[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Bodian]

Wow - pretty impressive result. 88%. They must love him.

 

[jcdenton08]

In unrelated news, 12% of the electorate turned up dead this evening dead in a freak mass suicide, having fired two bullets apiece in the back of their own heads within a shallow grave outside of Moscow.

 

[vegster]

Hmmm I wonder?

Ukraine really fires a drone into Transnistria for the first time destroying a seperatist MIL helicopter?

Or Russia in a false flag, fires drone at its own MIL, blames Ukraine and uses that as a pretext to go into Transnistria to "protect" the Russian speakers and military equipment?

They've been laying ground to go into Transnistria for couple of months, including the puppet state sending a request to Putin to protect them (no doubt initiated by Putin).

All part of the charade?

Twitter talk is that this was an old out of service Helicopter but, covered by two video cameras which " luckily " captured the moment of destruction.

Transnistria could well become a flash point soon, it has a huge arms and shell dump which Russia and Ukraine both covet. The problem is, its heavily guarded and suspected to be booby trapped by the pro Russian militia based there. The standard cold War playbook will be to increase tension by numerous acts of sabotage until being " invited " in to protect the population and restrore order. Its a timeless set up that the Soviets and Russians have used for decades without a hint of shame.

 

[raymondo]

Hmmm I wonder?

Ukraine really fires a drone into Transnistria for the first time destroying a seperatist MIL helicopter?

Or Russia in a false flag, fires drone at its own MIL, blames Ukraine and uses that as a pretext to go into Transnistria to "protect" the Russian speakers and military equipment?

They've been laying ground to go into Transnistria for couple of months, including the puppet state sending a request to Putin to protect them (no doubt initiated by Putin).

All part of the charade?

False flag is more likely... perfectly positioned camera etc

 

[Swegulls]

I wonder how it feels to "win" when everyone, including himself, know it's a cheat?

 

[A1X]

I wonder how it feels to "win" when everyone, including himself, know it's a cheat?

Think you’d be better off asking that on the Man City forum

 

[Wrong-Direction]

In unrelated news, 12% of the electorate turned up dead this evening dead in a freak mass suicide, having fired two bullets apiece in the back of their own heads within a shallow grave outside of Moscow.

?

 

[Triggaaar]

Wow - pretty impressive result. 88%. They must love him.

He's more popular in Ukraine where he won 98% of the vote

 

[peterward]

Twitter talk is that this was an old out of service Helicopter but, covered by two video cameras which " luckily " captured the moment of destruction.

Transnistria could well become a flash point soon, it has a huge arms and shell dump which Russia and Ukraine both covet. The problem is, its heavily guarded and suspected to be booby trapped by the pro Russian militia based there. The standard cold War playbook will be to increase tension by numerous acts of sabotage until being " invited " in to protect the population and restrore order. Its a timeless set up that the Soviets and Russians have used for decades without a hint of shame.

 

[raymondo]

A very good analysis from him. He should be hired by BBC Fact Checker.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm disappointed that the attack wasn't real. But the Ukrainians have got bigger fish to fry than clapped out helicopters. Back to oil refineries then....

(I don't usually make predictions, but the election will embolden Putin. Keep an eye out for his next strategic mistake).

 

[beorhthelm]

cant see Transnistria as anything more than sideshow. it has no port, Russia hasn't got the air assets to deploy around a hostile Ukraine. may be they drum up a reason for the seperatist there to attempt some western front in Ukraine, diverting resources and attention.

 

[fly high]

I see no drone, planted explosive.

 

[Eric the meek]

cant see Transnistria as anything more than sideshow. it has no port, Russia hasn't got the air assets to deploy around a hostile Ukraine. may be they drum up a reason for the seperatist there to attempt some western front in Ukraine, diverting resources and attention.

I wouldn't be in a rush to downsize Transnistria to being a sideshow. There's a reason why Russia covets Transnistria.

While it hasn't got a port, Odesa isn't a million miles away. Transnistria could be the bridgehead Russia needs to take Odesa, control the whole of the Ukraine coast, snuff out the threat of Ukrainian maritime drones and thus reassert Russia's Black Sea capabilities. It could thus surround Ukraine on three sides and punch a hole in Ukraine's export economy.

Suddenly, it isn't a sideshow.

 

[peterward]

I'm disappointed that the attack wasn't real. But the Ukrainians have got bigger fish to fry than clapped out helicopters. Back to oil refineries then....

(I don't usually make predictions, but the election will embolden Putin. Keep an eye out for his next strategic mistake).

He'll go for another large military draft soon imho

 

[Eric the meek]

He'll go for another large military draft soon imho

I think you are right. The numbers don't add up. After an initial draft of an announced '300,000', he has lost c400,000 troops, and has resorted to pardoning convicts and duping Indians, Nepalis, Africans/Somalis into signing up.

But will it be a draft too far for the Russian people, or even for the Kremlin elite? Will it be the strategic mistake we are all hoping for?

 

[peterward]

I think you are right. The numbers don't add up. After an initial draft of an announced '300,000', he has lost c400,000 troops, and has resorted to pardoning convicts and duping Indians, Nepalis, Africans/Somalis into signing up.

But will it be a draft too far for the Russian people, or even for the Kremlin elite? Will it be the strategic mistake we are all hoping for?

Its been much mooted he'd do it after his sham election. But Ukraine also desperately needs more manpower and another draft......

I assumed? as it will be unpopular, that maybe Zelensky was waiting for Putin to do it first?, then he can use that event as cover/reasoning to also do it.

Could of course be wrong, but Ukraine needs more men/women too

 

[Eric the meek]

Its been much mooted he'd do it after his sham election. But Ukraine also desperately needs more manpower and another draft......

I assumed? as it will be unpopular, that maybe Zelensky was waiting for Putin to do it first?, then he can use that event as cover/reasoning to also do it.

Could of course be wrong, but Ukraine needs more men/women too

Yes, Ukraine absolutely needs more manpower (not to mention ammo), but Russia does seem to need more manpower to throw in the meat grinder. I'm not a military strategist, but I read somewhere that you need something like double the number of men to perform an offensive than hold a defensive line.

As an aside, I read an article about Ukrainian women being excellent at sniping. Some of them at least are already in combat.

 

[raymondo]

I think you are right. The numbers don't add up. After an initial draft of an announced '300,000', he has lost c400,000 troops, and has resorted to pardoning convicts and duping Indians, Nepalis, Africans/Somalis into signing up.

But will it be a draft too far for the Russian people, or even for the Kremlin elite? Will it be the strategic mistake we are all hoping for?

Sadly I don't think this one will be the 'draft too far '. I imagine there are still plenty of ethnic minorities in the peripheral provinces to be drafted before Moscow and St P populations come into the sights.
Maybe a few videos of skirmishes around drafting stations in the rural provinces, but nothing the propaganda machine can't handle.
But, as you say, at SOME point...

 

[raymondo]

I'm disappointed that the attack wasn't real. But the Ukrainians have got bigger fish to fry than clapped out helicopters. Back to oil refineries then....

(I don't usually make predictions, but the election will embolden Putin. Keep an eye out for his next strategic mistake).

Yeah, we have to be careful not to get happy clappy (me especially!) about every bit of Russian stuff that gets blown up ...there will continue to be false flags.

I don't think Russia's blowing up it's own oil refineries though