[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

This has been the aim of the economic sanctions for the last two years and it is finally starting to bear fruit as all of Putin’s side hustles to avoid it are starting to run dry

They've been pretty effective at circumveting the wests sanctions and still getting the stuff they need. The freezing of 400B by EU has hit them hard. I know its been mentioned here before, but the Ukrainian policy of hitting Russian oil refineries has been brilliantly effective and done more to degrade Moscows coffers than many of our sanctions.

Doesnt mean Russia getting any less barrels of raw crude out of the ground, but it does mean theyve lost a lot of the capacity to refine it themselves into higher grade higher price export fuels like petrol, diesel, kerosene etc. Meaning Russia is now having to export more raw crude at massively deflated prices over what that barrel couldve sold for if they couldve refined it, plus, they dont have enough refined fuels for their war efforts and joe public, so theyre having to export knock down price raw crude and then reimport refined fuels at market prices.

forecourt petrol prices are fixed and subsidised, so now the Russia governements gap between their import cost versus subsidised public pump price is making every litre hugely more pricey for the government.

Its one of the single most effective sanctions so far imho, and long may it continue and Ukraine degrade Russian refining capacity.

 

[crookie]

No wonder Russia wants to 'freeze' this 'senseless war'.

It's running out of money,

Russia weighs biggest tax shake-up in almost 25 years as Putin scrambles to finance Ukraine war

As the war in Ukraine drains the Kremlin's coffers, the government is scrambling to find new ways to finance it. After nearly three decades with most Russians paying just 13% in taxes, Vladimir Putin is eyeing a radical shake-up.

news.sky.com

And with 1000 taxpayers dying every day this won't help rebuild the state finances

 

[raymondo]

No wonder Russia wants to 'freeze' this 'senseless war'.

It's running out of money,

Russia weighs biggest tax shake-up in almost 25 years as Putin scrambles to finance Ukraine war

As the war in Ukraine drains the Kremlin's coffers, the government is scrambling to find new ways to finance it. After nearly three decades with most Russians paying just 13% in taxes, Vladimir Putin is eyeing a radical shake-up.

news.sky.com

I predict their Parliament will approve the tax changes...just a hunch

 

[raymondo]

And with 1000 taxpayers dying every day this won't help rebuild the state finances

On reflection, most of those guys possibly didn't pay tax: prisoners, very poor ethnic minorities from the provinces, mercenaries...

 

[Eric the meek]

And with 1000 taxpayers dying every day this won't help rebuild the state finances

Neither will being on a war economy footing, spending taxpayers' money on single-use weapons.

 

[Sirnormangall]

They've been pretty effective at circumveting the wests sanctions and still getting the stuff they need. The freezing of 400B by EU has hit them hard. I know its been mentioned here before, but the Ukrainian policy of hitting Russian oil refineries has been brilliantly effective and done more to degrade Moscows coffers than many of our sanctions.

Doesnt mean Russia getting any less barrels of raw crude out of the ground, but it does mean theyve lost a lot of the capacity to refine it themselves into higher grade higher price export fuels like petrol, diesel, kerosene etc. Meaning Russia is now having to export more raw crude at massively deflated prices over what that barrel couldve sold for if they couldve refined it, plus, they dont have enough refined fuels for their war efforts and joe public, so theyre having to export knock down price raw crude and then reimport refined fuels at market prices.

forecourt petrol prices are fixed and subsidised, so now the Russia governements gap between their import cost versus subsidised public pump price is making every litre hugely more pricey for the government.

Its one of the single most effective sanctions so far imho, and long may it continue and Ukraine degrade Russian refining capacity.

The announcement of tax rises will be a difficult message to manage. The Kremlin’s PR machine is clever and many citizens will no doubt support the move, but many won’t and, however it’s dressed up, it’s another sign to the Russian population that the special military operation isn’t going as planned.

 

[crookie]

Hope those dress uniforms are in good storage as I can't see any victory parades through Kyiv anytime soon

 

[Eric the meek]

The announcement of tax rises will be a difficult message to manage. The Kremlin’s PR machine is clever and many citizens will no doubt support the move, but many won’t and, however it’s dressed up, it’s another sign to the Russian population that the special military operation isn’t going as planned.

Absolutely.

What Putin needed to do, was get the sums right. In other words, not have to try to sell another tax rise in a year's time.
We will see if he got it right. But there is no doubt, with reshuffles, calls for a 'freeze' of the war, and now this, Putin is under pressure.

It's interesting what a few modern western precision weapons - or just the threat of them - will elicit.

 

[essbee1]

They've been pretty effective at circumveting the wests sanctions and still getting the stuff they need. The freezing of 400B by EU has hit them hard. I know its been mentioned here before, but the Ukrainian policy of hitting Russian oil refineries has been brilliantly effective and done more to degrade Moscows coffers than many of our sanctions.

Doesnt mean Russia getting any less barrels of raw crude out of the ground, but it does mean theyve lost a lot of the capacity to refine it themselves into higher grade higher price export fuels like petrol, diesel, kerosene etc. Meaning Russia is now having to export more raw crude at massively deflated prices over what that barrel couldve sold for if they couldve refined it, plus, they dont have enough refined fuels for their war efforts and joe public, so theyre having to export knock down price raw crude and then reimport refined fuels at market prices.

forecourt petrol prices are fixed and subsidised, so now the Russia governements gap between their import cost versus subsidised public pump price is making every litre hugely more pricey for the government.

Its one of the single most effective sanctions so far imho, and long may it continue and Ukraine degrade Russian refining capacity.

Maybe Putin should read an economic rundown of the last year or so of WW2 and take serious notice. An economy and
workforce on its knees. No mechanical parts to be found - using wood in place of aluminium. Production being outstripped 5/1 by the Allies.
Oh, and a command structure so stupid/stubborn that it's a wonder they could tie their own shoelaces.

 

[Eric the meek]

What caused this then? This is a long way from Ukraine.

 

[Eric the meek]

Same question for this forest fire in Buryatia, east of Lake Baykal, a huge distance from Ukraine. What caused it?

Maybe it really was an accident. A natural occurrence, a symptom of global warming perhaps. But if I were a local warlord/agitator, resentful of a century of plundering by Moscow, I would be sitting up and taking notice.

 

[raymondo]

What caused this then? This is a long way from Ukraine.

I guess we don't know the stats of infrastructure accidents pre the invasion. They are probably much higher now given reduced maintenance.

But, yes, sabotage by local partisans? ...

 

[raymondo]

Same question for this forest fire in Buryatia, east of Lake Baykal, a huge distance from Ukraine. What caused it?

Maybe it really was an accident. A natural occurrence, a symptom of global warming perhaps. But if I were a local warlord/agitator, resentful of a century of plundering by Moscow, I would be sitting up and taking notice.

Everything looking cool and normal... until the tracks warp!

 

[A1X]

Same question for this forest fire in Buryatia, east of Lake Baykal, a huge distance from Ukraine. What caused it?

Maybe it really was an accident. A natural occurrence, a symptom of global warming perhaps. But if I were a local warlord/agitator, resentful of a century of plundering by Moscow, I would be sitting up and taking notice.

Of more interest, why are they still having to run trains through a forest fire? Because they’re struggling to get goods about by road / air because of fuel shortages perhaps?

 

[Eric the meek]

Of more interest, why are they still having to run trains through a forest fire? Because they’re struggling to get goods about by road / air because of fuel shortages perhaps?

VERY good observation.

If there are fuel shortages, where will they first be apparent? In the furthest regions, no? How will they get the fuel there in the first place?

Back in the summer of 2022, not that long after the invasion had begun, I was captivated by a long tweet (he put a lot of work into it) from Kamil Galeev, who painted a picture of a slow disintegration of the Russian Federation. He predicted it would happen due to a power vacuum in Moscow, and a breakdown in infrastructure, in particular the inability of airlines to keep planes in the air. Planes are the only way many can get around the vast distances of the RF. The steady decline in the Russian aviation industry has been covered before on here. Planes are being bastardised for spare parts, so old, used parts off old, used planes are being fitted onto the remaining planes that can still fly. The industry is characterised by poor maintenance, corners cut, the expertise of Boeing and Airbus staff long gone, no software updates, and those planes are flying across the vast, empty expanse of Siberia...

 

[A1X]

VERY good observation.

If there are fuel shortages, where will they first be apparent? In the furthest regions, no? How will they get the fuel there in the first place?

It’s worth noting that it’s an electrified line, which will (presumably, as in most countries) be wired up to their equivalent of the national grid. That’s incredibly lower in fuel usage than a diesel train would be, which in turn is less than road / air.

 

[Eric the meek]

'Signs are that the heavy discounts on Russian oil are starting to take a toll.' - 31 Jan, 2023. Note the date.

This is from the article below giving the breakeven oil price for Russia in 2023. $114 a barrel. Before the invasion, it was $64.47 a barrel.

These figures obviously didn't take into account Ukrainian drones subsequently carving a path through Russia's oil refineries and storage depots.

Todays's oil price? WTI - $77.04, and Brent crude $81.32



Here's the article (dated 31 Jan 2023) if interested:

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/013123-russias-economic-gap-with-key-opec-allies-widens-adding-to-policy-debate

 

[Binney on acid]

I see that Daniil Medvedev has been knocked out of the French open. How in god's name can a Russian be allowed to participate in a major international sporting event ?

 

[schmunk]

I see that Daniil Medvedev has been knocked out of the French open. How in god's name can a Russian be allowed to participate in a major sporting event ?

Why in dog's name shouldn't he?

 

[essbee1]

Why in dog's name shouldn't he?

I would throw every Russian and Belarussian sports person out of every world sports competition if I had the power. But the
sports bodies feel it's unfair to mix sport with politics. But let's forget about the Ukrainian and Russian athletes (in fairness) killed in action
in this ridiculous war shall we.