[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Seen some other reports saying the russians set fire to car tires inside the cooling tower??

There are no words.

 

[raymondo]

One of the fellas I follow on X is a former US commander called David, aka Secret Squirrel @secretsqrl123 hes called so much tactically right. You may enjoy his spaces stuff. Trent Telenko is often on there too.

x.com

x.com

Yes, Secret Squirrel is very good, I dip in and out.

 

[raymondo]

@raymondo, have you seen this? Are you OK?

Evening, yes, thanks for asking. My step son's various telegram feeds suggest it is the 'car tires burning ' that is most likely.
No panic reported from our friends and family in Zap.

 

[raymondo]

A stray thought occurs to me, probably I'm later than many in this conclusion:

Putin detests most of the Russian population almost as much as he detests Ukrainians. He detests the poor, the ethic minorities, anyone who has little power over their lives.
He is HAPPY for them to die as cannon fodder, sees it as a side benefit, tidying up mother Russia.
He might get a shock if their numbers get too low...or if they get organized.

 

[GT49er]

A stray thought occurs to me, probably I'm later than many in this conclusion:

Putin detests most of the Russian population almost as much as he detests Ukrainians. He detests the poor, the ethic minorities, anyone who has little power over their lives.
He is HAPPY for them to die as cannon fodder, sees it as a side benefit, tidying up mother Russia.
He might get a shock if their numbers get too low...or if they get organized.

Well, it did cause a bit of a problem for Nicholas II.

 

[hampshirebrightonboy]

Yes it could be some or all of our speculations in the above:
- stay one step ahead
- keep Russia guessing the next step
- attack Russian troops as they move to Kursk
- attack areas where Russia reduced troops (Kharkhiv? Kherson?)
- tactical successes in Kursk: control the gas hub embarrass Putin and his elite morale boost for Ukraine prove to allies that harm can be inflicted on Russia burst the Russian 'superiority'bubble. Maybe attack and destroy other targets (rail hubs? Bearing factory as per @sparkie )
- reduce Russian focus on other targets, Kerch etc...

Mainly a summary for myself to keep a handle on what's going on!

Couple of other things to consider.

This time of year there is very heavy demand on fuel as we are getting close to harvesting.
The Russians put a ban on the export of diesel last year and will be much more tricky this year.
With the Ukrainians targetting fuel dumps and refineries they will really be struggling and prior to the Kursk invasion there must have been some difficult conversations on how to balance the war vs the harvest.
Now suddenly they've got to move tens of thousands of men and equipment hundreds of miles.

Also, a lot of Russian soldiers will have serious grievences but no opportunty to escape in Ukraine.
But now with a hastily and unplanned journey back in Russia I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of disertions - especially if the first few convoys get destroyed by Himars.

 

[Eric the meek]

'Mr Zelensky also said there was no detected radiation spike or danger of a nuclear leak - but accused Russia of purposefully starting the fire in an attempt to "blackmail" Kyiv.'

Ukraine and Russia trade blame over fire at nuclear plant

Both sides say there has been no detected radiation spike at the occupied Zaporizhzhia plant.

www.bbc.co.uk

So we can now add threat of nuclear 'accident' (and blame it on Ukraine) to the list of war crimes committed by Russia.

This is in addition to the approximate 160 times the Kremlin has tried an explicit nuclear threat. If you google 'how many times has Russia threatened nuclear war', you will find it really is over 160, and this is just this year.

 

[raymondo]

Couple of other things to consider.

This time of year there is very heavy demand on fuel as we are getting close to harvesting.
The Russians put a ban on the export of diesel last year and will be much more tricky this year.
With the Ukrainians targetting fuel dumps and refineries they will really be struggling and prior to the Kursk invasion there must have been some difficult conversations on how to balance the war vs the harvest.
Now suddenly they've got to move tens of thousands of men and equipment hundreds of miles.

Also, a lot of Russian soldiers will have serious grievences but no opportunty to escape in Ukraine.
But now with a hastily and unplanned journey back in Russia I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of disertions - especially if the first few convoys get destroyed by Himars.

Yes, good points.
Also, as was mentioned somewhere above, yesterday, maybe it's a major attempt to grab Russian land, and the initiative, before the US election.

 

[Eric the meek]

UAV attack and Russian air defence active, at an airfield 30km to the NE of Moscow.

 

[marlowe]

Well, it's all very encouraging.

But where is it going? What is the plan? What happens when Russia gets its act together and piles into Kursk, if it isn't already doing so?

In the space of 5 days, Ukraine is now driving events. Defence is becoming offence. Putin has to respond to the invasion, otherwise he will look weak, and invite further offensives by Ukraine. Politically, he has to respond big time, or risk being deposed and killed. Tellingly, Putin he has already said it won't be easy or quick to chase the Ukrainians away. He is already managing expectations. Of course, if he responds, as he will, he will weaken somewhere else along the front line.

But Russia cannot defend all its borders. When/if Russia reinforces its defences in Kursk, will Ukraine dig in and stay to be shelled, or will it withdraw? Alternatively, will it go elsewhere and torment Russia in another part of its poorly-defended western borders?

As far as the bigger plan goes, we have some people speculating in the tweeted replies that Moscow is the ultimate goal. It probably is. Why wouldn't it be? But that talk is for the future. Right now, Russia is reinforcing the Kerch bridge with multiple barges. Russia is on the back foot.

It may be that history may tell us what the future holds. Russia has been invaded many times. It is vulnerable. Now the country it invaded two and a half years ago, is returning the compliment. Russia's vastness is its weakness. It cannot defend it all.

It would be the ultimate irony if at the end of this war Russia became annexed as part of Ukraine. Well, Putin would have achieved part of his goal, just not in the way he had hoped

 

[Eric the meek]

It would be the ultimate irony if at the end of this war Russia became annexed as part of Ukraine. Well, Putin would have achieved part of his goal, just not in the way he had hoped

This is the kind of lateral thinking that we need on this thread.

 

[Braggfan]

I would imagine the incursion has been done with one eye on the US elections. If Ukraine can hold some Russian territory before the bad weather arrives, it will make it hard to dislodge them until the new year. If Trump wins the election, he's said he could end the war in Ukraine quickly. Presumably that would be him telling Ukraine to give up the territory Russia has taken or the US will remove its aid. That situation becomes harder to enforce on the Ukraine if they say, "well in that case we're not giving up the territory we've taken". Russia can't afford to let Ukraine keep any territory, that would be far too humiliating for them. So I think this incursion might intended to gain a bargaining chip for Ukraine, in case Trump forces them into a situation.

 

[raymondo]

I would imagine the incursion has been done with one eye on the US elections. If Ukraine can hold some Russian territory before the bad weather arrives, it will make it hard to dislodge them until the new year. If Trump wins the election, he's said he could end the war in Ukraine quickly. Presumably that would be him telling Ukraine to give up the territory Russia has taken or the US will remove its aid. That situation becomes harder to enforce on the Ukraine if they say, "well in that case we're not giving up the territory we've taken". Russia can't afford to let Ukraine keep any territory, that would be far too humiliating for them. So I think this incursion might intended to gain a bargaining chip for Ukraine, in case Trump forces them into a situation.

And if Trump does that, I do hope Ukraine and some/all European countries tell him to f*CK off.
Europe really does need to quickly decide if they're prepared to be pushed around at Trump's whim, or if they will go it alone if needed. (Hope Trump doesn't get in of course).

 

[raymondo]

Ukraine already said they have no intention of holding onto, or annexing territory in the long term and that they will abide by the Geneva convention and rules of war, which does entitle them to go into Russia as self defence against the aggressor.

Mariupol is my Mrs home city, my mother in law who was here for over 2 years has gone back, and the devastation is horrific, and yes there are a lot of people arriving from regions and satellites like Tajikistan trying to profit and steal. Putin is definitly trying to Russify the city as part of his ethnic cleansing attempts. Mariupol is however a major port city and more importantly would cut the land bridge to Crimea. The port though however is pretty useless with the Crimea Bridge standing and blocking exit from the Azov sea to the Black sea. If the Bridge gets taken down, it would make more sense.

I dont personally believe Ukraine will go for Mariupol militarily, the best chance it has of returning is if Russia/Putinism more widely implodes and he is toppled.

Ukraine doesnt actually need to cut the land bridge anyway, just have fire control over the road and rail.

I still believe it will be easier to isolate and cut off Crimea, especially after vanquishing the black sea fleet away, and if Ukraine could take Crimea, the Jewell in Putins imperial expansionist crown, the rest may fall pretty quickly after?

Hi @peterward that was interesting thank you.
A personal question if that's ok: what route did your mother in law take back to Mariupol? (If you'd rather not say...no problem,).
And is she able to travel back to the UK if she wants?
Many thanks!

 

[raymondo]

Ab update from Tendar - interesting reply a page down from Jof Dam.

 

[Eric the meek]

The evolution of Russian propagandists.

 

[raymondo]

The evolution of Russian propagandists.

A very enjoyable watch

 

[Eric the meek]

Ab update from Tendar - interesting reply a page down from Jof Dam.

Not sure if it has been mentioned, but the more households who are evacuated, either by the authorities, or by 'voluntary evacuation' where the regional government has failed to do it, the more households travel to other regions to live with friends and family, and spread the word of the invasion by Ukraine.

 

[raymondo]

Not sure if it has been mentioned, but the more households who are evacuated, either by the authorities, or by 'voluntary evacuation' where the regional government has failed to do it, the more households travel to other regions to live with friends and family, and spread the word of the invasion by Ukraine.

Yes, the truth of it will spread even if the state TV plays it down. They'll still all support their war though, maybe more so - they are in very deep.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes, the truth of it will spread even if the state TV plays it down. They'll still all support their war though, maybe more so - they are in very deep.

As the news spreads among the population, I would expect the propaganda to more closely follow the news, to maintain the appearance of reality.

Blame avoidance will become a theme (Belousov has already blamed the Americans for the 'provocation').

Currently, pro-Ukraine accounts say Ukraine is making fast progress backed up by many young Russian conscripts being taken as POWs, which suggests that they can't retreat fast enough.

I'm not expecting this footage to be shown on Russian TV.