[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

I won't do this often, but people will begin to talk about the rainy season and mud in Ukraine. Here is the beautiful 14 day forecast for Bahkmut. Various weather sites say September is typically good with Oct/Nov being the worst. So, can Ukraine get to Tokmak in the next 30 days?


View attachment 165863

It's a good question.
IMO it will be difficult to get to Tokmak in that time unless there's a retreat of Russians there.
I know next to nothing about military tactics but I'm assuming Ukraine will have to make a wedge shaped advance in that direction or they'll be too easily cut off from behind...(). Quite a lot of resources to commit and protect if they want to advance quickly?
Anyway, here's hoping they do indeed get there before the weather turns.
Thanks for the forecast

 

[A1X]

 

[raymondo]

Great reminder, thanks

 

[driddles]

It's a good question.
IMO it will be difficult to get to Tokmak in that time unless there's a retreat of Russians there.
I know next to nothing about military tactics but I'm assuming Ukraine will have to make a wedge shaped advance in that direction or they'll be too easily cut off from behind...(). Quite a lot of resources to commit and protect if they want to advance quickly?
Anyway, here's hoping they do indeed get there before the weather turns.
Thanks for the forecast

From the map below, Ukraine has already taken Robotyne at the top, and geo located footage has them into half of Verbove to the right.
Ukraine is also at the outskirts of Novoprokopivka and some updates say the russians are already retreating troops from the area. There's nothing big to hide behind after Novoprokopivka, so if Ukraine takes Novoprokopivka they could fairly quickly get to the outskirts of Tokmak (19km).

I suspect the russians will set their next main defence in and around TokMak, but they won't have much time to set it up. They had about 1 year to set up the 3 defence lines in Robotyne, they don't have that time now.

Can't find the article, but Ukraine now has better range in their artillery than russia has. Up to now russia has been able to fire on the Ukrainians knowing their artillery was mainly safe, Ukraine now has them bested with artillery ranges several KM further than russians. So Ukraine is going to be able to start picking off russian artillery from a safe, unreachable distance. russia will need to either withdraw artillery or suffer losses.

I have no idea what will really happen next, but I think Ukraine could be ready to have a good month.

 

[raymondo]

From the map below, Ukraine has already taken Robotyne at the top, and geo located footage has them into half of Verbove to the right.
Ukraine is also at the outskirts of Novoprokopivka and some updates say the russians are already retreating troops from the area. There's nothing big to hide behind after Novoprokopivka, so if Ukraine takes Novoprokopivka they could fairly quickly get to the outskirts of Tokmak (19km).

View attachment 165869

I suspect the russians will set their next main defence in and around TokMak, but they won't have much time to set it up. They had about 1 year to set up the 3 defence lines in Robotyne, they don't have that time now.

Can't find the article, but Ukraine now has better range in their artillery than russia has. Up to now russia has been able to fire on the Ukrainians knowing their artillery was mainly safe, Ukraine now has them bested with artillery ranges several KM further than russians. So Ukraine is going to be able to start picking off russian artillery from a safe, unreachable distance. russia will need to either withdraw artillery or suffer losses.

I have no idea what will really happen next, but I think Ukraine could be ready to have a good month.

Then it could well happen, if there's not much to hide behind after Novoprokopivka, and if Ukraine can pick off their artillery... the Russians may well decide their best chance is to reset at Tokmak.
Some partisan activity and plenty of drones hitting Tokmak would also destabilise the Russians there.
Here's hoping your description plays out

 

[driddles]

Then it could well happen, if there's not much to hide behind after Novoprokopivka, and if Ukraine can pick off their artillery... the Russians may well decide their best chance is to reset at Tokmak.
Some partisan activity and plenty of drones hitting Tokmak would also destabilise the Russians there.
Here's hoping your description plays out

Here's hoping. Tokmak is a spider web of major roads leading in all directions. Taking it, or having it within easy firing range would be huge. russia would still be able to move around, but they would be stuck using smaller roads.

 

[sparkie]

I won't do this often, but people will begin to talk about the rainy season and mud in Ukraine. Here is the beautiful 14 day forecast for Bahkmut. Various weather sites say September is typically good with Oct/Nov being the worst. So, can Ukraine get to Tokmak in the next 30 days?


View attachment 165863

They don't have to get there... just get close enough to HIMARS the roads and railway to oblivion.

 

[raymondo]

Statement from Budanov that the attacks on Pskov were launched from inside Russia.

Ukraine war: Drone attack on Pskov airbase from inside Russia - Kyiv

Ukraine's military intelligence chief says two planes were damaged and two destroyed in Tuesday's attack.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Eric the meek]

Ukraine war: US sees 'notable progress' by Ukraine army in south:​

Ukraine war: US sees 'notable progress' by Ukraine army in south

The US praise comes as Kyiv admits the fighting against strong Russian defensive lines is tough.

www.bbc.co.uk

Maybe it's just me, but when the US publishes reports like this, they carry weight.

 

[driddles]

They don't have to get there... just get close enough to HIMARS the roads and railway to oblivion.

I think the HIMARS that Ukraine has are good in the 80 KM range, so they are already in striking distance. The individual rockets run about $100K US and it would be better to pummel the russians with cluster munitions and lesser priced munitions.

One thing to consider, TOKMAK is about 230KM as the crow flies from the Kerch bridge, Storm shadow missiles in Ukraine are good to about 250KM. Be great to completely disable the bridge before the winter slowdown arrives.

 

[Sirnormangall]

Statement from Budanov that the attacks on Pskov were launched from inside Russia.

Ukraine war: Drone attack on Pskov airbase from inside Russia - Kyiv

Ukraine's military intelligence chief says two planes were damaged and two destroyed in Tuesday's attack.

www.bbc.co.uk

That’s what some of us have said before - that some of the drone attacks must have been launched from inside Russia. Interesting, if true - and that’s what Ukraine would like Russia to believe. But regardless of where launched, the impact of drone attacks on Russia seems to be growing.

 

[Eric the meek]

Here's an interesting report from the BBC, detailing how anecdotes from the diplomatic community over the years, have mirrored Russia's descent into a rogue nation.

Threats, insults, and Kremlin 'robots': How Russian diplomacy died under Putin

Russian diplomacy is no longer about co-operation but "putting Westerners in their place", say ex-Kremlin insiders.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Titanic]

Ukraine War: Counter-offensive troops punch through Russia line, generals claim

Kyiv says its troops are gaining momentum in what continues to be a lengthy and bloody counter-offensive.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine War: Counter-offensive troops punch through Russia line, generals claim​

Ukrainian generals claim they have breached Russia's formidable first line of defences in the south, where most of the fighting has centred since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion.
After months of slow progress, is Kyiv's counter-offensive, launched in June, at a turning point?
"Yes, it's true," says Yuriy Sak, an advisor to Ukraine's defence minister, when asked if the breach had happened.
"Little by little, I think we're gaining momentum," he said.
"We are now between the first and second defensive lines," one of Ukraine's top generals in the south, Brig Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskiy told Britain's Observer newspaper.

 

[ChickenBaltiPie]

I suspect the russians will set their next main defence in and around TokMak, but they won't have much time to set it up. They had about 1 year to set up the 3 defence lines in Robotyne, they don't have that time now.

The Russians have already long since established VERY substantial defence in TokMak I’m sorry to report.

Ukraines advance to TokMak will be relatively swift I would suspect, now they’re through Russia’s main line of defence, but taking TokMak won’t be.

They ‘may’ even choose to ignore it and continue to advance upon the Crimean border. They’ll have the Russians trapped and can just cut off their supplies from Crimea and pummel them with munitions.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

The Russians have already long since established VERY substantial defence in TokMak I’m sorry to report.

Ukraines advance to TokMak will be relatively swift I would suspect, now they’re through Russia’s main line of defence, but taking TokMak won’t be.

They ‘may’ even choose to ignore it and continue to advance upon the Crimean border. They’ll have the Russians trapped and can just cut off their supplies from Crimea and pummel them with munitions.

surround it, cut it off and then daily strikes on the Russian military sites within the city. if the terrain is suitable and the vehicles suitable you could link the routes into the city with a rudimentary series of link roads. They don’t need to enter the city of they cut it off.

 

[Binney on acid]

That loony from North Korea is visiting Putin for arms talks ?!!!! God help us !

 

[raymondo]

That loony from North Korea is visiting Putin for arms talks ?!!!! God help us !

More sanctions incoming please...

 

[The Clamp]

That loony from North Korea is visiting Putin for arms talks ?!!!! God help us !

This is a good sign.
If Putin is seriously considering purchasing Kim’s toilet tube missiles and boxes of assorted factory reject fireworks, he’s in a dire situation.

 

[raymondo]

This is a good sign.
If Putin is seriously considering purchasing Kim’s toilet tube missiles and boxes of assorted factory reject fireworks, he’s in a dire situation.

He is indeed - the massive Russian machine can't get close to replacing what they've used (missiles, tanks etc) through their own manufacturing.

 

[Sirnormangall]

That loony from North Korea is visiting Putin for arms talks ?!!!! God help us !

Great opportunity to kill 2 birds with 1 stone!