[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Nobby Cybergoat]

hmmm, big talk from someone who's political career melted away after minor obstacles. should really be showing more leadership in his homeland than having a whine at the west.

It's a fair comment from Kasparov. We do pass the difficult issues down the line. And i'm not going to join you in belittling his political career, when it's probably not easy for him to have one in that environment

But I think most in Ukraine or anti war Russians can see the predicament we're in, even if they don't like it. Engaging in full scale war with Russia would be an enormous call. Personally I would support us going to war in the Ukraine, because I think it's the right thing to do and that war is coming sooner or later so we may as well do it while they are weak, but I understand the enormous risks it entails and I understand why i'm in the minority.

 

[Uncle C]

It's a fair comment from Kasparov. We do pass the difficult issues down the line. And i'm not going to join you in belittling his political career, when it's probably not easy for him to have one in that environment

But I think most in Ukraine or anti war Russians can see the predicament we're in, even if they don't like it. Engaging in full scale war with Russia would be an enormous call. Personally I would support us going to war in the Ukraine, because I think it's the right thing to do and that war is coming sooner or later so we may as well do it while they are weak, but I understand the enormous risks it entails and I understand why i'm in the minority.

It doesn't take a lot of strength to push the Nuclear button.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Back to the gravamen of the thread, i.e. the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

and just look at this:

'Russian tank factory 'suspends operations' - Ukrainian intelligence'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60830013 - at 07:44

'Ukrainian military are reporting that a company that produces and repairs Russian tanks has suspended work at its plant in the central Russian region of Chelyabinsk due to a shortage of imported parts.
In a statement posted to Facebook, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that manufacturer Uralvagonzavod has had to pause production at the facility "due to the lack of receipts of foreign-made components".

Ukrainian military information and consultancy company Defense Express reports that Uralvagonzavod provides the only plant that carries out the assembly of tanks.
It goes on to report that the manufacturer routinely uses Western components.
There are no reports referring to the Uralvagonzavod facility in Russian media and the BBC has not been able to confirm the information in the Ukrainian statement.'

Let those who say that sanctions don't work have a read of this

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Yup, we are being so feeble here. I also saw a stream of tweets from Kasparov, pointing out how ludicrous and weak we were being. (apologies if it’s already been posted and I’ve missed it)

https://mobile.twitter.com/kasparov63/status/1505706425129000960

One section in particular resonated:

“The West loves to lose slowly, to pass the hard choices to the next admin, shift the consequences to buffer states. Now Ukraine has exposed them because Ukraine doesn't want to lose slowly, or lose at all. Ukraine wants to win. Help them win.”

We have an opportunity to dissuade Putin from this course of action and discourage him from trying it again. It’s no surprise to me that our response so far has been “we’ve cut 20% off his pocket money and we’re all jolly cross.”

It’s exactly the sort of weak and ineffectual leadership I’ve come to expect from our current crop of politicians, who Putin has (in some cases) clearly helped elevate to their current position. It is predictably disappointing though. I’m just glad US voters had ousted Trump prior to this kicking off, and we were spared the sight of the US President declaring that Putin had been “smart” and “a genius” in organising this.

Having Trump in the Whitehouse to pull out of NATO and to refuse to help Ukraine was all part of the big plan.

Unfortunately for Putin COVID struck, delaying the invasion to a time when Trump was no longer in charge - Putin blundered then by allowing his hubris to take over and going ahead anyway without his man in place.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Well, that chimes with a very common Western view that nation states in general have no meaning. The get rid of borders brigade. Cheers Remainers.

Now that is …embarrassing….


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[Deportivo Seagull]

Having Trump in the Whitehouse to pull out of NATO and to refuse to help Ukraine was all part of the big plan.

Unfortunately for Putin COVID struck, delaying the invasion to a time when Trump was no longer in charge - Putin blundered then by allowing his hubris to take over and going ahead anyway without his man in place.

This.


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[Nobby Cybergoat]

Having Trump in the Whitehouse to pull out of NATO and to refuse to help Ukraine was all part of the big plan.

Unfortunately for Putin COVID struck, delaying the invasion to a time when Trump was no longer in charge - Putin blundered then by allowing his hubris to take over and going ahead anyway without his man in place.

The biggest danger to eastern Europe in the coming years is a Republican in the White House. Even if it's not Trump who wins that nomination, it's likely to be a Trump wannabe, someone who has has had to slate Biden's policy and the concept of NATO to get near the White House and will likely not stick to Biden's robust response. If Putin was thinking more strategically, he'd preserve his forces and economy for when this happens.

 

[pb21]

Having Trump in the Whitehouse to pull out of NATO and to refuse to help Ukraine was all part of the big plan.

Unfortunately for Putin COVID struck, delaying the invasion to a time when Trump was no longer in charge - Putin blundered then by allowing his hubris to take over and going ahead anyway without his man in place.

I tend to agree and I note that the book linked to above (Foundations of Geopolitics), published in 1997, says this re. the US.

In the United States:

Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism, for instance, provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics".[8]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

Having not read the book, I don't know how much of an abridged synopsis this is though...

 

[Eric the meek]

I tend to agree and I note that the book linked to above (Foundations of Geopolitics), published in 1997, says this re. the US.



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

Having not read the book, I don't know how much of an abridged synopsis this is though...

It is only through sharing information like this, that we can begin to understand what a malevolent force the Russian administration has been, not just in Ukraine of course, but worldwide.

I hope that someone in the Pentagon is in the process of assembling a list of the dirty tricks (not just the current war, and the associated war crimes) that Russia has performed, from supporting and funding division, instability, insurrection, election rigging, disinformation, cybercrime, false flags, annexations, you name it.

Who knows? Perhaps one day we will even get to see the contents of the Russia report that is still sitting on Boris's desk.

 

[Baldseagull]

Back to the gravamen of the thread, i.e. the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

and just look at this:

'Russian tank factory 'suspends operations' - Ukrainian intelligence'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60830013 - at 07:44

'Ukrainian military are reporting that a company that produces and repairs Russian tanks has suspended work at its plant in the central Russian region of Chelyabinsk due to a shortage of imported parts.
In a statement posted to Facebook, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that manufacturer Uralvagonzavod has had to pause production at the facility "due to the lack of receipts of foreign-made components".

Ukrainian military information and consultancy company Defense Express reports that Uralvagonzavod provides the only plant that carries out the assembly of tanks.
It goes on to report that the manufacturer routinely uses Western components.
There are no reports referring to the Uralvagonzavod facility in Russian media and the BBC has not been able to confirm the information in the Ukrainian statement.'

Not sure how much effect that would have on Russian ability to fight currently, they have thousands of tanks, mostly mothballed older ones, but they don't seem to be doing them much good in Ukraine anyway. Ukrainians are stripping the mounted machine guns and ammunition when they can and reworking them into infantry operated heavy machine guns.

The Ukrainian M.O.D. report in the same thread was interesting at 5:51.

"In its daily update, Ukraine's ministry of defence said that Russian forces have stockpiles of ammunition and food that will last "no more than three days".

Russian forces have three days worth of fuel supplies, which are replenished by tank trucks. They have been unable to meet the needs of gathering troops.
Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Air Force has struck nine Russian air targets - one aircraft, six unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and two helicopters.
In Okhtyrka, a small city in Sumy Oblast in central Ukraine, 300 Russian servicemen refused to carry out hostilities on Ukraine, and have left the area of the operation.
Ukrainian forces defended 13 attacks and destroyed 14 tanks, eight infantry fighting vehicles, two multi-purpose towing vehicles, three artillery systems and four other vehicles.
The BBC could not independently verify these claims.

 

[usernamed]

hmmm, big talk from someone who's political career melted away after minor obstacles. should really be showing more leadership in his homeland than having a whine at the west.

I wouldn’t call anything related to providing a political alternative to Putin as “minor obstacles”.

 

[Eric the meek]

Not sure how much effect that would have on Russian ability to fight currently, they have thousands of tanks, mostly mothballed older ones, but they don't seem to be doing them much good in Ukraine anyway. Ukrainians are stripping the mounted machine guns and ammunition when they can and reworking them into infantry operated heavy machine guns.

The Ukrainian M.O.D. report in the same thread was interesting at 5:51.

"In its daily update, Ukraine's ministry of defence said that Russian forces have stockpiles of ammunition and food that will last "no more than three days".

Russian forces have three days worth of fuel supplies, which are replenished by tank trucks. They have been unable to meet the needs of gathering troops.
Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Air Force has struck nine Russian air targets - one aircraft, six unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and two helicopters.
In Okhtyrka, a small city in Sumy Oblast in central Ukraine, 300 Russian servicemen refused to carry out hostilities on Ukraine, and have left the area of the operation.
Ukrainian forces defended 13 attacks and destroyed 14 tanks, eight infantry fighting vehicles, two multi-purpose towing vehicles, three artillery systems and four other vehicles.
The BBC could not independently verify these claims.

Yes, I saw that as well They are two very encouraging reports. Obviously they have to be taken with the required pinch of salt.

The report about the tanks was good news from the sanctions perspective - showing that the sanctions are at least slowing down the Russian war machine.
I'm sure you're right about the effect on the battlefield.

I liked the story of the Ukrainians bastardising the captured/abandoned Russian tanks. Every Russian loss has the potential to be a Ukrainian gain! That's good re-use of resources by the Ukrainians. As well as winning the war and the peace, they're saving the planet as well !

 

[Triggaaar]

The main concern is that Russia will start using Chemical weapons, killing so many civilians that Ukrainian cities are forced to surrender. Only then with Putin want to negotiate peace, on his terms. His terms will include handing parts of Ukraine to Russia. I wonder whether Ukraine could pass a law now that makes it impossible for them to cede any land to another country without a referendum - one that would have to be verified by the UN (which in turn could only be done once Russian troops had withdrawn)?

 

[Insel affe]

I wonder whether Ukraine could pass a law now that makes it impossible for them to cede any land to another country without a referendum

Hmmm I can't see the Russians holding a ceasefire so the Ukrainians can pop out for a referendum.

 

[Triggaaar]

Hmmm I can't see the Russians holding a ceasefire so the Ukrainians can pop out for a referendum.

Eh? Passing the law now wouldn't involve a referendum, it's simply a way of making it impossible to give Russia land. So if a peace agreement did involve giving them land, it can later be pointed out that it wasn't lawful, so Ukraine hasn't agreed to it.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I tend to agree and I note that the book linked to above (Foundations of Geopolitics), published in 1997, says this re. the US.



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

Having not read the book, I don't know how much of an abridged synopsis this is though...

It s tricky to know how far to go with this though. The temptation is to oppose anything supported by the Russians. Hence my sarcastic post this morning. That way though we end up opposing any forms of protest whether it be at the ballot box or on the streets and this regardless of the legitimacy of the issue. Do we oppose these ‘Afro American racists’ merely because some fascist writer in Russia says he supports them ?

 

[Insel affe]

Eh? Passing the law now wouldn't involve a referendum, it's simply a way of making it impossible to give Russia land. So if a peace agreement did involve giving them land, it can later be pointed out that it wasn't lawful, so Ukraine hasn't agreed to it.

You suggested a referendum, I was just wondering how feasible that would be.
Russia will get what it wants, unless the UN or NATO get involved militarily, we all know that, it will be a long drawn out conflict until that day.

 

[Triggaaar]

You suggested a referendum, I was just wondering how feasible that would be.

I know it's not feasible at the moment, which is part of the point, meaning it wouldn't be feasible for Ukraine to give land to Russia.

Russia will get what it wants, unless the UN or NATO get involved militarily, we all know that, it will be a long drawn out conflict until that day.

We certainly don't all know that. And when you say Russia, I assume you mean Putin? Because the people of Russia don't want what's happening to their country.

 

[pb21]

It s tricky to know how far to go with this though. The temptation is to oppose anything supported by the Russians. Hence my sarcastic post this morning. That way though we end up opposing any forms of protest whether it be at the ballot box or on the streets and this regardless of the legitimacy of the issue. Do we oppose these ‘Afro American racists’ merely because some fascist writer in Russia says he supports them ?

I don't know how you deal with this kind of situation most effectively, but I don't think brushing it under the carpet is for the best and, IMO, some form of public acknowledgement would be a good idea.

 

[essbee1]

You suggested a referendum, I was just wondering how feasible that would be.
Russia will get what it wants, unless the UN or NATO get involved militarily, we all know that, it will be a long drawn out conflict until that day.

I'm not so sure tbh. With Russian casualties approaching the 9-year of Afghanistan war levels - the Russian people might
start rumblings.