[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Rowdey]

Are the Ukranians now trying to take back towns previously lost to the Russians

Oh yes indeedy.. They've got a a lot of RU cornered into Kherson and RU has been sending battalions as back up (from Donestk area) but UKR has been targeting supplies/dump/trains of ammo and fuel.. so they are stuck there with limited supplies to get themselves back out again..

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

That aint no accident, Sergey.

[Tweet]1557004542411243522[/Tweet]


[Tweet]1556996656079507456[/Tweet]

 

[portslade seagull]

Such a shame, keep it up Ukraine

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Russians in Crimea sodding off back to Russia :

[Tweet]1557026534635995139[/Tweet]

[Tweet]1557012792338976768[/Tweet]

That Kerch Bridge isn't going to last forever.

 

[Baldseagull]

Are the Ukranians now trying to take back towns previously lost to the Russians

There is a to and fro north of Kharkiv, Russia advances, Ukraine pushes them back. Russian forces are massing over the border around Belgorod but it's still thought not in sufficient numbers to take Kharkiv. Ukraine regaining some ground south of Izum. Russia making slow gains in the east, nothing being regained by Ukraine in that area. Ukraine making small gains in the south, but also have restricted the supply lines of Russia north of the Dnieper dam, and will likely push for Kherson later this month.

You can see the lines of Russian control and areas regained with this map, you can go back in time and see the changes day by day.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#
On the lower left is fire detection, not all are missile strikes, some wildfires, but the grouped ones tell a tale. On the bottom right clock symbol, allows you to go backwards and forwards on the days to see what has changed. Red areas are under Russian control, Green are Ukraine regained areas, blue areas are recently Ukraine regained, grey areas are contested.

Intercepted calls between Russian forces and family suggest some Russian forces are raping and thieving whilst stationed in Belgorod, inside Russia, local residents not happy with far eastern forces that seem to be the most lawless.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

[Tweet]1557025471178702849[/Tweet]

 

[Lindfield by the Pond]

That aint no accident, Sergey.

[Tweet]1557004542411243522[/Tweet]


[Tweet]1556996656079507456[/Tweet]

Quite careless synchronised discarding of cigarette butts next to explosive ordnance from Ivan.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Thought provoking analysis ( series of tweets ) :

[Tweet]1557358966987956224[/Tweet]

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

[Tweet]1557621932429819907[/Tweet]

 

[Icy Gull]

This is not good news for any Russians who fly around the country. I wonder how many safety risks they are taking to keep planes in the air?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/ne...sedgntp&cvid=fd3b87c3cf0e4dfd9b494c88af874f8d

 

[Carlos BC]

[Tweet]1557621932429819907[/Tweet]

That's great

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Putin looking more and more unlikely to win this now. He's heading for eventual total defeat in my opinion. The sooner he sues for peace the better his outcome will be.


His one card left is the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, which is a tricky situation. I guess that will need to be placed under seige when the time comes.

 

[Icy Gull]

Putin looking more and more unlikely to win this now. He's heading for eventual total defeat in my opinion. The sooner he sues for peace the better his outcome will be.


His one card left is the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, which is a tricky situation. I guess that will need to be placed under seige when the time comes.

Is he going to get desperate enough to use small tactical nuclear weapons? The million dollar question

 

[SeagullinExile]

Putin looking more and more unlikely to win this now. He's heading for eventual total defeat in my opinion. The sooner he sues for peace the better his outcome will be.


His one card left is the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, which is a tricky situation. I guess that will need to be placed under seige when the time comes.

I wouldn’t be so sure. He still has the tactical nuke scenario up his sleeve. I think he’d use it if Crimea looks like falling.

I hope I’m wrong, but a first strike option has long been a part of Russian military doctrine.

Scary thought.

 

[beorhthelm]

His one card left is the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, which is a tricky situation. I guess that will need to be placed under seige when the time comes.

kinda overlooking the gas supply card he is itching to play, cut off gas and oil to Germany and eastern europe to test their resolve over the winter. if he were rational he could have pulled back, negotiated something for Crimea, he probably believes he can take and hold east of Dniper, until army regroups to have another go a Kiev next year.

 

[redoubtable seagull]

kinda overlooking the gas supply card he is itching to play, cut off gas and oil to Germany and eastern europe to test their resolve over the winter. if he were rational he could have pulled back, negotiated something for Crimea, he probably believes he can take and hold east of Dniper, until army regroups to have another go a Kiev next year.

Short term hit only though and yes we all have a difficult winter ahead. Germany will probably go into recession but it has opened up its coal mines and is building facilities to receive LNG supplies, which China has currently been selling back to Europe. He is slowly losing.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

kinda overlooking the gas supply card he is itching to play, cut off gas and oil to Germany and eastern europe to test their resolve over the winter. if he were rational he could have pulled back, negotiated something for Crimea, he probably believes he can take and hold east of Dniper, until army regroups to have another go a Kiev next year.

The gas supply card is a given. We'll have a bad 3-4 months but it won't change anything.

His army is now taking such a battering he'll be lucky to hold onto Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

No more than my opinion of course.

 

[A1X]

Is he going to get desperate enough to use small tactical nuclear weapons? The million dollar question

It can’t be ruled out but I think it changes the international odds so far against him it’d be stupid. The Chinese wouldn’t back him, the Indians wouldn’t. A large part of this international effort Russia has put in is them claiming to be “liberating” and “decolonising” the Ukrainian people, it’s hard to justify that if you’re throwing a nuke at them.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I wouldn’t be so sure. He still has the tactical nuke scenario up his sleeve. I think he’d use it if Crimea looks like falling.

I hope I’m wrong, but a first strike option has long been a part of Russian military doctrine.

Scary thought.

Not sure I agree that he'll go nuclear. I'm not convinced but I suppose we find out when the Kerch bridge is flattened.

 

[usernamed]

We live in a country where it’s warm from the 2nd half of May to the end of the 2nd week in October.

As such, we have a difficult 7 months ahead of us, and have to support Ukraine to resolve this conflict before the following winter. Fence sitting no longer serves any useful purpose here. More weapons, more sanctions, more restrictions and penalties on those enabling Putin’s regime.