[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

More Bavovna!

2 more ammo dumps hit. This is one of them.

 

[stoo82!]

It's a given that we can only speculate how this will all end.

I'm no historian, but I can only recall one instance in the last 150 years where Russia has backed down. In Afghanistan fighting the Muhadajine terrorists (now called Taliban?). From my recollection, they pulled out as eventually they realised is was a conflict in which they could not succeed. Probably similar to the reasons US UK et al left Afghanistan more recently.

Clearly we are in different circumstances. Ukraine is not Afghanistan and the reasons for Russia being there are not the same. But perhaps most different is Putin is not the same as the Russian leader of that Afghan conflict (forgotten who it was now, Bresniev?).

Can anyone remind us the detail of how that conflict was ended? Are there any similarities?

Ww1?

 

[essbee1]

Ww1?

WW2?

 

[raymondo]

The number of Russian dead perhaps excludes those disposed of by the mobile crematoria

Good point - probably thousands more.

 

[stoo82!]

WW2?

They didn't give up in WW2

 

[essbee1]

They didn't give up in WW2

True. But were it not for the winter intervening, they would have.

 

[Eric the meek]

I can’t remember the detail behind the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan, but I think they began to realise ( like the US) that it was a war that they weren’t going to win. I think too that the casualties became unacceptably high, leading to increasing protest from bereaved Mums and widows. Given the Russian casualties are significantly greater in Ukraine than Afghanistan, as we’ve said on here before, you would have thought Putin will find it increasingly difficult to keep a lid on the voice of the bereaved.
As far as Russia’s previous war record, they didn’t cover themselves in glory in Chechnya, though they would no doubt dismiss that as an internal dust up rather than a war.
I’ve just started to read Mark Galleotti’s “Putin’s Wars” which gives a lot of interesting insight into the Russian armed services and how it’s been allowed to decay over the past 30 years. I think we’d all like to see the back of Putin but we ought to be concerned that it doesn’t then turn into a lawless country where there’s no control over its military arsenal.

I absolutely take your last point. The possible descent into anarchy following a power vacuum in Moscow, with regional warlords getting hold of loose nukes, was discussed by several Youtubers in 2022. Not something any western government would be aiming for.

Jonathan Fink of the Silicon Curtain channel, maintains that Russia has to lose big. He says Russia - and Russians - need to know, see and feel the effects of Russism. I remember a powerful video from the 1990s by the former leader of Chechnya, who said that Russism won't stop. He was right. It didn't. Two years after the video, Russia assassinated him.

The chance of anarchy is a concern, but Russia is not exactly a lawful country as it is, and it threatens world peace. Our main concern should be that it is rendered unable to invade and flatten any other countries that its leader decides should not exist.

 

[raymondo]

More Bavovna!

2 more ammo dumps hit. This is one of them.

That's another big one . I guess Ukraine has figured out there is little air defense on that drone highway to the ammo dumps

 

[crookie]

The number of Russian dead perhaps excludes those disposed of by the mobile crematoria

Yes agreed, and if they are only listed as missing, not dead, no compensation needs to be paid to the families

 

[Triggaaar]

Yes agreed, and if they are only listed as missing, not dead, no compensation needs to be paid to the families

I wouldn't trust them to make payments anyway. Anyone complaining would just get locked up, sent to war, disposed of.

 

[raymondo]

I wouldn't trust them to make payments anyway. Anyone complaining would just get locked up, sent to war, disposed of.

Indeed.
Ref the fact that Russians can now be sent to the front if they have just been accused of a crime...they no longer need to be found guilty.

And STILL their population is 'happy'.

 

[Eric the meek]

Indeed.
Ref the fact that Russians can now be sent to the front if they have just been accused of a crime...they no longer need to be found guilty.

And STILL their population is 'happy'.

I know I've said this before, but how do you get inside the heads of people who have never known democracy?
People who have been born, lived their whole lives, and died under oppression? And their parents.

(Stop me if you think I'm going round in circles, repeating myself from months or years ago).

 

[Eric the meek]

100 drones. I combined target.

Obviously the target was more combustible than many targets, but I note that Toropets is roughly equidistant from Ukraine, as Moscow. Just saying.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...-why-ukraine-just-blew-it-up-with-100-drones/

 

[raymondo]

I know I've said this before, but how do you get inside the heads of people who have never known democracy?
People who have been born, lived their whole lives, and died under oppression? And their parents.

(Stop me if you think I'm going round in circles, repeating myself from months or years ago).

It's fine...my thoughts and frustrations also go in constant circles!
Russia's withdrawal from Afghanistan was partly (maybe not much?) pressured by wives and mothers of the casualties.
Given the far higher numbers of Russian casualties in this war, it suggests Russia has a FAR stronger grip on the population than before (media, arrests, crackdowns, influencers, mobilisation threat...)

 

[Eric the meek]

It's fine...my thoughts and frustrations also go in constant circles!
Russia's withdrawal from Afghanistan was partly (maybe not much?) pressured by wives and mothers of the casualties.
Given the far higher numbers of Russian casualties in this war, it suggests Russia has a FAR stronger grip on the population than before (media, arrests, crackdowns, influencers, mobilisation threat...)

That's a good point.

Putin has learned from the experience from Afghanistan (extra oppression required for awkward wives and mothers), to such an extent that he now organises fake groups of soldiers wives and mothers to soak up new wives and mothers in search of a home.

I wonder what he does with all the injured soldiers? Perhaps he locks them away somewhere, far out of sight.

 

[Sirnormangall]

I know I've said this before, but how do you get inside the heads of people who have never known democracy?
People who have been born, lived their whole lives, and died under oppression? And their parents.

(Stop me if you think I'm going round in circles, repeating myself from months or years ago).

That’s a difficult challenge. You quoted Jonathan Fink in an earlier post ie people having to see it and feel it before believing it. The increasing casualties and stories from the front line can’t be kept quiet indefinitely even if they try to keep conscription away from the main population centres. Attacks on Russian soil will also become more widely know. But will it be enough to motivate the ordinary citizen to change their views and do anything? I hope so but doubt it.

 

[raymondo]

That's a good point.

Putin has learned from the experience from Afghanistan (extra oppression required for awkward wives and mothers), to such an extent that he now organises fake groups of soldiers wives and mothers to soak up new wives and mothers in search of a home.

I wonder what he does with all the injured soldiers? Perhaps he locks them away somewhere, far out of sight.

Ah yes...I'd forgotten about the fake groups of enthusiastic wives and mothers encouraging new volunteers

 

[raymondo]

That’s a difficult challenge. You quoted Jonathan Fink in an earlier post ie people having to see it and feel it before believing it. The increasing casualties and stories from the front line can’t be kept quiet indefinitely even if they try to keep conscription away from the main population centres. Attacks on Russian soil will also become more widely know. But will it be enough to motivate the ordinary citizen to change their views and do anything? I hope so but doubt it.

I also doubt it .
For me, if internal pressure is to reach Putin's door, it will come from the 'elites' whose comfortable jet-setting lives and bank accounts have become restricted.
In fact, they may offer an off-ramp to Putin one day ... if they get enough on their side.

 

[Triggaaar]

I also doubt it .
For me, if internal pressure is to reach Putin's door, it will come from the 'elites' whose comfortable jet-setting lives and bank accounts have become restricted.
In fact, they may offer an off-ramp to Putin one day ... if they get enough on their side.

The problem the elites have is that they can't complain. If they moan to another elite they don't know they won't be grassed up and dead in a week. And the rich elites aren't usually the ones who'd try and kill the leader to take power.

No one can complain to Putin, they need to either shut up, or remove him. So it would take someone who decides they'd be in a better position if they removed him.

 

[Eric the meek]

That’s a difficult challenge. You quoted Jonathan Fink in an earlier post ie people having to see it and feel it before believing it. The increasing casualties and stories from the front line can’t be kept quiet indefinitely even if they try to keep conscription away from the main population centres. Attacks on Russian soil will also become more widely know. But will it be enough to motivate the ordinary citizen to change their views and do anything? I hope so but doubt it.

I doubt it as well.

It may have been Jonathan Fink (I'm not sure) who also said that change needs to come from Moscow, where the elite ethnic Russians live. We can and do celebrate minor uprisings in the regions, but they've all been squashed. They are fragmented, disparate, not unified, areas of low population, and mostly non-Russian.

So if there is to be meaningful unrest, it has to develop in Moscow. The seat of government, propaganda, control, oppression, the centre of exploitation of the rest of the federation are all in Moscow.

100 drones. 1 target.