[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Putin's situation seems to be manifesting itself in a number of ways.

Not only is he now considering spending what's left of Russia's wealth fund on North Korean missiles, but a few days ago I read that he is seeking to recruit Armenian and Kazakh troops, and putting his elite troops on defensive detail in Zap.

Today, he is reported to be trafficking Cubans:

Ukraine-Russia war: Putin accused of trafficking Cubans to fight in his invasion

Putin’s forces pushed back in southern Ukraine as Zelensky meets his troops

www.independent.co.uk

 

[A1X]

They ‘may’ even choose to ignore it and continue to advance upon the Crimean border. They’ll have the Russians trapped and can just cut off their supplies from Crimea and pummel them with munitions.

See Calais & Dunkirk, 1944

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

See Calais & Dunkirk, 1944

Well also more recently, Ukraine re-took the city of Kherson, just be making it impossible for the Russians to stay supplied

So they could just go round Tokmak and equivalent cities and wait for the mobilised Russians to surrender, which I don't think will take long

Or they could try Bakhmut style street by street, house by house warfare at the cost of 100,000 men per town?

I think I know what they will do.

 

[raymondo]

A report from the Guardian...

Ukrainian forces breached Russia’s first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia after weeks of painstaking mine clearance, but the scale of losses incurred to make such gains has been vast, according to a report.
“Sure, we’ve breached the first line of the Russians but f***ing hell. What a cost,” “Boyets”, from a special tasks unit fighting south of Robotyne, told the Times. His unit has allegedly lost 75% of its personnel since joining the counteroffensive in July.
The 47th brigade took 15 weeks to move forward eight miles to capture Robotyne, heralded as a key strategic victory. Brigade medics said casualties were in four figures. “One day in July we piled 24 wounded into and on to a single vehicle,” “Taras”, a doctor heading a medevac unit said. “

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

A report from the Guardian...

Ukrainian forces breached Russia’s first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia after weeks of painstaking mine clearance, but the scale of losses incurred to make such gains has been vast, according to a report.
“Sure, we’ve breached the first line of the Russians but f***ing hell. What a cost,” “Boyets”, from a special tasks unit fighting south of Robotyne, told the Times. His unit has allegedly lost 75% of its personnel since joining the counteroffensive in July.
The 47th brigade took 15 weeks to move forward eight miles to capture Robotyne, heralded as a key strategic victory. Brigade medics said casualties were in four figures. “One day in July we piled 24 wounded into and on to a single vehicle,” “Taras”, a doctor heading a medevac unit said. “

Losses have been and will continue to be horrendous.

May Putin rot in hell along with cowardly western politicians too scared to prove the weapons that Ukraine need to reduce this bloodshed as far as possible.

 

[raymondo]

Losses have been and will continue to be horrendous.

May Putin rot in hell along with cowardly western politicians too scared to prove the weapons that Ukraine need to reduce this bloodshed as far as possible.

I'm wondering if there comes a point in next few weeks when it's to Ukraine's advantage to freeze the counteroffensive until F16s and further artillery supplies can be actually used to reduce this shocking loss of life??
I would hope the West have said their support wouldn't waver if that happened...but who knows what's discussed behind the doors.

 

[sparkie]

I saw that the first Abrams tanks are arriving in a couple of weeks.

And once the winter freeze solidifies the empty reservoir bed then surely there is a charge across the icy terrain to recapture the nuclear power plant.

 

[raymondo]

Very interesting and detailed update from Denys Davydov, including:
. Klischivka
. Robotyne, Verbhove shape, and the need to protect their flanks
. Thanks to Russian journalists, Ukraine now know location of air defences that protect Putin's Moscow residence
. . plus other bits
Well worth a watch if you have 15mins or so.

 

[raymondo]

Russian minefields

To Slow The Ukrainian Counteroffensive, the Russian Army Quadrupled The Size Of Its Minefields

The Russians quadrupled the depth of their defensive minefields, from 120 meters to 500 meters—and also increased the density of mines within the expanded fields.

www.forbes.com

 

[raymondo]

Follow the money...

Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine to receive $500,000 reward

Maksim Kuzminov, a Russian helicopter pilot who has defected to Ukraine, will receive the hryvnia equivalent of $500,000 (approximately Hr 18.48 million), Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR) spokesperson Andrii Yusov said on Sept. 5.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Follow the money...

Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine to receive $500,000 reward

Maksim Kuzminov, a Russian helicopter pilot who has defected to Ukraine, will receive the hryvnia equivalent of $500,000 (approximately Hr 18.48 million), Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR) spokesperson Andrii Yusov said on Sept. 5.

kyivindependent.com

Hopefully this will tempt a few more.

 

[Eric the meek]

Follow the money...

Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine to receive $500,000 reward

Maksim Kuzminov, a Russian helicopter pilot who has defected to Ukraine, will receive the hryvnia equivalent of $500,000 (approximately Hr 18.48 million), Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR) spokesperson Andrii Yusov said on Sept. 5.

kyivindependent.com

I would imagine the 500,000 dollars is money well spent.

As well as the propaganda value of a Russian helicopter pilot defecting, encouraging more to do so, it has implications for morale within the Russian military.

But perhaps more importantly, getting hold of a Russian helicopter, intact, undamaged and operational, would be of huge interest to the Ukrainians, who will be crawling all over it.

 

[raymondo]

I would imagine the 500,000 dollars is money well spent.

As well as the propaganda value of a Russian helicopter pilot defecting, encouraging more to do so, it has implications for morale within the Russian military.

But perhaps more importantly, getting hold of a Russian helicopter, intact, undamaged and operational, would be of huge interest to the Ukrainians, who will be crawling all over it.

I imagine they'll also be able to repurpose the heli for Ukrainian use ??

 

[Eric the meek]

I imagine they'll also be able to repurpose the heli for Ukrainian use ??

I don't know about that. I was thinking more about thoroughly investigating their systems - rotors, navigation, weapons etc, so that the Ukrainians can identify weaknesses and exploit them in future conflicts. Much the same as in football, where the opposition identify a weak point and play on it.

 

[knocky1]

So please just leave this thread if you want to talk about issues other than those indirectly
related to the main thrust of the thread. It's really quite simple.

I think you meant directly rather than indirectly. Proved my point, thanks for being polite.
Poland is currently slowing Ukrainians crossing the border into Poland and slowing humanitarian aid into Ukraine. There is a political reason but I suppose that is not of interest to this non political thread.

 

[raymondo]

An article from Open Democracy yesterday analysing 'elections' being held in occupied Ukraine this week.

"It’s election season in Russia, with gubernatorial, regional council and other local races taking place – and a sham vote in the Russian-occupied territories in southern and eastern Ukraine.

With Russia seeking to retain control of Ukrainian regions including Donetsk, Luhansk and parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, the ‘elections’ look achingly familiar. They’re an attempt to legitimise the Russian occupation.

After its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia stripped election officials in the occupied areas of their powers. Now, the candidates for councils in these areas are a mix of pro-Russian local residents and Russian citizens.

The local candidates either hail from Ukrainian political parties with some kind of pro-Russia leaning or are taxi drivers and security guards without any previous political experience. And the other 42% of the candidates are Russian citizens without any previous connection to the region, according to a report by the Eastern Human Rights Group, an association of lawyers and activists from Ukraine’s eastern oblasts, and the non-profit Institute for Strategic Research and Security, which is made up of experts on Kremlinology and Russian policy towards Ukraine.
United Russia, Russia’s ruling party, understandably had its pick of the candidates and even held primary-style pre-election contests in the occupied territories.

The influx of outside candidates indicates some of the Kremlin’s main problems in holding elections in Ukraine. For the most part, local residents do not want to go to the polls. The fact that the Russian election commission has permitted residents to use their Ukrainian passports to vote – after a huge four-month campaign to force them to take up Russian passports – is damning.

Local residents have also refused to run for election as candidates of Russian political parties for ‘legislative assemblies’ in the occupied territories. And that means the Kremlin’s “political technologists”, a euphemism for the well-developed industry of political manipulation in the former Soviet states, have their work cut out for them.

Reports of residents being detained for failing to cast their ballot are designed to scare others into voting. Analysts say there are grounds to suspect the election commission will manipulate the vote

The Russian authorities made an early start. Last September, president Vladimir Putin redrew the political map by announcing the annexation of the four partially occupied Ukrainian regions. Various Russian political parties, namely Just Russia and the Russian Communist Party, started to operate in Luhansk and Donetsk.
And months later, in December, deputies of the ‘People’s Councils’ in Luhansk and Donetsk adopted new laws that allowed them to elect the heads of the ‘people’s republics’, rather than holding a public vote. Similar changes were adopted by the occupation administrations of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.
More short-term measures have also been introduced. Russia’s election commission has permitted ‘early voting’ in the occupied territories, which essentially means residents can vote over the course of a whole week – boosting the turnout. Polling places are many and varied, including a bus stop, the courtyard of an apartment building, as well as voters’ doorsteps via home visits by election commission representatives accompanied by police or the Russian national guard.

Reports of residents being detained for failing to cast their ballot are designed to scare others into voting. Analysts say there are grounds to suspect the election commission will manipulate the vote.

Another tool are the polling stations set up across the Russian towns and cities where former residents of Ukraine’s occupied territories now live, having been deported or displaced by Russia’s 18-month war. These polling stations will be used to further increase the vote.

Finally, voter lists in the occupied territories have been expanded to include two further groups. Migrant workers from Central Asia – brought to Ukraine for construction and other work – will be allowed to vote, as will employees of Russia’s security and law enforcement services currently deployed to the occupied regions. Our sources suggest that Russian citizens without any previous connection to the region will now make up 50% of the voter lists.

These sham elections are an attempt to integrate Ukraine's occupied territories into Russia's political system. The Kremlin is trying to destroy everything connected with Ukraine, even those elites in the Donbas that have collaborated with Russia over the past eight years. But for those who cooperate now, the future is likely bleak. The heads of the occupied territories will be switched out in the next few years, perhaps even sooner. Even now the FSB is checking candidates on the polygraph."

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

An article from Open Democracy yesterday analysing 'elections' being held in occupied Ukraine this week.

"It’s election season in Russia, with gubernatorial, regional council and other local races taking place – and a sham vote in the Russian-occupied territories in southern and eastern Ukraine.

With Russia seeking to retain control of Ukrainian regions including Donetsk, Luhansk and parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, the ‘elections’ look achingly familiar. They’re an attempt to legitimise the Russian occupation.

After its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia stripped election officials in the occupied areas of their powers. Now, the candidates for councils in these areas are a mix of pro-Russian local residents and Russian citizens.

The local candidates either hail from Ukrainian political parties with some kind of pro-Russia leaning or are taxi drivers and security guards without any previous political experience. And the other 42% of the candidates are Russian citizens without any previous connection to the region, according to a report by the Eastern Human Rights Group, an association of lawyers and activists from Ukraine’s eastern oblasts, and the non-profit Institute for Strategic Research and Security, which is made up of experts on Kremlinology and Russian policy towards Ukraine.
United Russia, Russia’s ruling party, understandably had its pick of the candidates and even held primary-style pre-election contests in the occupied territories.

The influx of outside candidates indicates some of the Kremlin’s main problems in holding elections in Ukraine. For the most part, local residents do not want to go to the polls. The fact that the Russian election commission has permitted residents to use their Ukrainian passports to vote – after a huge four-month campaign to force them to take up Russian passports – is damning.

Local residents have also refused to run for election as candidates of Russian political parties for ‘legislative assemblies’ in the occupied territories. And that means the Kremlin’s “political technologists”, a euphemism for the well-developed industry of political manipulation in the former Soviet states, have their work cut out for them.


The Russian authorities made an early start. Last September, president Vladimir Putin redrew the political map by announcing the annexation of the four partially occupied Ukrainian regions. Various Russian political parties, namely Just Russia and the Russian Communist Party, started to operate in Luhansk and Donetsk.
And months later, in December, deputies of the ‘People’s Councils’ in Luhansk and Donetsk adopted new laws that allowed them to elect the heads of the ‘people’s republics’, rather than holding a public vote. Similar changes were adopted by the occupation administrations of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.
More short-term measures have also been introduced. Russia’s election commission has permitted ‘early voting’ in the occupied territories, which essentially means residents can vote over the course of a whole week – boosting the turnout. Polling places are many and varied, including a bus stop, the courtyard of an apartment building, as well as voters’ doorsteps via home visits by election commission representatives accompanied by police or the Russian national guard.

Reports of residents being detained for failing to cast their ballot are designed to scare others into voting. Analysts say there are grounds to suspect the election commission will manipulate the vote.

Another tool are the polling stations set up across the Russian towns and cities where former residents of Ukraine’s occupied territories now live, having been deported or displaced by Russia’s 18-month war. These polling stations will be used to further increase the vote.

Finally, voter lists in the occupied territories have been expanded to include two further groups. Migrant workers from Central Asia – brought to Ukraine for construction and other work – will be allowed to vote, as will employees of Russia’s security and law enforcement services currently deployed to the occupied regions. Our sources suggest that Russian citizens without any previous connection to the region will now make up 50% of the voter lists.

These sham elections are an attempt to integrate Ukraine's occupied territories into Russia's political system. The Kremlin is trying to destroy everything connected with Ukraine, even those elites in the Donbas that have collaborated with Russia over the past eight years. But for those who cooperate now, the future is likely bleak. The heads of the occupied territories will be switched out in the next few years, perhaps even sooner. Even now the FSB is checking candidates on the polygraph."

Who do they think they're convincing?

 

[raymondo]

Who do they think they're convincing?

Goodness only knows...anyone that supports Putin I guess

 

[Nobby]

From my friend in Ukraine

He wrote this piece after seeing footage of his parents house in Chasiv Yar.

 

[A1X]

Musk Secretly Foiled Ukrainian Attack on Russian Ships: CNN

The billlionaire allegedly feared the strike on Crimea could trigger nuclear war.

www.thedailybeast.com