[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Nobby Cybergoat]

probably not as i see it's on the way to being internet fact. another point is Starlink is not operational over Crimea - remember from the last story - so an outage would have zero impact.

But I suppose the theory goes like this. At the time Russia detects that missiles are launched, it doesn't know whether the target is in Crimea or Southern Ukraine. It also doesn't know if the particular missile needs Starlink or is part of a wider barrage some of which may need it and some won't. At this point, they text Elon. Elon flicks it off and claims it's a global outage.

Now this could be complete bollocks.

But according to what i've read this global outage appeared at the exact time of the missile attack. This could be a complete co-incidence. But it's hot on the heels of last weeks incident, a refusal to turn it on.

I don't know the truth of this, but surely Musk has questions to answer. You've also got to look at his history of capricious behaviour (someone on twitter put it that he might well turn off the brakes on your Tesla because he likes your woman) and dubious pronouncements.

 

[beorhthelm]

But I suppose the theory goes like this. At the time Russia detects that missiles are launched, it doesn't know whether the target is in Crimea or Southern Ukraine. It also doesn't know if the particular missile needs Starlink or is part of a wider barrage some of which may need it and some won't. At this point, they text Elon. Elon flicks it off and claims it's a global outage.

Now this could be complete bollocks.

But according to what i've read this global outage appeared at the exact time of the missile attack. This could be a complete co-incidence. But it's hot on the heels of last weeks incident, a refusal to turn it on.

I don't know the truth of this, but surely Musk has questions to answer. You've also got to look at his history of capricious behaviour (someone on twitter put it that he might well turn off the brakes on your Tesla because he likes your woman) and dubious pronouncements.

it is bollocks. to reiterate, reliable missle guidance would use GPS, Starlink doesn't operate over Crimea, outage was some time after the attack. so specualtion is flying in the face of verified information for purpose of stiring up. apparently though Musk is a Russian agent now. also, oh look the original "Starlink was turned off" story was wrong in the first place. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2...x-head-blocked-ukraine-drone-attack-was-wrong

the question is why are people making this stuff up and pushing it, probably Russian interference at source.

 

[fly high]

it is bollocks. to reiterate, reliable missle guidance would use GPS, Starlink doesn't operate over Crimea, outage was some time after the attack. so specualtion is flying in the face of verified information for purpose of stiring up. apparently though Musk is a Russian agent now. also, oh look the original "Starlink was turned off" story was wrong in the first place. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2...x-head-blocked-ukraine-drone-attack-was-wrong

the question is why are people making this stuff up and pushing it, probably Russian interference at source.

People just love conspiracy theories & Musk is seriously odd plus as you say Russians may be the source.

 

[raymondo]

 

[driddles]

..... At this point, they text Elon. Elon flicks it off and claims it's a global outage.

Now this could be complete bollocks....

I don't remember the exact details, but it goes something like this - if StarLink is used for military purposes it falls under different restrictions in the USA. Musk doesn't want to risk falling under the military restrictions, so he is concerned about allowing StarLink to be used for a 100% clear military purpose. So Ukraine can use StarLink, which Musk provided free of charge when this invasion started, to communicate between civilians, troops, etc... but not for the actual attack (so telling a group go attack here and now is not military but a guided missile is...) I know, whatever....

My memory also seems to recall StarLink selling a more expensive system to the US Government that does not need to operate under these restrictions, and the the US Gov was sending the more expensive system to Ukraine.

 

[raymondo]

 

[raymondo]

Bad post

 

[raymondo]

"Reuters is carrying a little more detail about Ukraine’s earlier claim to have destroyed a Russian air defence system near the town of Yevpatoriya in Crimea, which Russia unilaterally annexed in 2014. [See 8.55 BST]

The Ukrainian source told Reuters drones blinded a Russian “Triumf” air defence system by attacking its radar and antenna. The navy then fired two Ukrainian-made Neptune cruise missiles at the system’s launch complexes, the source said.

The Neptune anti-ship missile has been modified to attack ground targets, military analysts say."

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

"Reuters is carrying a little more detail about Ukraine’s earlier claim to have destroyed a Russian air defence system near the town of Yevpatoriya in Crimea, which Russia unilaterally annexed in 2014. [See 8.55 BST]

The Ukrainian source told Reuters drones blinded a Russian “Triumf” air defence system by attacking its radar and antenna. The navy then fired two Ukrainian-made Neptune cruise missiles at the system’s launch complexes, the source said.

The Neptune anti-ship missile has been modified to attack ground targets, military analysts say."

There seems to be a real focus on the Western side of Crimea, in particular air defence and naval assets. I'm sure a greater military mind than mine can ponder the strategy being employed here, but there certainly seems to be a plan.

 

[beorhthelm]

There seems to be a real focus on the Western side of Crimea, in particular air defence and naval assets. I'm sure a greater military mind than mine can ponder the strategy being employed here, but there certainly seems to be a plan.

reckon answered own question there. Crimea is really all about Sevastopol and the navel base.

 

[raymondo]

I'm assuming it's to try and clear the Russians out of Sevastopol, and weakening the defences could also pave the way for a Ukrainian amphibious landing in the West at some point (?).

 

[raymondo]

A very lucky escape by all accounts...those unprofessional effing stupid Russians.

The last sentence in the article also surprised me - I thought we'd be sharing manned Black Sea surveillance with someone. Anyway, good for us https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66798508.amp

 

[raymondo]

I can't get my previous post out of my mind. If the RAF plane had been shot down with full loss of life, what would our response have been?
I don't for one minute think NATO would have declared war. Russia would have said... terribly sorry, just a mistake, we'll severely reprimand the pilot and ground control, effing blah blah.
For me (and I have no idea where I sit on the diplomacy/vengeance spectrum) I'd have like to seen the UK/NATO give Russia 30 mins notice to remove their personnel (not their planes) from the airbase from which their jets took off, then destroy the base and all planes on it.
With a clear warning to Russia that if they respond, then it's war with NATO.
Can't imagine that would have happened though...
Thoughts anyone?

 

[fly high]

I can't get my previous post out of my mind. If the RAF plane had been shot down with full loss of life, what would our response have been?
I don't for one minute think NATO would have declared war. Russia would have said... terribly sorry, just a mistake, we'll severely reprimand the pilot and ground control, effing blah blah.
For me (and I have no idea where I sit on the diplomacy/vengeance spectrum) I'd have like to seen the UK/NATO give Russia 30 mins notice to remove their personnel (not their planes) from the airbase from which their jets took off, then destroy the base and all planes on it.
With a clear warning to Russia that if they respond, then it's war with NATO.
Can't imagine that would have happened though...
Thoughts anyone?

Think we would have been a bit like Poland with the stray missile over their border (although accept slightly different as it was a stray Ukrainian missile, or so they say), it would be stiff rebuke, few expelled diplomats but think the rest of NATO will be urging restraint, they really don't want war with Russia. Problem with that is we know Putin will see it as a sign of weakness & he will think he can get away with more attacks.

 

[herecomesaregular]

I can't get my previous post out of my mind. If the RAF plane had been shot down with full loss of life, what would our response have been?
I don't for one minute think NATO would have declared war. Russia would have said... terribly sorry, just a mistake, we'll severely reprimand the pilot and ground control, effing blah blah.
For me (and I have no idea where I sit on the diplomacy/vengeance spectrum) I'd have like to seen the UK/NATO give Russia 30 mins notice to remove their personnel (not their planes) from the airbase from which their jets took off, then destroy the base and all planes on it.
With a clear warning to Russia that if they respond, then it's war with NATO.
Can't imagine that would have happened though...
Thoughts anyone?

NATO would have done eff all imho and probably right to do so.
So, one missle fired off ok but missed and one malfunctioned and just fell to earth. Shows how poor Russian weaponary/equipment/pilot skill is ... luckily.

 

[raymondo]

NATO would have done eff all imho and probably right to do so.
So, one missle fired off ok but missed and one malfunctioned and just fell to earth. Shows how poor Russian weaponary/equipment/pilot skill is ... luckily.

...but my scenario was in my first sentence: IF their missile had not missed, had shot down the RAF plane with full loss of life.

 

[raymondo]

DD's take on the recent focus on western Crimea, with details including pics of the damage to Russian sub and ship. You'll have to jump through his ads but it's worth a watch if you want his detailed view on this.
plus

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

...but my scenario was in my first sentence: IF their missile had not missed, had shot down the RAF plane with full loss of life.

I don't think we would have responded with force. They would have just claimed it was some sort of error. Obfuscation worked when they shot down a passenger airliner.

 

[herecomesaregular]

...but my scenario was in my first sentence: IF their missile had not missed, had shot down the RAF plane with full loss of life.

And my answer was also in my first sentence.

 

[raymondo]

And my answer was also in my first sentence.

OK, got it, I misread your reply