[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[The Clamp]

Russia have no idea what they are going into with a second wave. They will be obliterated.

 

[SeagullinExile]

I keep hearing this but I'm not sure I'm ready to believe it. I've yet to see satellite photos of masses of equipment near the border, or of masses of troops. These types of photos typically find there way into the various news sites at some time.

We heard about and saw images of the massing of troops before the initial attacks. You don't just hide thousands of tanks from surveillance, you sure don't move them quickly into place without them being noticed either.

You could look at it another way to be fair. Why let Ivan know that you know where they’re amassing troops by releasing pictures? They’ll just reposition them.

Easier to defend any offensive tbh. Plus, you can prepare your own counter attack with a little more confidence.

 

[Triggaaar]

Do you remember the first honest doctor who called it out in China (I forget the poor man's name) - IIRC he lost his job, was pilloried by the establishment and the press and then died of Covid. Shameful.

Yes I do. I think he had to issue an apology for scaremongering or similar?

 

[raymondo]

Good point.

A year ago Ukraine kind of knew something was likely to happen, but they were a much small neighbour with earlier gen tanks and MIG’s. It should’ve been a push over. And yet, brave troops lurking down side roads reaped hell on Russian tank columns, downed attack helicopters. My great hope is that Ukraine and their skilful western advisors have something special lined up for Putin’s second wave.

I reckon Putin’s going to try to seal up the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. A land grab before a settlement so that he claim a victory.

I hope his forces suffer huge losses and they ultimately gain Jack Sh1t.

'reckon Putin’s going to try to seal up the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. A land grab before a settlement so that he claim a victory.'

Yes, I think that's Putin's goal. Let's hope it's a glorious failure.
With a bit of luck their army and the Wagner scum will be fighting each other before long.

 

[Weststander]

You could look at it another way to be fair. Why let Ivan know that you know where they’re amassing troops by releasing pictures? They’ll just reposition them.

Easier to defend any offensive tbh. Plus, you can prepare your own counter attack with a little more confidence.

Exactly.

Western satellites and other spy technology will know all they need to. Don’t reveal that intell to the enemy and never reveal how good your spy technology is.

 

[raymondo]

Yes I do. I think he had to issue an apology for scaremongering or similar?

Yes he did...was treated like a traitor.

 

[Weststander]

'reckon Putin’s going to try to seal up the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. A land grab before a settlement so that he claim a victory.'

Yes, I think that's Putin's goal. Let's hope it's a glorious failure.
With a bit of luck their army and the Wagner scum will be fighting each other before long.

I hadn’t dabbled for a few months, but went down the war videos rabbit hole the other evening … Wagner murderers taking big losses. Just flesh n bone too when it comes to snipers and drones.

 

[dangull]

In WW2 The Soviet Union lost about 26 Million people, but were the deciding factor in defeating the NAZIS
No doubt Putin has this in mind when he feels this war is about preserving Russia as a world power. Backhmut has maybe fallen, so maybe no end insight for this conflict anytime soon

 

[raymondo]

I hadn’t dabbled for a few months, but went down the war videos rabbit hole the other evening … Wagner murderers taking big losses. Just flesh n bone too when it comes to snipers and drones.

Yes, I can't read in depth daily (too emotional), but watch twitter feeds and too have read about the Wagner losses often with little vehicle protection.

 

[SeagullinExile]

In WW2 The Soviet Union lost about 26 Million people, but were the deciding factor in defeating the NAZIS
No doubt Putin has this in mind when he feels this war is about preserving Russia as a world power. Backhmut has maybe fallen, so maybe no end insight for this conflict anytime soon

Backhmut has little or no strategic value. It’s a symbolic and costly folly taking it. Hence the massive daily losses.

 

[Weststander]

In WW2 The Soviet Union lost about 26 Million people, but were the deciding factor in defeating the NAZIS
No doubt Putin has this in mind when he feels this war is about preserving Russia as a world power. Backhmut has maybe fallen, so maybe no end insight for this conflict anytime soon

It’s a long one. Putin doesn’t care about Russian lives, 1.25m lost to pandemic causes, over 100,000 in Ukraine.

Their hardware losses in this are eye watering, he’s successfully downgrading their military capabilities. He arrogantly prejudged that the west wouldn’t step in (Poland, Germany, France and Italy scared of no gas), that it would be just another Crimea, South Ossetia or Chechnya.

The USSR had vital support during WW2 eg key military components and supplies via Arctic convoys, as well as the huge distractions of the battles for North Africa and Italy.

 

[raymondo]

In WW2 The Soviet Union lost about 26 Million people, but were the deciding factor in defeating the NAZIS
No doubt Putin has this in mind when he feels this war is about preserving Russia as a world power. Backhmut has maybe fallen, so maybe no end insight for this conflict anytime soon

Yes, true...but I believe Bakhmut isn't particularly strategic, more of an empty trophy for the Russians (and Wagner).
No end in sight for a very long time IMO ;(

 

[raymondo]

Russia have no idea what they are going into with a second wave. They will be obliterated.

I think the Russian colonels/majors or whatever are not brave enough to tell Putin this difficult news. Typical behaviour of a country lead by a strongarm dictator.

 

[driddles]

You could look at it another way to be fair. Why let Ivan know that you know where they’re amassing troops by releasing pictures?...

I did say images were inevitably released by news agencies, but I should add that a lot of images/videos I saw early on were cellphone shots on Reddit taken by Ukrainians & Russians as the tank trains etc.. rolled through their villages. Tanks don't move stealthily through town, people get excited and take photos, I haven't seen anything like that at this time.

 

[peterward]

Exactly.

Western satellites and other spy technology will know all they need to. Don’t reveal to the enemy and never reveal how good your spy technology is.

At the beginning, before Putins full invasion last February, the US intelligence about what was going to happen and when, was extremely concise and correct.

I reckon there's probably moles at the top of the intelligence services.

 

[raymondo]

Many deliveries, large and small, need to continue weekly to support Ukraine.

First batch of Lithuanian anti-aircraft guns L-70 arrives in Ukraine

Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas said on Feb. 11 that the first batch of L-70 anti-aircraft guns and ammunition, “which will help defend critical infrastructure,” has already arrived in Ukraine. Anusauskas didn't specify the number of equipment delivered. Lithuania announced

kyivindependent.com

 

[raymondo]

At the beginning, before Putins full invasion last February, the US intelligence about what was going to happen and when, was extremely concise and correct.

I reckon there's probably moles at the top of the intelligence services.

It was incredibly spot on

 

[vegster]

At the beginning, before Putins full invasion last February, the US intelligence about what was going to happen and when, was extremely concise and correct.

I reckon there's probably moles at the top of the intelligence services.

Since the initial conflict started there are probably so many US/NATO satellites watching Eastern Ukraine that I'm sure nothing escapes their notice. The talk of a huge second wave of Russian forces coming imminently is frankly ridiculous. They don't actually have the planes, tanks and troops, they don't have the ammo or the fuel and they don't have the tactics.

Currently they are throwing poorly trained lightly armed and equipped troops up against well fortified Ukrainian positions and are taking huge casualties. Russia is not going to suddenly come up with well supported combined arms operations and tactics ...the satellites are watching.

 

[sparkie]

There are reports that Russia are amassing hundreds of thousands of troops and thousands of tanks and armoured vehicles near the border, for a new offensive. That's quite a concern, but the fact is that Ukraine cannot afford to lose this war. Losing would be accepting Russian rule over Ukraine, with citizens raped, tourtured and murdered at will, so I can't imagine Ukraine ever giving up. As long as the West continue to help, Ukraine can defend themselves.

This is worth reading, from a man who knows his stuff, ignoring the glaring typo where he writes Russian forces instead of Ukrainian forces.

 

[jcdenton08]

This is worth reading, from a man who knows his stuff, ignoring the glaring typo where he writes Russian forces instead of Ukrainian forces.

Very insightful read - followed the guy’s blog.