[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[pb21]

Biden did threaten that Nord Stream 2 ‘would no longer exist’ if Russian invaded Ukraine, back in Feb…

True, but they didn't say anything about NS1, and I doubt they would unilaterally sabotage infrastructure in Europe.

 

[A1X]

 

[Eric the meek]

[tweet]1574758898086694912[/tweet]

'An expeditionary detachment of US Navy ships led by the universal amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge days ago was in the Baltic Sea
It was 30 km from the site of the alleged sabotage on the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline and 50 km from the threads of Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline'

So what?

Putin has just threatened the world with nuclear war. Of course many US vessels have been in the Baltic. Why wouldn't they be there?

 

[beorhthelm]

Biden did threaten that Nord Stream 2 ‘would no longer exist’ if Russian invaded Ukraine, back in Feb…

and a very peculiar thing to say. Nord Stream pipelines do not pose any threat to anyone, if Germany want to stop taking gas they simply stop. only motivation is to force it stop being used, seems a weird play even from Russia. they could just stop sending gas too, or have a technical fault as currently in NS1. though its hard to see both pipelines falling victim to some accident.

 

[beorhthelm]

for info, earliest reference can find now to "pressure drop" in Nord Stream is about 1:30pm yesturday.

there's a news article from Monday evening that phrases it as overnight too. then report of some explosion, but this only appears Monday evening.

also a seismic report in the area, in the evening https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/ea.../mag2quake-Sep-26-2022-Sweden-BALTIC-SEA.html

finally there was a report of a US subhunter doing circles off Kalingrad, dont remember if that was Sunday or Monday.

 

[Baldseagull]

would offer that implication of interference does the job for Russians, keeping things stirred up and unsettled.

A fair point, does some of the job, but I think they wanted the result of UK leaving EU, weakens both entities and I believe it is EU expansion that Putin fears, he doesn't want a prosperous and non dependent state on his doorstep, Russians might start wanting a better life.

 

[Baldseagull]

I don't think you are paying attention!! Once all the Ukraine occupied territory has "voted" (I use the term lightly) to be Russian, any invasion of these (Ukrainian) areas will be an invasion of Russia according to the nutters running the country. That will be the trigger to "threatening the existence of our state"

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...sedgntp&cvid=a420fc6653d84d898cf3aca0674cc00f

They declared in 2014 that Crimea is part of Russia, Ukraine has destroyed airfields there recently, Russia says it was someone smoking somewhere they shouldn't have been. If they wanted an excuse to go harder against Ukraine, they could have used that instance, or the attacks on Belgorod in undisputed Russian territory.
I don't think the reason for the referendums is to claim attacks against Russia, I think it might be to mobilise the men in those areas into Russian Forces. Ukrainians will be less eager to attack and kill Russian Forces if they think their countrymen have been pressed into service and are stood amongst the Russians. It could be to show Russians at home that there is a population that wants to be liberated from Ukraine and join Russian Federation. It could be to impose taxes and run businesses there without it being clear theft.

 

[beorhthelm]

to correct my view on the mobilisation, does indeed appear to be any one getting conscripted. theory is the local commanders given quotas, instead of following the stated rules and law for reservists. so they are rounding up anyone. yet to be seen how much training but looking like shorter than is sensible. still bit sceptical how any army would think this a good plan, they'll just melt at first contact wasting the effort of getting them to the front.

 

[trueblue]

and a very peculiar thing to say. Nord Stream pipelines do not pose any threat to anyone, if Germany want to stop taking gas they simply stop. only motivation is to force it stop being used, seems a weird play even from Russia. they could just stop sending gas too, or have a technical fault as currently in NS1. though its hard to see both pipelines falling victim to some accident.

Extrapolating wildly but the US has been very strong so far in backing Europe against Russia. There has been much speculation that when winter bites, Europe's united front against purchasing Russian gas will become very difficult to maintain as public unrest rises and Putin will have the funds for his war. So maybe making sure Russian gas supplies are not an option would be useful to the Americans? I find it hard to believe they'd create that situation but nothing seems impossible any more.

 

[Triggaaar]

They declared in 2014 that Crimea is part of Russia, Ukraine has destroyed airfields there recently, Russia says it was someone smoking somewhere they shouldn't have been. If they wanted an excuse to go harder against Ukraine, they could have used that instance, or the attacks on Belgorod in undisputed Russian territory.

Indeed.

I don't think the reason for the referendums is to claim attacks against Russia, I think it might be to mobilise the men in those areas into Russian Forces. Ukrainians will be less eager to attack and kill Russian Forces if they think their countrymen have been pressed into service and are stood amongst the Russians.

Nah, I can't see that. Military aged men there that wanted to fight for Ukraine should have already been signed up. The Ukrainian army will obviously shoot anyone proposing to be a Russian soldier. And if the Russians forcibly enlist pro Ukrainians, then they're even more stupid, because they'll end up shooting Russians.

I don't particularly know the reasons. Maybe a combination of things, including being desperate because they're losing.

 

[trueblue]

Extrapolating wildly but the US has been very strong so far in backing Europe against Russia. There has been much speculation that when winter bites, Europe's united front against purchasing Russian gas will become very difficult to maintain as public unrest rises and Putin will have the funds for his war. So maybe making sure Russian gas supplies are not an option would be useful to the Americans? I find it hard to believe they'd create that situation but nothing seems impossible any more.

Of course, on the flip side of that argument, if the Americans were found to have done this it’s not going to go down very well in Europe! So it would be a ridiculously risky strategy.

 

[Icy Gull]

Zelensky being clever here? If there is unrest in the Kremlin it's a nice little nudge to Russia that this war will likely not end whilst Putin is in power?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...sedgntp&cvid=08e00835e97143578f43ddef9301f46f

 

[SeagullinExile]

Of course, on the flip side of that argument, if the Americans were found to have done this it’s not going to go down very well in Europe! So it would be a ridiculously risky strategy.

Like Russia, they do have a bit of history regarding false flags - Gulf of Tonkin, Operation Northwoods (thankfully the latter was never put into action, but it does show willing)

Not sure it’s likely in this instance though. But who knows

 

[Baldseagull]

Of course, on the flip side of that argument, if the Americans were found to have done this it’s not going to go down very well in Europe! So it would be a ridiculously risky strategy.

I think European Governments have just had their minds focused on finding an alternative to Russian Gas, no point anyone trying to argue an end to sanctions on the basis of getting the gas turned back on now. Maybe later there could be some recriminations, but right now the focus will be on finding a solution for energy that does not involve Russia.

 

[Baldseagull]

Zelensky being clever here? If there is unrest in the Kremlin it's a nice little nudge to Russia that this war will likely not end whilst Putin is in power?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...sedgntp&cvid=08e00835e97143578f43ddef9301f46f

I thought this was already obvious, but probably useful to state it explicitly. There is just no way anyone could have faith in any agreement signed by Putin.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

for info, earliest reference can find now to "pressure drop" in Nord Stream is about 1:30pm yesturday.

there's a news article from Monday evening that phrases it as overnight too. then report of some explosion, but this only appears Monday evening.

also a seismic report in the area, in the evening https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/ea.../mag2quake-Sep-26-2022-Sweden-BALTIC-SEA.html

finally there was a report of a US subhunter doing circles off Kalingrad, dont remember if that was Sunday or Monday.

Denmark & Sweden are saying Russia did it. The obvious culprit in the Nord Stream explosions appears to be GUGI (Glavnoe Upravlenie Glubokikh Issledovanii) in St. Petersburg, which has mini-subs (known from Soviet submarine incursions into Sweden).

These explosions suggest that Russia is spreading the war, but just to the border of NATO (Denmark) and soon to be NATO (Sweden).
This operation spreads fear that other cables and pipelines will be blown up as well. The Norwegian-Polish gas pipeline opened yesterday...

[tweet]1575021856876220416[/tweet]

Thread
https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1575021856876220416

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Someone correct my thought processes here, but doesn't the destruction of oil pipelines harm the Russian. war effort?

Surely their best chance is that European public support for Ukraine evaporates in the midst of a freezing winter and one by one renege on sanctions promises and take gas through the pipeline, thus providing the money to support the military effort of mobilising so many people.

Without the possibility of Russian gas, the political will to renege on sanctions evaporates as it has become impossible to get?

 

[carlzeiss]

Wouldn't it have been easier for the Russians to have just turned the supply off rather than blow up the pipelines ?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Wouldn't it have been easier for the Russians to have just turned the supply off rather than blow up the pipelines ?

Yeh, something doesn't add up

 

[Triggaaar]

Someone correct my thought processes here, but doesn't the destruction of oil pipelines harm the Russian. war effort?

Well if Russia are shooting themselves in the foot, it wouldn't be the first time.

Surely their best chance is that European public support for Ukraine evaporates in the midst of a freezing winter and one by one renege on sanctions promises and take gas through the pipeline, thus providing the money to support the military effort of mobilising so many people.

Without the possibility of Russian gas, the political will to renege on sanctions evaporates as it has become impossible to get?

If some countries tried to get gas from Russia, would that be enough to make a difference to their war effort? I suspect not. So perhaps it simply is a warning of what they're capable of doing. I really have no idea though, Russia's leadership are a basket case.