[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[GT49er]

Try and stay positive, the Ukrainians are.

Posting doom and gloom stuff, serves no purpose. We knew Putin doesn’t value life at home or abroad, he’s a murderer, but if you listen to the overwhelming majority of genuine military analysts this war is wiping out decades worth of Russian capability, they’re starved of Western technology to complete manufacture of key missiles and the US/UK/Germany have only just begun delivering incredible technologies that will wipe Russian/Iranian drones, missiles and aircraft from the skies.

I'm not spreading doom and gloom. I'm posing a question - is their a limit to the amount of murder of women and children and total destruction of homes and infrastructure that can be acceted patiently while waiting for the Russians to give up and go home?

 

[Weststander]

I'm not spreading doom and gloom. I'm posing a question - is their a limit to the amount of murder of women and children and total destruction of homes and infrastructure that can be acceted patiently while waiting for the Russians to give up and go home?

I really like your nsc presence and posts, but in the last couple of days in this thread you sound down, you can see no hope.

War/genocide is awful, but I'm looking for the positives, I think there are several worth hanging onto.

 

[Icy Gull]

Not sure if this has already been posted but it would explain the increase in attacks on civilians and Kyiv, so not just retaliation for the bridge incident.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...sedgntp&cvid=377534e6be8a415a982e5fe034d0ed77

 

[sparkie]

Not sure if this has already been posted but it would explain the increase in attacks on civilians and Kyiv, so not just retaliation for the bridge incident.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...sedgntp&cvid=377534e6be8a415a982e5fe034d0ed77

Indeed.

I imagine he is HIMARS target #1. If he gets too arrogant and let's his guard down maybe he'll be "retired" at some point soon.

Unless he stays in his bunker.

 

[sparkie]

I have started to think about "if I was Putin, how would I get out of this mess".

Of course, Putin is not told how badly his war is going, so he doesn't have the real info to base his decisions on.

But I come back to my question, and I can't see the answer. The best I can do is get his new mobliks to built massive fortifications on the entrance to Crimea, fortify the defensive line around the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, fall back to these lines and then work out what to do from there. Not really a plan.

 

[rogersix]

I have started to think about "if I was Putin, how would I get out of this mess".

Of course, Putin is not told how badly his war is going, so he doesn't have the real info to base his decisions on.

But I come back to my question, and I can't see the answer. The best I can do is get his new mobliks to built massive fortifications on the entrance to Crimea, fortify the defensive line around the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, fall back to these lines and then work out what to do from there. Not really a plan.

but it is a plan, is he the criminal mastermind? as he appears to be waiting for devine intervention

 

[wellquickwoody]

Any real need for that condescending post ?

Yes.

Maybe came across a little harsher than intended, but it is all so easy just to say ‘how long will the west let Putin keep on murdering people?’.

I’m sure every sensible minded person wants the killing to stop, wants Putin to be stopped, and wants a return to peace. I’m sure that Truss, Biden, Macron, Merkel etc are all wondering how to achieve it. There are no doubt thousands of people across Europe and the rest of the world working out how to slow Putin and his rag tag army, whether by diplomacy, supplying Ukraine with weapons, modelling likely outcomes of each action, balancing hope against probability, attempting to get the pariah states to switch sides, all the time with an eye on whether the poison dwarf will lose his s##t and cause mankind to be wiped from the face of the earth.

It cannot be solved with a quick and lazy question like the one posed.

 

[Commander]

I have started to think about "if I was Putin, how would I get out of this mess".

Of course, Putin is not told how badly his war is going, so he doesn't have the real info to base his decisions on.

I keep reading this about Putin not knowing how badly the war is going. But if we know, surely he does? I can't believe that the Prime Minister of Russia doesn't have access to international media, regardless of what his Generals tell him.

 

[Eric the meek]

I have started to think about "if I was Putin, how would I get out of this mess".

Of course, Putin is not told how badly his war is going, so he doesn't have the real info to base his decisions on.

But I come back to my question, and I can't see the answer. The best I can do is get his new mobliks to built massive fortifications on the entrance to Crimea, fortify the defensive line around the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, fall back to these lines and then work out what to do from there. Not really a plan.

It could be a better plan than you think.

What it would do is buy him time. Time to regroup, train the newly mobilised troops, strong-arm Lukashenko and other satellite states into providing more troops, give himself time to improve logistics, manufacture more weapons, re-arm, hope the coming winter divides opinion in Europe, use cyber warfare to foment concern in the west over the cost of sending weapons to Ukraine etc.

Time is his friend.

 

[Theatre of Trees]

I keep reading this about Putin not knowing how badly the war is going. But if we know, surely he does? I can't believe that the Prime Minister of Russia doesn't have access to international media, regardless of what his Generals tell him.

The problem he has is one all ruthless long time authoritarian leaders have - you remove those who disagree with or question your decisions and are left with those who will just tell you what you want to hear. Information becomes highly filtered because nobody wants to be the bearer of bad tidings.

And if the enemy media is saying things in the mind of the dictator they are saying things to discredit the country he is running because that is what they would do.

 

[Weststander]

I keep reading this about Putin not knowing how badly the war is going. But if we know, surely he does? I can't believe that the Prime Minister of Russia doesn't have access to international media, regardless of what his Generals tell him.

 

[Commander]

The access to information was completely different then. Putin must be able to access Western Media. I can't believe he doesn't look at it.

 

[Weststander]

The access to information was completely different then. Putin must be able to access Western Media. I can't believe he doesn't look at it.

Perhaps he has my mindset in reverse.

When nsc'ers provide links to Russian 'information', I complete dismiss it.

 

[Theatre of Trees]

The access to information was completely different then. Putin must be able to access Western Media. I can't believe he doesn't look at it.

You have to remember Putin is a product of the KGB and the secret police apparatus. He will have access to all Western media but will apply the mind of the secret police state to all information from the West, so that the meaning behind the words become more important than just the words themselves. Putin's view is the world is out to get Russia and thus any information from the West will always go through this filter.

 

[sparkie]

Looks like Germany is sending some decent air defence to Ukraine.

[Tweet]1579802500487839744[/Tweet]


They pretty much had to do something after their consulate building in Kyiv was hit yesterday.

 

[A1X]

The problem he has is one all ruthless long time authoritarian leaders have - you remove those who disagree with or question your decisions and are left with those who will just tell you what you want to hear. Information becomes highly filtered because nobody wants to be the bearer of bad tidings.

And if the enemy media is saying things in the mind of the dictator they are saying things to discredit the country he is running because that is what they would do.

You also have the scenario where those same people who tell you what you want to hear start plotting behind your back. When people criticise you in public, that concern doesn't exist as dissent can happen in the open (as happens in any democracy). But if you purge those who criticise you in public, you don't stop the criticism, you just drive it underground. And that's more dangerous as the more you double-down, the worse it gets, and before long you're hanging upside down from a lamppost like Mussolini.

 

[Baldseagull]

Weren't they on munition dumps or army command posts and the like? As opposed to hospitals and childrens' playgrounds?

Yes, on fuel depot, and another one today on power plant. The point I was making was that there have been attacks from Ukraine on Russian soil. Civilians have died, but were not the targets.

 

[Baldseagull]

interesting observation made that the Kerch bridge lorry-bomb was travelling from Russia to Crimea.

Quite a bit of conspiracy theory thoughts about on the Bridge bomb. Some saying the bridge would have needed a blast from below to sustain the damage it did. Some say the train sat atop the bridge for a long time going nowhere before the blast. A 4th casualty named today was a Judge, considered independent and with a case coming before him where one of Khadryovs daughters was the defendant, and cases against Gazprom. Some suggesting the attack was designed by internal parties to provoke Putin to escalate. Some suggesting bridge bombing entirely just to justify taking out power supplies in Ulraine ahead of winter. The Lorry is looking less likely as the source of the explosion though, it had to pass through a scanning area and other security checks, and it was rather quickly after the explosion being reported to be the source.

 

[Mellotron]

[TWEET]1579796227792998400[/TWEET]

In Russia’s interest to keep making it about them vs “the West”, rather than Ukraine.

 

[sparkie]

[TWEET]1579796227792998400[/TWEET]

Putin needs to stop firing missiles before he even contemplates asking for peace talks doesn't he ?