[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[portslade seagull]

Keep on hitting them Ukraine

 

[Eric the meek]

Thanks for the excellent updates @raymondo.

I'm not sure who is responsible for the Moscow shopping mall. Without further evidence, my untrained eye would suggest the following, in descending order of likelihood - a Ukrainian operation on a fuel dump, a Putin/FSB false flag operation, Russian power struggle, a genuine accident complete with explosions in sequence.

But the attacks on Russian bombers and fuel dumps inside Russia, are pretty clear. Ukraine are taking the war to Russia, targeting valid military targets, including infrastructure.

Next stop Crimea. First the airfields. Maybe leave the Kerch bridge alone for now to enable any Russians who are not up for the fight, to flee eastward to the motherland.

But once satellite imagery shows the rail link on the Kerch bridge has been repaired, (and can be used to resupply Russian troops in Crimea), who knows?

 

[raymondo]

Thanks for the excellent updates @raymondo.

I'm not sure who is responsible for the Moscow shopping mall. Without further evidence, my untrained eye would suggest the following, in descending order of likelihood - a Ukrainian operation on a fuel dump, a Putin/FSB false flag operation, Russian power struggle, a genuine accident complete with explosions in sequence.

But the attacks on Russian bombers and fuel dumps inside Russia, are pretty clear. Ukraine are taking the war to Russia, targeting valid military targets, including infrastructure.

Next stop Crimea. First the airfields. Maybe leave the Kerch bridge alone for now to enable any Russians who are not up for the fight, to flee eastward to the motherland.

But once satellite imagery shows the rail link on the Kerch bridge has been repaired, (and can be used to resupply Russian troops in Crimea), who knows?

Cheers @Eric the meek .
I agree with your possible cause list .
More activity in the early hours... Ukraine shelling military barracks in Melitopol. It's now on main news channels and in this article there is explanation (which we probably knew) of the strategic importance of Melitopol.

Ukrainian strike hits Russian barracks in occupied Melitopol

Complex reportedly struck by Himars rockets may have been a stronghold of Wagner mercenary group that fights for Kremlin

www.theguardian.com

 

[vegster]

Thanks for the excellent updates @raymondo.

I'm not sure who is responsible for the Moscow shopping mall. Without further evidence, my untrained eye would suggest the following, in descending order of likelihood - a Ukrainian operation on a fuel dump, a Putin/FSB false flag operation, Russian power struggle, a genuine accident complete with explosions in sequence.

But the attacks on Russian bombers and fuel dumps inside Russia, are pretty clear. Ukraine are taking the war to Russia, targeting valid military targets, including infrastructure.

Next stop Crimea. First the airfields. Maybe leave the Kerch bridge alone for now to enable any Russians who are not up for the fight, to flee eastward to the motherland.

But once satellite imagery shows the rail link on the Kerch bridge has been repaired, (and can be used to resupply Russian troops in Crimea), who knows?

I would expect the Ukrainians to hit multiple command and control points, fuel and ammo dumps and transport hubs and really turn the screw... when the Russians are fully stretched trying to supply their troops and at maximum stress then, take out the Kerch again.

​

 

[Eric the meek]

I thought the general consensus (or at least put out by the Pentagon and UK Ministry of Defence) was that the war would slow down for the winter?

I hope we in the west are not resorting to that nasty Russian habit of disinformation !

 

[raymondo]

I would expect the Ukrainians to hit multiple command and control points, fuel and ammo dumps and transport hubs and really turn the screw... when the Russians are fully stretched trying to supply their troops and at maximum stress then, take out the Kerch again.

​

Agreed, and hitting some military infrastructure within Russia, with drones, brings reality closer to the Russian population.

 

[GT49er]

Agreed, and hitting some military infrastructure within Russia, with drones, brings reality closer to the Russian population.

I think they would be quite justified in taking out some of Russia's electricity supply too. Power cuts in midwinter would make the war even more unpopular with the Russian public.

 

[Rugrat]

I think they would be quite justified in taking out some of Russia's electricity supply too. Power cuts in midwinter would make the war even more unpopular with the Russian public.

Or might increase resentment towards the Ukrainians and generate more patriotic support. It's a tricky one

 

[portlock seagull]

Agreed, and hitting some military infrastructure within Russia, with drones, brings reality closer to the Russian population.

If Times report true, interesting development. Amercia has played a blinder so far, restricting Ukraine to non retaliation on Russian soil strikes. Wonder why the relaxation now? Possibly winter fuel emergency in Ukraine and Europe, decided to fight fire with fire (not most appropriate phrase I know)?

 

[portlock seagull]

Or might increase resentment towards the Ukrainians and generate more patriotic support. It's a tricky one

Russians aren’t stupid. You can fool some of the people all the time…I think that times over, with mounting casualties and wider population engagement I’m sure the true situation is known amongst many if not discussed for fear of regime

 

[Eric the meek]

I meant to post this yesterday, but I got distracted by the football..

Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin says deal may be needed to end conflict as he admits mistakes were made over mobilisation

The Russian president suggested peace talks may be needed during a news conference in Kyrgyzstan on Friday.

news.sky.com

Is Russia's continuing lack of success forcing Putin to seek a deal to avoid a humiliating defeat?

If it were me, I'd string him along with false indications of the west wanting a deal and peace, while increasing the pressure with further attacks inside Russia.

 

[Triggaaar]

If Times report true, interesting development. Amercia has played a blinder so far, restricting Ukraine to non retaliation on Russian soil strikes. Wonder why the relaxation now?

I think in the early part of the war Russia was advancing across Ukraine and had at least some pretence of attacking military targets. As Russia have been forced out of the majority of Ukraine, their bombing of civilian infrastructure deep into Ukraine in order to starve civilians of power in winter is obvious to even pro Russian types, and it's not sustainable to allow it to continue with no fight back from Ukraine.

 

[raymondo]

I think they would be quite justified in taking out some of Russia's electricity supply too. Power cuts in midwinter would make the war even more unpopular with the Russian public.

Absolutely. I don't think Ukraine would hit Russian residential intentionally (unlike the Russian military...) but electric and gas supply are definitely legitimate targets

 

[raymondo]

I meant to post this yesterday, but I got distracted by the football..

Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin says deal may be needed to end conflict as he admits mistakes were made over mobilisation

The Russian president suggested peace talks may be needed during a news conference in Kyrgyzstan on Friday.

news.sky.com

Is Russia's continuing lack of success forcing Putin to seek a deal to avoid a humiliating defeat?

If it were me, I'd string him along with false indications of the west wanting a deal and peace, while increasing the pressure with further attacks inside Russia.

Yes, he'd love to freeze the current gains within a peace deal...it isn''t going to happen.

 

[raymondo]

If Times report true, interesting development. Amercia has played a blinder so far, restricting Ukraine to non retaliation on Russian soil strikes. Wonder why the relaxation now? Possibly winter fuel emergency in Ukraine and Europe, decided to fight fire with fire (not most appropriate phrase I know)?

I still don't think the US will let Ukraine use HIMARS to hit inside Russia, but drone usage will be encouraged IMO.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes, he'd love to freeze the current gains within a peace deal...it isn''t going to happen.

Indeed.

He invades a peaceful, independent sovereign country, killing tens of thousands, causes a refugee crisis, commits atrocities, including torture, rape and abduction of children, weaponises energy, bombs civilian infrastructure to terrorise the population, and when it becomes clear that the invaded country is impossible for him to conquer, he issues a 'we are ready for agreements' speech. In the speech, he says it will be difficult as his level of trust in western nations is near to zero, asks what would he negotiate, asks where is the guarantee, and it 'makes him think who he is dealing with'.

It is beyond ridiculous. The man lives in a parallel universe.

 

[Rugrat]

Not stupid but most are starved of the truth and the Russian propoganda machine is working flat out to keep it that way. Their culture is all about conformity and the state controls not only what they do but how they think. Everything I have read suggests that they broadly support what's going on, quite likely because they have no other choice, but they do.

Expecting any change in Putin's thinking as a result of internal disapproval hasn't got a prayer imo. Nor will there be sufficient numbers of dissenters to be anything other than a minor irritation

I hope I'm wrong ofc

 

[sparkie]

I meant to post this yesterday, but I got distracted by the football..

Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin says deal may be needed to end conflict as he admits mistakes were made over mobilisation

The Russian president suggested peace talks may be needed during a news conference in Kyrgyzstan on Friday.

news.sky.com

Is Russia's continuing lack of success forcing Putin to seek a deal to avoid a humiliating defeat?

If it were me, I'd string him along with false indications of the west wanting a deal and peace, while increasing the pressure with further attacks inside Russia.

No deal is possible with Putin because he'll just break it after he has re-armed, and invade again.

So this has to be understood by all parties, and any "deal" just seen as a pause.

So a solution to this situation needs to be found. Instant Ukraine NATO membership would seem to be a good first step along with permanent NATO deployment in Ukraine.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

I thought the general consensus (or at least put out by the Pentagon and UK Ministry of Defence) was that the war would slow down for the winter?

I hope we in the west are not resorting to that nasty Russian habit of disinformation !

Ground forces yes. many moons ago I spent a January in the artic playing at solders. Even with training provided by the the Royal Marines it was incredibly difficult. Fighting a ground war in the snow is not for the faint hearted.

Himars and long range rockets aren’t a problem. You park up, fire off and then nip home for a cup of tea.

 

[SeagullinExile]

I thought the general consensus (or at least put out by the Pentagon and UK Ministry of Defence) was that the war would slow down for the winter?

I hope we in the west are not resorting to that nasty Russian habit of disinformation !

We’ve always used disinformation, it’s a standard tool of any war, for both sides.