[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I should imagine such conflict is something Putin will be feeling as a win. I'm hopeful the US will cave in and provide ATACMS to help speed up the counter offensive. They are clearly needed now before support starts to fade further.

These missiles yes but Ukraine need much more military hardware in general than they are getting.

The millions of North Korean (and likely Chinese) shells which Russia will be getting is likely enough to reassert artillery dominance if they can get them there. Ukraine need the capability to knock out the Russian logistics at range. Or rather they need to be able to scale up that capability.

 

[raymondo]

"Washington has made it clear that it does not want US-provided funds to hit Russia

This was stated by the coordinator for strategic communications of the US National Security Council, John Kirby, in an interview with the Telegraph.

Also, according to Kirby, the White House has not yet decided whether to send ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine.

“In the United States, there has been a long discussion going on about these long-range cruise missiles, and that conversation is continuing even as we speak. No decision has been made yet,” Kirby said.

 

[brighton_dave]

So Poland has now turned off the tap and will no longer supply weapons. Zelensky seems to have been pushing his luck for a while and suing a neighbour who's provided over 3 billion has unsurprisingly had consequences. Hopefully this sends a message to Zelensky to reign it in a little as supporters have limits.
At article re Polish supplied weapons making a difference:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...-polish-ones-and-becoming-much-more-powerful/

 

[chickens]

So Poland has now turned off the tap and will no longer supply weapons. Zelensky seems to have been pushing his luck for a while and suing a neighbour who's provided over 3 billion has unsurprisingly had consequences. Hopefully this sends a message to Zelensky to reign it in a little as supporters have limits.
At article re Polish supplied weapons making a difference:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...-polish-ones-and-becoming-much-more-powerful/

I can see why Poland are upset, but Zelensky’s people are dying. He doesn’t have time to muck about.

It’s really easy when nobody’s firing missiles at your cities, civilians and soldiers to advise caution and ration supplies, but every delay is killing Zelensky’s people. I completely understand him losing his rag a bit.

All our international organisations are effectively being shown up as paper tigers atm, and it weakens us considerably. We are good at wagging our fingers from a place of seemingly complete safety, but we’re really going to regret not giving Zelensky everything he needs to win this without getting our own troops involved.

The next one’s going to involve NATO.

 

[raymondo]

I think it's a big shame from both sides (Ukraine and Poland) these grandstanding public speeches blaming each other - surely could have should have been resolved, contained behind closed doors as there are far bigger issues at stake. Poland's elections are next month, I believe...get it done, and hopefully get relations back on track. This is the sort of public division that Putin will love to see.

Poland will no longer send weapons to Ukraine, says PM, as grain dispute escalates

Comments by Polish PM follow Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s accusation that some in Europe are in effect aiding Russia

www.theguardian.com

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I think it's a big shame from both sides (Ukraine and Poland) these grandstanding public speeches blaming each other - surely could have should have been resolved, contained behind closed doors as there are far bigger issues at stake. Poland's elections are next month, I believe...get it done, and hopefully get relations back on track. This is the sort of public division that Putin will love to see.

Poland will no longer send weapons to Ukraine, says PM, as grain dispute escalates

Comments by Polish PM follow Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s accusation that some in Europe are in effect aiding Russia

www.theguardian.com

There's no sugar coating it. This is a disaster. Putin will see it as a total vindication of hitting ports and will now feel empowered to target more civilian infrastructure.

There will also be more pressure on other states to slink away from providing arms

 

[raymondo]

There's no sugar coating it. This is a disaster. Putin will see it as a total vindication of hitting ports and will now feel empowered to target more civilian infrastructure.

There will also be more pressure on other states to slink away from providing arms

Yes, a disaster. I hope that Poland, the EU and Ukraine get round the table asap for some damage limitation. It's ridiculous that an economic situation affecting Polish farmers, and the upcoming election, can be allowed to destabilise a unified defence effort in this way.

 

[chickens]

There's no sugar coating it. This is a disaster. Putin will see it as a total vindication of hitting ports and will now feel empowered to target more civilian infrastructure.

There will also be more pressure on other states to slink away from providing arms

Agreed. We had the opportunity to stamp hard on this without risking a single non-Ukrainian soldier, and across Europe and the US we’ve all played politics with it thinking how clever we’re being. We (as the West) while not aggressors have allowed the bloodshed to be protracted, political patience on all sides to be exhausted, and potentially doomed Ukraine in the longer term.

I want to be thinking about the football today, instead I feel sick.

 

[raymondo]

Not to ignore the Ukraine-Poland-EU 'PR' disaster, but here's something more positive for us. It's a long one from Davydov, but worth a watch if you have 10 mins and skip past his sponsor ads.
Contains:
- info about a very large missile and drone attack yesterday on military airfields in Crimea
- info about a successful drone attack on jet fuel tanks in Sochi, most likely from drones launched from within Russia
- his take on Azerbaijan and Karabhak
- 'proof' that Kadyrov is alive
- some detail on partisan attack on aircraft at a government airfield in Moscow area
- his opinion that Zelenskiy should back off in the grain dispute with Poland
(Like the rest of us... let's enjoy this evening's game as best we can )

 

[chickens]

Not to ignore the Ukraine-Poland-EU 'PR' disaster, but here's something more positive for us. It's a long one from Davydov, but worth a watch if you have 10 mins and skip past his sponsor ads.
Contains:
- info about a very large missile and drone attack yesterday on military airfields in Crimea
- info about a successful drone attack on jet fuel tanks in Sochi, most likely from drones launched from within Russia
- his take on Azerbaijan and Karabhak
- 'proof' that Kadyrov is alive
- some detail on partisan attack on aircraft at a government airfield in Moscow area
- his opinion that Zelenskiy should back off in the grain dispute with Poland
(Like the rest of us... let's enjoy this evening's game as best we can )

Thank you. That is cheering. I’m going to focus on the football for the rest of the day and hope that in the meantime Putin trips down the stairs.

 

[brighton_dave]

My worry is the general public see Ukraine suing Poland, a country that have been the biggest advocate of the Ukraine.
That's the headline and I think that will set people's minds to think, why should we spend billions sending weapons if Ukraine are suing countries that have supported them. So many people make decisions based on headlines. I don't understand the details either tbh.
I really do think this is going to impact the number of people who support sending further weapons. We know this number was already reducing with Putin rubbing his hands.
I'm definitely on the give them what they need side, but think suing them right now is a mistake, one I'm personally gutted about.
I'm thinking this is now more likely to result in support being withdrawn along with negotiations that concede territory.
I hope I'm wrong as would love nothing more than to see Ukranian boots on the ground in Crimea.
Enjoy the game guys. Albion by a 2 goal margin..

 

[raymondo]

My worry is the general public see Ukraine suing Poland, a country that have been the biggest advocate of the Ukraine.
That's the headline and I think that will set people's minds to think, why should we spend billions sending weapons if Ukraine are suing countries that have supported them. So many people make decisions based on headlines. I don't understand the details either tbh.
I really do think this is going to impact the number of people who support sending further weapons. We know this number was already reducing with Putin rubbing his hands.
I'm definitely on the give them what they need side, but think suing them right now is a mistake, one I'm personally gutted about.
I'm thinking this is now more likely to result in support being withdrawn along with negotiations that concede territory.
I hope I'm wrong as would love nothing more than to see Ukranian boots on the ground in Crimea.
Enjoy the game guys. Albion by a 2 goal margin..

Yeah. Hopefully this incident will give the whole allies thing (EU, US, UK...) a kick up the backside, reinforce a united approach, and even speed up weapon supply.
Zelenskiy also needs to remember (and his advisors need to do their job) that other countries have their domestic priorities that are sometimes more urgent for them (in this case, elections in Poland) than the (clearly more critical) war in Ukraine that people are now expecting to last for a long time.

 

[crookie]

Sean Bell on Sky News just now seemed very confident the Poland Ukraine spat will be settled swiftly once Zelensky gets back from New York. The obvious logic being that it is in Polands interest for Ukraine to prevail because if they fall, it will be Poland next

 

[JamesAndTheGiantHead]

It doesn’t sound like Poland has got much stuff left to hand over to Ukraine anyway

 

[portslade seagull]

The French for a major country seem to be dragging their heels handing anything over. Not even in the top 10 for arms sent across

 

[crookie]

It doesn’t sound like Poland has got much stuff left to hand over to Ukraine anyway

Apparently they will still be sending the stuff they have agreed to send up till now

 

[crookie]

Potential breach in the Sorovkin Line by the 82nd Air Assault brigade, with Stryykers and Marders reported moving beyond Dragons teeth and other Anti Tank defences. Could be hugely significant if true. Only infantry had breached these defences up to now. Reported in the Telegraph and Business Week.

 

[raymondo]

It doesn’t sound like Poland has got much stuff left to hand over to Ukraine anyway

Yes, I just read that too. All a bit moot.

 

[Nobby]

Zelensky is watching his peole die at the hands of a terrorist invader

Any country that slows down support is backing the Russians and weakening the West's resolve further.

Maybe Zelensky's forces should accidently launch a few missiles back at Russian cities.

Then the West might just have to wake up a bit and help sort this out.

 

[Sirnormangall]

It doesn’t sound like Poland has got much stuff left to hand over to Ukraine anyway

Yes, sounds like this won’t have much impact on the ground, but it plays into the hands of Putin’s PR machine and he’ll exploit the apparent discord.