bluster but if we're attacked we'll respond.

 

[Commander]

Yeah but you did say 'What should our response be, given that its basically what we are doing to Russia'. I disagree with that part.

I assume it's bluster but if we're attacked we'll respond.

It doesn't matter if you disagree with it though, it's how Putin sees it. And I'm assuming he sees it like that.

 

[Triggaaar]

It doesn't matter if you disagree with it though, it's how Putin sees it. And I'm assuming he sees it like that.

I'm don't think he does see it as Britain firing missiles at Russia. If he does, then presumably he'll fire missiles at us. Has he done that yet?

And we should help Ukraine defend themselves based on international law, not based on how an evil dictator claims to see things.

 

[Eric the meek]

A failed ICBM, railways, the ruble, planes and inflation:

An 11 minute digest.

 

[driddles]

06:09 AM 1 USD = 101.489 Rub.
08:30 AM 1 USD = 102.383 Rub.

1 RUB to USD - Russian Rubles to US Dollars Exchange Rate

Get the latest 1 Russian Ruble to US Dollar rate for FREE with the original Universal Currency Converter. Set rate alerts for to and learn more about Russian Rubles and US Dollars from XE - the Currency Authority.

www.xe.com

9:31 AM EST - 1 USD = 103.037 Rub

 

[Eric the meek]

9:31 AM EST - 1 USD = 103.037 Rub

It's 14:33 here. Unfortunately for Russians, the market session is still open. The ruble is 1.5% down on the day.

67 more days of this (a week after MAGA hits the White House) and the ruble will be worth nothing. Zero.

 

[Easy 10]

I'm don't think he does see it as Britain firing missiles at Russia. If he does, then presumably he'll fire missiles at us. Has he done that yet?

And we should help Ukraine defend themselves based on international law, not based on how an evil dictator claims to see things.

Not yet, but this is a very recent escalation.

I agree, along with the other NATO nations we should absolutely continue to help Ukraine defend itself. But its going beyond that now - we are actively helping Ukraine to go on the attack and retaliate. There is a difference.

I'm not saying I think Putin would actually go nuclear, that would be mental. But he does have other levers to pull, including ICBM's. I don't think its exaggerrating to say we are potentially moving towards another Cuban missile crisis here.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Not yet, but this is a very recent escalation.

I agree, along with the other NATO nations we should absolutely continue to help Ukraine defend itself. But its going beyond that now - we are actively helping Ukraine to go on the attack and retaliate. There is a difference.

I'm not saying I think Putin would actually go nuclear, that would be mental. But he does have other levers to pull, including ICBM's. I don't think its exaggerrating to say we are potentially moving towards another Cuban missile crisis here.

I don't agree that we are going beyond helping Ukraine defend itself. The targets they are striking in Russia are contributing to Ukrainian defense by weakening the Russian's ability to attack them. They are not trying to conquer Russia. They are still defending their own country.

 

[fly high]

With all this talk on here & on the news of Putin's threats to bomb London my subconscious obviously went into overdrive last night. I very, very rarely remember dreams but this one has stuck.

I was driving across Ashdown Forest (live near it & driven across it many times), sun was out & windows were down, drove round a corner & hit a wall of black smoke. Radio wouldn't work so I drove on & eventually came back out into the sun. Looking north there where plumes of smoke rising then suddenly a large ball of smoke, just a ball. I found myself at a café!!! I asked a waitress if London was being bombed & she said it was. Then I woke up.....

Absolutely no way does my conscious mind think Putin will bomb London & if he were that stupid thousands of missiles would rain down on every military site in Russia from every NATO country.

 

[Easy 10]

I don't agree that we are going beyond helping Ukraine defend itself. The targets they are striking in Russia are contributing to Ukrainian defense by weakening the Russian's ability to attack them. They are not trying to conquer Russia. They are still defending their own country.

I don't disagree with that reasoning. But you are assuming that Putin would see it the same way, when right now he is receiving British and American missiles inside Russian territory. Add in the fact that we don't really control exactly where Ukraine are lobbing them, and its an all-new tinderbox.

Sabre-rattling from the Kremlin is nothing new of course. But we've not been in this territory before.

 

[driddles]

Interesting article that discusses how South Korea may play into Ukraine's defence in the upcoming year and why losing the US may not be a death blow https://gwynnedyer.com/2024/ukraine-war-south-korea-to-the-rescue/

Gwynne Dyer's articles are in my local paper, no idea if he has international reach

 

[Triggaaar]

Not yet, but this is a very recent escalation.

I agree, along with the other NATO nations we should absolutely continue to help Ukraine defend itself. But its going beyond that now - we are actively helping Ukraine to go on the attack and retaliate. There is a difference.

I respectfully disagree. In my mind (which is a dark and twisted world) retaliation would be Ukraine bombing civilians, schools, hospitals etc across the whole of Russia (as well as ethnic cleansing and the like). They are striking military targets, to reduce the damage that Russia are doing to civilians inside Ukraine.

EDIT - I see you've already replied to GV who made the same point as me

 

[nicko31]

06:09 AM 1 USD = 101.489 Rub.
08:30 AM 1 USD = 102.383 Rub.

1 RUB to USD - Russian Rubles to US Dollars Exchange Rate

Get the latest 1 Russian Ruble to US Dollar rate for FREE with the original Universal Currency Converter. Set rate alerts for to and learn more about Russian Rubles and US Dollars from XE - the Currency Authority.

www.xe.com

RUB down 41% in the past 2 years, ordinary Russians will be hurting

 

[Triggaaar]

 

[Easy 10]

I respectfully disagree. In my mind (which is a dark and twisted world) retaliation would be Ukraine bombing civilians, schools, hospitals etc across the whole of Russia (as well as ethnic cleansing and the like). They are striking military targets, to reduce the damage that Russia are doing to civilians inside Ukraine.

EDIT - I see you've already replied to GV who made the same point as me

Putin is a sociopath, who has absolutely no qualms about drafting and sending in thousands of his civilians into the meat-grinder at the battlefront. I don't think he would differentiate between British / US missiles hitting military or civiilan targets inside Russia tbh - the fact is, Russian territory is now being struck by Western missiles.

I hope you're right, and he just considers it as all part of the deal when he decided on this jolly invasion. But he embarked on it due to what he saw as an increasing NATO creep onto his doorstep. Now that NATO are in effect blowing up stuff in Russia, I am not as confident as you that he won't react.

 

[A1X]

Russia is on the verge of collapse and civil war . Putin would never use a nuclear bomb because he would be taken out by his own side before he could . The biggest worry for me is if Russia does collapse and several new nations emerge that have nuclear weapons that they might use against each other . The hatred built up over centuries will spill over .

Agreed, the prospect of a civil war in a state with a whole load of nuclear weapons swimming about with nobody likely keeping tabs on them and securing where they are fills me with more dread than anything Putin might do. And even if they don't use them on each other, there are plenty of external malevolent actors who would be more than happy to take them off their hands...

 

[Triggaaar]

Putin is a sociopath, who has absolutely no qualms about drafting and sending thousands of his civilians into the meat-grinder at the battlefront. I don't think he would differentiate between British and US missiles hitting military or civiilan targets inside Russia tbh - the fact is, Russian territory is now being struck by Western missiles.

We had the same discussion earlier - what Putin thinks (or may think), and what we think. Your post "we are actively helping Ukraine to go on the attack and retaliate" suggests that's what you think? I agree that we're helping them more than we previously were. And Putin won't like it. But I personally don't think we're doing anything wrong and I don't see it as retaliation, I think we're just giving Ukraine more tools to defend themselves.

I hope you're right, and he just considers it as all part of the deal when he decided on this jolly invasion.

I have no idea what he's going to do, but I feel that we can't allow him to take over Ukraine. I think the UK did the right thing in WW2, and it led to our country being bombed and us losing something approaching a million people (might be well out there). With hindsight, do we think we should have just let Hitler get on with it and saved ourselves? Not for me Clive.

We're obviously lucky to have lived through peace, and it's an understatement to say it would be bad if we're dragged into a war with missiles raining down over the UK. But (and I appreciate I'll be in a minority here) I'd rather that, than back down and allow Russia to take over Europe one country at a time. I don't think it's worth humans existing if we can't live free.

But he embarked on it due to what he saw as an increasing NATO creep onto his doorstep.

I disagree (again). Russia wants to get rid of Ukraine. He doesn't want a successful democracy on his doorstep, particularly one full of Slavs, highlighting how crap Russians have it. I don't think it mattered if NATO had guaranteed no entry for Ukraine (which NATO should never do anyway).

Now NATO are in effect blowing up stuff in Russia, I am not as confident as you that he won't react.

I guess there are different levels of reaction. But even if he reacts strongly, I still think it's the right thing for us to do (as described above).

Have Russia made the same threats to the US and France, who have also allowed their weapons to be used in the same way?

 

[Eric the meek]

Agreed, the prospect of a civil war in a state with a whole load of nuclear weapons swimming about with nobody likely keeping tabs on them and securing where they are fills me with more dread than anything Putin might do. And even if they don't use them on each other, there are plenty of external malevolent actors who would be more than happy to take them off their hands...

I'm not so sure there would be a full-on civil war. Unrest, lawlessness, gunfights on the streets of Moscow sure, but an organised uprising? I'm not so sure. These people are fragmented and diverse across a vast continent.

The reason I say this, is that, according to Paul Warburg, the ethnic republics and oblasts have historically been kept separate, as a deliberate policy, to avoid any organised opposition to Moscow. Warburg suggests that this is the reason there are few roads or rail hubs in Siberia - apart from those that were built to exploit the natural wealth of Siberia. Many communities cannot physically get together to organise opposition or resistance.

That said, the inhabitants of the ethnic republics have never known self-determination. They may sense a power vacuum in Moscow and some may go after those who have oppressed them for centuries. The Russians.