[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

I wonder if Budanov is playing mind games?

That's part of the beauty of it isn't it - either way it'll worry the Russians.

 

[raymondo]

I'll start with your last question. Could we imagine Mongolia and/or China helping them unite against Moscow? No, I don't think so. But I can absolutely see China using the (veiled) threat of that as leverage. China has invited Putin for talks on the war in May. I don't know what the agenda will be, but I can guess - a repeated call to stop the conflict, and maybe another offer to broker a peace deal. If you believe Peter Zeihan's demographics, China has its own problems and is looking longingly at Lake Baikal as a source of fresh water. So a long shot may be that there will be an offer of a deal on the table. Water for their continuing support? With the unsaid and unwritten alternative clear in Putin's mind? Pure speculation of course.

I can't see many ethnic groups uniting, precisely because they are so disparate, with little or no organised dissent, and little commonality - apart from having a common deeply unpopular ruling political class, based in Moscow. So the key to any decisive ethnic unrest, if it were to happen, may not lie in unity, but in Moscow.

If any hope exists, it may exist in the chance of Moscow's command and control relaxing, or being forced to relax, its iron grip on the republics. It is possible this process could begin if/when Moscow's income streams run dry and the pay cheques for the enforcers begin to bounce. Imagine a slow, disorganised chaotic withdrawal of the state machine. Silence where propaganda once was, the local FSB, Rosvgardia and police going incommunicado and an absence of Moscow based government representatives making speeches to answer important questions.

Hmmm yes, so multiple little uprisings in regions far flung from Moscow ... could happen, maybe in a year or so.

 

[A1X]

And may I be the first to offer my congratulations to Vladimir Putin on securing a 99.7% vote in favour of Siberia remaining in Russia at next year’s referendum

 

[Eric the meek]

That's part of the beauty of it isn't it - either way it'll worry the Russians.

I remember some retired general saying 'you can only blow the bridge up once'. But you can announce its destruction any number of times.

 

[raymondo]

I remember some retired general saying 'you can only blow the bridge up once'. But you can announce its destruction any number of times.

And it could of course be blown up as many times as needed

 

[Eric the meek]

And it could of course be blown up as many times as needed

True. Blowing it up could become a symbol of Ukrainian national identity - an annual celebration, a bit like the Moscow victory day parade, but more enjoyable and based on real events.

For added poignancy, it could even be held on the same day.

 

[GT49er]

True. Blowing it up could become a symbol of Ukrainian national identity - an annual celebration, a bit like the Moscow victory day parade, but more enjoyable and based on real events.

For added poignancy, it could even be held on the same day.

It's long enough. They could blow up a new span every year, on Crimea Independence Day. With fireworks and a band!

 

[Eric the meek]

Jet propelled drones seen over Belgorod, Russia.

It has been suggested they are British, or modified versions of British drones.

 

[raymondo]

Jet propelled drones seen over Belgorod, Russia.

It has been suggested they are British, or modified versions of British drones.

Interesting details in the thread therein

 

[essbee1]

Interesting details in the thread therein

Get into the bastards.

 

[raymondo]

No big surprises here, but interesting nonetheless.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/05/trump-ukraine-secret-plan/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3d531d3%2F6612c332c98fd32082cd2704%2F6611534db906a33aae152ba9%2F7%2F49%2F6612c332c98fd32082cd2704

 

[Eric the meek]

No big surprises here, but interesting nonetheless.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...3aae152ba9/7/49/6612c332c98fd32082cd2704[/URL

It's odd. It reads almost as if the offer of the deal has come direct from Putin.

If Trump is so confident that he could end the war within 24 hours when he is elected, why doesn't he do it now? Because he would fail. To be successful, a deal doesn't need Trump. It needs both parties at war to accept the terms of the deal and trust each other's word. Which of course, is a non-starter in this case.

 

[raymondo]

It's odd. It reads almost as if the offer of the deal has come direct from Putin.

If Trump is so confident that he could end the war within 24 hours when he is elected, why doesn't he do it now? Because he would fail. To be successful, a deal doesn't need Trump. It needs both parties at war to accept the terms of the deal and trust each other's word. Which of course, is a non-starter in this case.

Yes it's partly odd.
I'm sure Ukraine would refuse such a deal, and I just hope that much of Europe would carry on supporting Ukraine rather than hanging on to US coat tails.

We don't know what Trump's private words would be, but probably something like (to Zelenskiy) 'cede Donbas and Crimea or US support stops today '.
To Putin...'you've got what you wanted, for now, please don't invade again for a couple of years, and don't publish that video you have of me '.

 

[raymondo]

And Trump's main fixation seems to be China, so we must keep that in mind. His main concern may be to ensure China and Russia don't make a strong alliance.

 

[peterward]

Really interating interview by German paper with one of the chief economists of the Russian economy who resigned as war broke out.

About state of Russian economy, threats to it and cash runway....

May need translate button.

Interview with Former Russian Central Bank Advisor: "It's Time To Slowly Bleed Russia's Economy Dry"

When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, Alexandra Prokopenko quit her job at the Russian Central Bank. In an interview, she explains why the Russian president's economic policy is so successful. And what the West could do that would really harm the Kremlin.

www.spiegel.de

 

[raymondo]

Really interating interview by German paper with one of the chief economists of the Russian economy who resigned as war broke out.

About state of Russian economy, threats to it and cash runway....

May need translate button.

Interview with Former Russian Central Bank Advisor: "It's Time To Slowly Bleed Russia's Economy Dry"

When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, Alexandra Prokopenko quit her job at the Russian Central Bank. In an interview, she explains why the Russian president's economic policy is so successful. And what the West could do that would really harm the Kremlin.

www.spiegel.de

Very interesting read, thank you

 

[crookie]

MSN

Another discarded cigarette ?

 

[Eric the meek]

Russia is seeking gasoline from Kazakhstan in case of shortages:

 

[raymondo]

Russia is seeking gasoline from Kazakhstan in case of shortages:

I hope it's expensive.

 

[raymondo]

MSN

Another discarded cigarette ?

Good news