[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Deportivo Seagull]

Um, they've annexed Ukraine since 2014 (and see Georgia too). This is just an extension of this. I suspect what will happen is that they will choke Kyiv and when the government there is either killed or surrenders they will install a puppet government friendly to Moscow. Same thing going on in Belarus and it's working out pretty well for Moscow.

That only works when the majority of the population is supportive of at least subservient. That’s not the case here.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Winning the war will be one thing, but Russia will never win the peace.

Very much this.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[jakarta]

Hi. Im just going to put this out there again.

https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/helpforukraine2?utm_term=ydKJBYqNm

Weve raised £855 in the first 24 hours thanks to some very generous donations including at least 2 members of this forum. Thanks to them and any others that have or will donate.
For background, we have managed to secure some space in a container going to Poland on Saturday. The cost of the transport will be met by me personally and every single penny raised via the justgiving page will be spent on essential items for the refugees fleeing this invasion.

Worth bouncing this, have just donated and its now past £1200.00

 

[nicko31]

Defence minister Ben Wallace just been listening to him on LBC and questions about a no fly zone and trying to keep individual party politics out of it how do other NSC find him regarding Ukraine i believe that he does have genuine military service?

Seems a decent guy, level headed...

 

[dazzer6666]

Found this quite moving

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-60517569

 

[dazzer6666]

Defence minister Ben Wallace just been listening to him on LBC and questions about a no fly zone and trying to keep individual party politics out of it how do other NSC find him regarding Ukraine i believe that he does have genuine military service?

Sandhurst, Captain in the Scots Guards.

Wallace attended the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, before he was commissioned in 1991 into Scots Guards.[4] From 1991 to 1998, he served in Germany, Cyprus, Belize, and Northern Ireland, rising to the rank of captain. During his time in Northern Ireland, he was mentioned in dispatches in 1992 for an incident in which the patrol he was commanding captured an entire IRA active service unit attempting to carry out a bomb attack against British troops.[2][9]

 

[nicko31]

That only works when the majority of the population is supportive of at least subservient. That’s not the case here.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

And with Belarus they've never had freedom, Ukraine has been free from Russia for 3 decades. Its been far from perfect, but its freedom and they don't want to turn back the clock. Sadly I can see this dragging for years, Ukraine destroyed and Russia going into gradual decline. No winners and the people of both countries will suffer badly, a huge refugee problem awaits for Western Europe

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Um, they've annexed Ukraine since 2014 (and see Georgia too). This is just an extension of this. I suspect what will happen is that they will choke Kyiv and when the government there is either killed or surrenders they will install a puppet government friendly to Moscow. Same thing going on in Belarus and it's working out pretty well for Moscow.

That puppet government would last about a week.

And the 2nd puppet government another week.

And the 3rd puppet government another week.

Etc. Etc. Etc.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Defence minister Ben Wallace just been listening to him on LBC and questions about a no fly zone and trying to keep individual party politics out of it how do other NSC find him regarding Ukraine i believe that he does have genuine military service?

He's done reasonably well in the circumstances.

The lack of a pre-invasion no fly zone - with Ukrainian jets patrolling in pairs with NATO jets - is probably a mistake ( too late now without declaring war on Russia ) but that's not his call.

 

[peterward]

So what !
Neo Nazis, should never really be a so what, unless you think they are useful.
Where did I suggest it was grounds for or an excuse for an invasion ?
You say, and mention that there are nazis in every country (which there are) and yes they are one of Putins excuses.
I posted these clips because, I thought I’d just have a quick look on the internet and see if there was any truth about Putins claim.
Obviously Putin is using this as one of many excuses to cause outrageous atrocities, and would have gone into the Ukraine, Neo Nazis or Neo Nots.
However one must always be alert to the right wing taking a foot hold in times of National strife, to ignore it is dangerous.
If indeed one of those clips is right and two different right wing factions are part of the military, then the brave people of the Ukraine when their war with Russia is over need to address that, before it grows on a wave of nationalism, to ignore it, is to let it bubble away and grow, the people of the Ukraine will need help rebuilding their country and a wave of nationalism must not be the fertile ground of growth for any right wing organisation never mind a military wing. I’m sure you agree, and I have every faith they will succeed on both counts.

What you say is right about far right politics, including neo nazi groups, there politics is abhorent and in normal society they should be challenged and marginalised for their political views, but [MENTION=12935]GT49er[/MENTION] is right too. This is not the time where people's views matter, it's everyman against a foreign invader on your land to kill.

The Azov battalion was formed in 2014 after Russia stole Crimea and then launched hybrid invasion of Donbass, Ukraine's Army was 5000, it's equipment obsolete or broken.

The far right groups stepped up and volunteered to fight against the foreign invaders, they were temporarily sequestered under the military command & control as a defensive battalion.

Today that battalion has served like our TA, a reservist group.

They are not chasing Russian speakers, many are native Russian speakers, they are a defensive military battalion albeit with bad political views.

I don't like the politics of momentum, I hate the politics of groups like the BNP or those racist thugs of Tommy Robinson. But if we encountered this, or a modern day version of WW2, needs must.... This isn't anymore about political discourse or world views however bad, it's only about men with weapons fighting against a murderous invader.

I doubt there's much politics being discussed.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Defence minister Ben Wallace just been listening to him on LBC and questions about a no fly zone and trying to keep individual party politics out of it how do other NSC find him regarding Ukraine i believe that he does have genuine military service?

He's spoken with intelligence and compassion.

I was amazed to discover he is a Conservative

 

[Medwayseagull]

Seems a decent guy, level headed...

He recently made that crass comment equating the current situation to the Crimean war so not for me.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

The success of Russia to install a puppet regime will largely depend on compliance from the Ukraine army or what's left of it. This seems, at the moment, almost inconceivable. I can imagine some sort of installation of a load of Russian Generals and thugs at the top an they will try and enforce discipline to Russia through fear and brutality. They would do well, not to be put up against a wall and shot within a week though.

I just don't see how Russia holds Ukraine without an enormous standing force operating with ever more brutality

 

[Wozza]

Have we done this?

1990s Manifesto outlining Russia’s plans is starting to come true
https://www.news.com.au/world/europ...e/news-story/343a27c71077b87668f1aa783d03032c

An article from Russia's “Foundations of Geopolitics" manifesto from the 90s.... written in 2017.

(More on the book here: https://thestrategybridge.org/the-b...k-reviewing-dugins-foundations-of-geopolitics)

 

[Surf's Up]

The ease with which Putin takes control of Ukraine and the extent of the involvement avoidance by NATO may well determine how emboldened Putin feels to begin to take NATO on, initially in the Baltic States and then in Romania, Bulgaria etc. His long game goal is the re-establishment of the territorial boundaries of the former USSR and chillingly he is emerging as a man of his word with few, if any, scruples regarding how this is achieved. This could be a long, irreversible descent into hell.

 

[Poojah]

The ease with which Putin takes control of Ukraine and the extent of the involvement avoidance by NATO may well determine how emboldened Putin feels to begin to take NATO on, initially in the Baltic States and then in Romania, Bulgaria etc. His long game goal is the re-establishment of the territorial boundaries of the former USSR and chillingly he is emerging as a man of his word with few, if any, scruples regarding how this is achieved. This could be a long, irreversible descent into hell.

Entering just one NATO state would trigger a full-scale, probably (and regrettably) nuclear, war with the west. It’s not going to be a gradual land grab of the Baltics, nation-by-nation.

I have no idea how this will end and the significance of that ending for non-Ukrainians, but this won’t turn into a steady, Hitleresque invasion of Eastern Europe - it will escalate too quickly for that to happen. The existence of NATO and nuclear weapons changes the dynamic completely.

 

[Hugo Rune]

The ease with which Putin takes control of Ukraine and the extent of the involvement avoidance by NATO may well determine how emboldened Putin feels to begin to take NATO on, initially in the Baltic States and then in Romania, Bulgaria etc. His long game goal is the re-establishment of the territorial boundaries of the former USSR and chillingly he is emerging as a man of his word with few, if any, scruples regarding how this is achieved. This could be a long, irreversible descent into hell.

I think Putin is only interested in Russian speaking Slavic countries. Places like Estonia will not be on his hit list.

 

[Commander]

He recently made that crass comment equating the current situation to the Crimean war so not for me.

Yep, completely dismiss somebody for one comment they once made. Very 2022.

 

[Bry Nylon]

The ease with which Putin takes control of Ukraine and the extent of the involvement avoidance by NATO may well determine how emboldened Putin feels to begin to take NATO on, initially in the Baltic States and then in Romania, Bulgaria etc. His long game goal is the re-establishment of the territorial boundaries of the former USSR and chillingly he is emerging as a man of his word with few, if any, scruples regarding how this is achieved. This could be a long, irreversible descent into hell.

Effectively, Putin is one man with a huge private army and no checks or balances on his power or ideological ambitions. Those surrounding him in the Kremlin and lacking the moral courage to stop him / remove him are just as culpable.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I think Putin is only interested in Russian speaking Slavic countries. Places like Estonia will not be on his hit list.

Yes, and his Chinese buddies won't let him have Kazakhstan - his troops left there within a week with their tails between their legs when he tried it.