[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[rippleman]

No it doesn’t . What it shows is the movement of untrained and ill equipped canon fodder to the front line which is a disaster. A proper mobalisation would have included at least some basic trading (6 weeks) prior to being sacrificed on the front line.

Well, yes.

Except Stalin used precisely the same tactics when the nazis invaded. He had such massive reserves of manpower that he conscripted millions as canon fodder and that, together with his movement of munitions production lines to the other side of the Urals, resulted in victory. The overwhelming majority were poorly trained and poorly equipped, there were just so many of them.

Putin can afford to waste millions of lives in his quest for victory. Don't under-estimate the human resources that Putin has at his (literal) disposal.

 

[jakarta]

Unlike Vlad, Stalin didn't have a cohort of mostly literate young men with access to social media.

Hence their flight to the borders which, if it had happened in 1941, would have been accompanied by a short & sharp encounter with the NKVD.

Think Putin has a lot less 'at his disposal' than we thought. Whether that makes him more or less dangerous is a different matter of course...

 

[Weststander]

Well, yes.

Except Stalin used precisely the same tactics when the nazis invaded. He had such massive reserves of manpower that he conscripted millions as canon fodder and that, together with his movement of munitions production lines to the other side of the Urals, resulted in victory. The overwhelming majority were poorly trained and poorly equipped, there were just so many of them.

Putin can afford to waste millions of lives in his quest for victory. Don't under-estimate the human resources that Putin has at his (literal) disposal.

The 1,500 factories moved to east of the Urals were supplied by key components from the Allies. Enabling them to compete against Nazi Germany with vital planes, tanks and rockets. They'd have been stuffed without that help and that hardware.

Stalin effectively murdered 10m's of Soviets. In a social media and media age, Putin would be wiped out by people on the inside if he allowed unprotected 100,000's to die going 'over the top' without air cover or tanks.

 

[raymondo]

So there is now a theory that Putin has sent 9000 troops to Belarus so that well connected Russians can arrange for relatives to be posted to these "safe" battalions and stay out of the war.

It wouldn't surprise me, and probably costs a fair few rubles to swing a posting to Belarus.

Let's hope there's a violent revolution in Belarus soon then

 

[Eric the meek]

Let's hope there's a violent revolution in Belarus soon then

Indeed.

Apologies for the digression, but I read somewhere recently (unfortunately I can't find it now), that there is/was unrest in Chechnya and with a weakened Russia otherwise occupied in Ukraine, a possible civil war looming.

Another one to keep an eye on.

 

[raymondo]

Indeed.

Apologies for the digression, but I read somewhere recently (unfortunately I can't find it now), that there is/was unrest in Chechnya and with a weakened Russia otherwise occupied in Ukraine, a possible civil war looming.

Another one to keep an eye on.

Yes, I read similar somewhere. I've also read conflicting stories about their president, Ramzan Kadyrov: one saying he's Putin's bull dog, providing some key fighters to the Russian 'cause' in Ukraine; another saying he's actually positioning himself (as in, he has frequently criticised the poor performance of the Russian commanders in Ukraine) as a visible, powerful regional leader...so he'd be in pole position to take a chunk of the spoils if Russia implodes and Putin is no more. A possible defeat causing break up of Russia has been suggested by more than one military analyst.
Anyway, the situation is 'interesting' in a dispassionate sense, and I try to follow all the permutations, but the daily horrors perpetrated by Russia often drown out the thinking I'm afraid.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes, I read similar somewhere. I've also read conflicting stories about their president, Ramzan Kadyrov: one saying he's Putin's bull dog, providing some key fighters to the Russian 'cause' in Ukraine; another saying he's actually positioning himself (as in, he has frequently criticised the poor performance of the Russian commanders in Ukraine) as a visible, powerful regional leader...so he'd be in pole position to take a chunk of the spoils if Russia implodes and Putin is no more. A possible defeat causing break up of Russia has been suggested by more than one military analyst.
Anyway, the situation is 'interesting' in a dispassionate sense, and I try to follow all the permutations, but the daily horrors perpetrated by Russia often drown out the thinking I'm afraid.

I think the whole of the Caucasus is a bit of a tinderbox to be honest, both inside and outside Russia. Putin has mostly kept a lid on it of sorts in the past, but now that Russia is weakened, one Georgian journalist is predicting ethnic wars in the region, not necessarily just against Russia, but also against each other.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Well, yes.

Except Stalin used precisely the same tactics when the nazis invaded. He had such massive reserves of manpower that he conscripted millions as canon fodder and that, together with his movement of munitions production lines to the other side of the Urals, resulted in victory. The overwhelming majority were poorly trained and poorly equipped, there were just so many of them.

Putin can afford to waste millions of lives in his quest for victory. Don't under-estimate the human resources that Putin has at his (literal) disposal.

Artillery etc is a lot more advanced than WWII. it was very much a case of getting it into the rough area of where the troops were and hope for the best. As we have seen the latest technology can drop a shed load of ordnance in a very small area with a high degree of accuracy. Stalin used high concentration of troops which is only effective if you can get up close and personal. It doesn’t matter how fanatical someone is, being hit with unnerving accuracy will very much focus the mind and severely hinder such an approach. Finally, the average Russian soldier of WWII was fighting for his very existence which is not the case now regardless of what Putin says.

 

[jakarta]

Hang on, evacuating places means you are losing, shirley shome mishtake?

Ukraine war: Russians start leaving Ukraine's Kherson city

Russian-appointed officials say staff and civilians will leave Kherson city because of Ukraine's offensive.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[raymondo]

Hang on, evacuating places means you are losing, shirley shome mishtake?

Ukraine war: Russians start leaving Ukraine's Kherson city

Russian-appointed officials say staff and civilians will leave Kherson city because of Ukraine's offensive.

www.bbc.co.uk

I think their evacuation plans mean deportation

 

[A1X]

They’re “evacuating” Kherson in the same way the Nazis “evacuated” Warsaw in 1944.

 

[GT49er]

They’re “evacuating” Kherson in the same way the Nazis “evacuated” Warsaw in 1944.

Are they evacuating the real residents of Kherson, or just getting out the Russian plants that Putin put there to stir up unrest and make a lot of noise about wanting to be part of Russia (they might not be the most popular dudes in town once the Ukrainians are rightly in charge again)?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Are they evacuating the real residents of Kherson, or just getting out the Russian plants that Putin put there to stir up unrest and make a lot of noise about wanting to be part of Russia (they might not be the most popular dudes in town once the Ukrainians are rightly in charge again)?

They are ethnic cleansing. They want 100'000's hostages for the negotiations to come. They will denude Ukraine of it's women and children, who'll probably be kept alive in Russia and the men who won't. Only the elderly will be left behind

 

[raymondo]

They are ethnic cleansing. They want 100'000's hostages for the negotiations to come. They will denude Ukraine of it's women and children, who'll probably be kept alive in Russia and the men who won't. Only the elderly will be left behind

Yes, they will no doubt do some of that. Hopefully the Ukrainian army will move quickly and the Russian military will panic and get out fast...but there's always danger they will murder as many Ukrainian citizens as they can (as in Bucha before). Ukrainian military and media currently have a blackout on current details of their moves...keep your fingers crossed everyone.

I found this extract from the article particularly interesting:
"Russian TV footage on Wednesday showed a number of people gathering near the west bank of the Dnieper. As they queued for boats, it was not clear how many were leaving.
But Ukrainian officials have questioned whether large numbers of people are actually being evacuated, suggesting that images of a crowd assembled by the river are largely for show.
Serhiy Khlan, an aide to the ousted head of the Kherson region, suggested the "deportations theatre" could be acting as cover for a much bigger Russian move: a complete military evacuation from the west bank of the river.
"I foresee the withdrawal of troops," he said, adding that he expected Russian forces to attempt to destroy the city after leaving.
Russia, he said, was planning to establish a new capital for the Kherson region at Henichesk, close to the Crimean Peninsula, adding that banks and offices related to the occupation of Kherson had already been evacuated.
One Kherson resident told the BBC's World Service that she was not going anywhere until Kherson was liberated by Ukrainian troops: "People are not panicking, nobody wants to be evacuated."
She said that Russian soldiers were now worried how they could survive in the city. "There are plenty of them here; they are dressed as civilians. We can see them - they are different to Kherson people. They walk in groups, their hair is cut short, they are dressed mainly in black."
Ukrainian officials have warned that this might represent the start of a forcible deportation to Russia."

 

[Weststander]

Kherson was a city of 290,000.

Its 55,000 Russian invaders and pro-Putin Ukrainian traitors are being evacuated across the Dnipro River.

Revealing imho the true demographics. It’s Ukrainian in every way.

 

[raymondo]

Kherson was a city of 290,000.

Its 55,000 Russian invaders and pro-Putin Ukrainian traitors are being evacuated across the Dnipro River.

Revealing imho the true demographics. It’s Ukrainian in every way.

Hi @Weststander I'm interested in where you read the 55,000 Russian invaders? I don't disbelieve you, rather I'm interested in news feeds that I haven't noticed myself. Cheers

 

[Weststander]

Hi @Weststander I'm interested in where you read the 55,000 Russian invaders? I don't disbelieve you, rather I'm interested in news feeds that I haven't noticed myself. Cheers

Hi, sorry, I meant the Russian administration and settlers brought in post invasion AND the minority of the original population who are pro Putin’s theft/genocide.

The latter having to leave too, fearing reprisals for the genocide and rapes.

 

[raymondo]

Hi, sorry, I meant the Russian administration and settlers brought in post invasion AND the minority of the original population who are pro Putin’s theft/genocide.

The latter having to leave too, fearing reprisals for the genocide and rapes.

Aah ok, thanks for clarifying. And where was the 55,000 quoted...sorry, it sounds like I'm interrogating ...I'm genuinely interested in the source of the number! Cheers

 

[Weststander]

Aah ok, thanks for clarifying. And where was the 55,000 quoted...sorry, it sounds like I'm interrogating ...I'm genuinely interested in the source of the number! Cheers

No problem, I knew from all your posts here that you’re always kind spirited!

Putin brought in Russian levels of administration and settlors, selling it as won back Russian lands, theirs forever.

 

[raymondo]

No problem, I knew from all your posts here that you’re always kind spirited!

Putin brought in Russian levels of administration and settlors, selling it as won back Russian lands, theirs forever.

Let's hope the administrators and settlors are sh*t scared. Have just PM'd you