[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

The Royal United Services Institute predicted back in mid 2023, that as Russia grinds to a halt in the ground war, we should expect renewed activity from them on other fronts - long range missiles, propaganda and cyber warfare.

RUSI were spot on.

 

[Eric the meek]

Did you read the nyt article I posted?

Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine

The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive…

ecfr.eu

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.

www.nbcnews.com

I can dig out some more articles when I've downed tools for the day.

Two of those articles date from 2.5 months ago.

 

[Triggaaar]

The sad truth, according to most impartial commentators, is that Ukraine has essentially lost the war (they have literally run out of men of fighting age) and now it's just a question of how to make peace.

Zelensky went to Davos just a few days ago but instead of his usual appeal for weaponry, has all but conceded the defeat

WTF are you on about? It looks like you're just trying to push Russian propaganda

 

[thejackal]

Two of those articles date from 2.5 months ago.

Yes, indeed. The situation now is worse!

 

[thejackal]

WTF are you on about? It looks like you're just trying to push Russian propaganda

Oh leave it out pal.

Russian propaganda ffs :-D (see below)

 

[thejackal]

Jackal - fair enough. You have your point of view, shaped by what you read etc.
I have my own view which differs significantly. "Cold facts" is mere folly.

Likewise, fair enough.

Yeah, as you say, I'm just passing on what I have read.

Most of the points I made are factual, no matter where you source them e.g. Ukraine has run out of fit men of fighting age, the west has lost appetite for the conflict, Zelensky's generals have had to talk him into accepting that the war cannot be won, etc.

I'm no happier than you that Russia has come out on top, but I think our western bias (or wishful thinking) has maybe prevented us from seeing or accepting the reality here.

 

[Triggaaar]

Did you read the nyt article

Yes. Ukraine called for Russias withdrawal, including Crimea. The opposite of defeat

 

[Triggaaar]

Most of the points I made are factual, no matter where you source them e.g. Ukraine has run out of fit men of fighting age, the west has lost appetite for the conflict, Zelensky's generals have had to talk him into accepting that the war cannot be won, etc.

None of that is fact, it's all BS. Provide links to reliable sources to prove otherwise.

I'm no happier than you that Russia has come out on top

Fear not, they haven't.

 

[Eeyore]

WTF are you on about? It looks like you're just trying to push Russian propaganda

The propaganda here is coming from those with the scarves and hats with colours for either side.

Ukraine cannot remove Russia from it's territory.

However, with huge support from the West they can keep fighting and try to hold the lines (which hardly seem to be moving).

I've not followed news commentary bar what I see on the Beeb. This will just drag on and the biggest problem for Ukraine is how long the West will keep on burning cash.

I suspect at some stage there will be some kind of agreement. It's inevitable.

 

[Zeberdi]

Did you read the nyt article I posted?

Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine

The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive…

ecfr.eu

This is a great article, thanks (TLDR all of it but most of it)

However, you said above that Zelenksyy‘s peace plan points to him conceding defeat - I suggested above quite the contrary and these articles don’t change that pov. It is not Zelenskyy but the US and EU whose resolve has weakened.

There is a difference between what Zelenskyy wants and what the US and EU/other European Countries want as an outcome (with the exception of Poland, Finland and Lithuania) . The US and EU are (covertly) putting pressure on Ukraine to concede parts of Ukraine having for months and months only provided enough defensive military aid to hold the current frontlines. There is a BIG diference between that and Zelenskyy wanting to take back the Crimea and Donbas regions to once and for all secure Ukraine’s borders and population after years of conflict. Ukraine is not being supplied with enough military aid to win back those regions, hence the war has frozen with no one gaining ground.

It is not Ukraine that is ‘conceding defeat’ with Zelenskyy’s Peace Plan (which realistically is more a statement of intent than anything else), quite the opposite, but rather the US and EU conceding they are not prepared to supply enough military aid to Ukraine to achieve the victory Zelenskyy wants and coming up with their own versions of a ‘peace plan’ -

However, putting any kind of pressure on Ukraine to concede sovereign territory to Russia is disgraceful IMO and rewards Russia with an illegal and violent land grab against the Ukranian people. Zelenskyy’s latest tact is to try and convince western investors that there is a great investment market for them if Ukraine can win the war - presumably hoping influential global investors can lobby their respective governments to up the military support for Ukraine to repel Russian forces from the Country, including the illegally annexed Crimea.

 

[thejackal]

Yes. Ukraine called for Russias withdrawal, including Crimea. The opposite of defeat

Yeah but on what terms? The last 2 Ukrainian offensives got nowhere. They didnt gain any territory. Russia now has the Donbass & Crimea (20% of Uktrainian territory). This is an attempt by Zelensky to concede defeat and save face.

 

[essbee1]

Likewise, fair enough.

Yeah, as you say, I'm just passing on what I have read.

Most of the points I made are factual, no matter where you source them e.g. Ukraine has run out of fit men of fighting age, the west has lost appetite for the conflict, Zelensky's generals have had to talk him into accepting that the war cannot be won, etc.

I'm no happier than you that Russia has come out on top, but I think our western bias (or wishful thinking) has maybe prevented us from seeing or accepting the reality here.

The same Russia which, right now, is having its oil plants destroyed left, right and centre on a regular basis? That doesn't strike me as "coming out on top" to be honest.

 

[Triggaaar]

The propaganda here is coming from those with the scarves and hats with colours for either side.

Ukraine cannot remove Russia from it's territory.

And Russia can't remove Ukraine

 

[Triggaaar]

Yeah but on what terms? The last 2 Ukrainian offensives got nowhere. They didnt gain any territory. Russia now has the Donbass & Crimea (20% of Uktrainian territory).

And the latest Russian offensives have got nowhere. Russia has had Crimea since 2014, and large areas of the Donbass for years. Russia aren't winning, they're not progressing and their economy is suffering.

 

[thejackal]

The same Russia which, right now, is having its oil plants destroyed left, right and centre on a regular basis? That doesn't strike me as "coming out on top" to be Lonest.

Left, right and centre? Erm...

Some of you are getting a little bit triggered by the suggestion that Ukraine may not win the war.

They are not my words, it's just stuff I've read from reputable sources.

I'm suspect most of you will come round when it has all played out.

 

[fly high]

This is a great article, thanks (TLDR all of it but most of it)

However, you said above that Zelenksyy‘s peace plan points to him conceding defeat - I suggested above quite the contrary and these articles don’t change that pov. It is not Zelenskyy but the US and EU whose resolve has weakened.

There is a difference between what Zelenskyy wants and what the US and EU/other European Countries want as an outcome (with the exception of Poland, Finland and Lithuania) . The US and EU are (covertly) putting pressure on Ukraine to concede parts of Ukraine having for months and months only provided enough defensive military aid to hold the current frontlines. There is a BIG diference between that and Zelenskyy wanting to take back the Crimea and Donbas regions to once and for all secure Ukraine’s borders and population after years of conflict. Ukraine is not being supplied with enough military aid to win back those regions, hence the war has frozen with no one gaining ground.

It is not Ukraine that is ‘conceding defeat’ with Zelenskyy’s Peace Plan (which realistically is more a statement of intent than anything else), quite the opposite, but rather the US and EU conceding they are not prepared to supply enough military aid to Ukraine to achieve the victory Zelenskyy wants and coming up with their own versions of a ‘peace plan’ - However, putting any kind of pressure on Ukraine to concede sovereign territory to Russia is disgraceful IMO and rewards Russia with an illegal and violent land grab against the Ukranian people. Zelenskyy’s latest tact is to try and convince western investors that there is a great investment market for them if Ukraine can win the war - presumably hoping influential global investors can lobby their respective governments to up the military support for Ukraine to repel Russian forces from the Country, including the illegally annexed Crimea.

Hasn't there been talk of Western (mainly the US) governments putting pressure on Ukraine for peace talks for some time now. Like it or not if we want to be able to control Russian expansionism we MUST give Ukraine much much more. This drip feeding is not good enough. It would be sheer folly to let them keep an inch (or CM) of ground they have stolen.

 

[thejackal]

This is a great article, thanks (TLDR all of it but most of it)

However, you said above that Zelenksyy‘s peace plan points to him conceding defeat - I suggested above quite the contrary and these articles don’t change that pov. It is not Zelenskyy but the US and EU whose resolve has weakened.

There is a difference between what Zelenskyy wants and what the US and EU/other European Countries want as an outcome (with the exception of Poland, Finland and Lithuania) . The US and EU are (covertly) putting pressure on Ukraine to concede parts of Ukraine having for months and months only provided enough defensive military aid to hold the current frontlines. There is a BIG diference between that and Zelenskyy wanting to take back the Crimea and Donbas regions to once and for all secure Ukraine’s borders and population after years of conflict. Ukraine is not being supplied with enough military aid to win back those regions, hence the war has frozen with no one gaining ground.

It is not Ukraine that is ‘conceding defeat’ with Zelenskyy’s Peace Plan (which realistically is more a statement of intent than anything else), quite the opposite, but rather the US and EU conceding they are not prepared to supply enough military aid to Ukraine to achieve the victory Zelenskyy wants and coming up with their own versions of a ‘peace plan’ -

However, putting any kind of pressure on Ukraine to concede sovereign territory to Russia is disgraceful IMO and rewards Russia with an illegal and violent land grab against the Ukranian people. Zelenskyy’s latest tact is to try and convince western investors that there is a great investment market for them if Ukraine can win the war - presumably hoping influential global investors can lobby their respective governments to up the military support for Ukraine to repel Russian forces from the Country, including the illegally annexed Crimea.

The problem is the appetite for sending more money and arms to Ukraine is waning, and Zelensky and his generals know it.

This is the beginning of the end, not the end of the beginning.

 

[Eeyore]

And Russia can't remove Ukraine

That's the point I'm making. It's a stalemate. And it's all becoming very Western Front.

But Russia is in Ukrainian territory and has no intention of budging. So ultimately, there will end up being an agreement or this will just roll on and on with Ukraine constantly having to come cap in hand to keep the status quo.

 

[Eric the meek]

Don't be fooled by the bot narrative that Russia is winning. This Youtube video by Jake Broe, details:

1. From 0:00 - 9:00 Double takedown of 2 Russian command and control surveillance planes. Russian explanation is......friendly fire. Russia thinks this is more preferable than admitting Ukraine shot them down.
2. From 9:00 onwards, footage of the utilities industry collapsing across Russia, due to the engineers having been mobilised. Watch the videos. 'It is horrifyingly cold'.
3. Take care - there is another (linked) video detailing extreme abuse of Russian troops at gunpoint, by Russian troops.

 

[thejackal]

None of that is fact, it's all BS. Provide links to reliable sources to prove otherwise.

Fear not, they haven't.

You just don't want to accept that Russia may win this. That looks to me like an emotional response, not a logical one.

Yeah I will dig out some articles to back up my assertions when I've finished work.

Do you have any to back up yours?