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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



essbee1

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2014
4,740
I may be wrong, but think this military offensive is going badly for Russia.

Surely, its only time when they sue for peace, and have their propaganda say they have achieved their objectives.

I'd like to think so. I'd imagine that there are huge numbers of foreign fighters pouring into the country to fight Putin's scum - and being armed on their way by EU countries.
 




A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,575
Deepest, darkest Sussex
I don’t expect them to do so. I have nothing but admiration and respect for what they are doing to save the sovereignty by of their nation and their freedom, and I fully understand that Ukrainians will not judge the west well for its lack of meaningful intervention.

But governments ultimately have to have their own people at heart when they make decisions. If stepping in now meant that the biggest nuclear bomb ever detonated was dropped on London, or Manchester, or Birmingham, or Liverpool, or Leeds, that would not equate to good decision making.

I’ll need to review my original post as it’s not been interpreted the way I intended it; not only by you, but by others too so I’ll hold my hands up there - it’s clearly my mistake. To condense my argument though; the greater resistance Putin faces, the greater his response. The greater his response, the greater the chance of a flare up between Russia and NATO. The greater chance of a flare up between those two parties, the greater the chance of global thermonuclear war. In that sense, and in that sense only, an easier victory for Putin more likely leads to better outcomes for the planet as a whole.

Of course, I don’t expect Ukrainians to see it that way. If I were them, I would want help from the world’s military powers in the here and now. But for the reasons above, it’s not coming any time soon.

Once this current round of sanctions is announced I wonder whether we’ll see a period of no new announcements from the west under the pretence of “letting the sanctions do their work” in order to stop aggravating Putin. Biden is due to give his State of the Union address on Tuesday night so that might be the end of this salvo of announcements and any further assistance will be done on the quiet.
 






Neville's Breakfast

Well-known member
May 1, 2016
13,450
Oxton, Birkenhead
What does BP's offload of stake in Russian oil mean exactly please anyone? Just announced. Ta.

It means they are going to sell their 20% share stake in Rosneft. They will take a huge financial hit and it is the end of a key BP investment strategy. Rosneft also takes a huge hit in share price and consequent weakening of their ability to raise capital. Having BP as a partner/part owner also gave them access to huge amounts of capital. BP is as much a bank as an oil company as it finances capital investment in oil infrastructure across the world. Without access to capital an oil company is dead.
 




A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,575
Deepest, darkest Sussex


essbee1

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2014
4,740
It means they are going to sell their 20% share stake in Rosneft. They will take a huge financial hit and it is the end of a key BP investment strategy. Rosneft also takes a huge hit in share price and consequent weakening of their ability to raise capital. Having BP as a partner/part owner also gave them access to huge amounts of capital. BP is as much a bank as an oil company as it finances capital investment in oil infrastructure across the world. Without access to capital an oil company is dead.

Thank you NB.
 






Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
Why do you?

[tweet]1497645163098910720[/tweet]

Screenshot from two MPs

D8074B90-1043-4212-ADFD-9A728246FDC4.jpeg
 








A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,575
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Please give me one millionth of the cojones of this man. Note that he’s quite happily puffing away on a lit fag at all times during this video

[tweet]1497938455942205448[/tweet]
 


Neville's Breakfast

Well-known member
May 1, 2016
13,450
Oxton, Birkenhead
I don’t expect them to do so. I have nothing but admiration and respect for what they are doing to save the sovereignty by of their nation and their freedom, and I fully understand that Ukrainians will not judge the west well for its lack of meaningful intervention.

But governments ultimately have to have their own people at heart when they make decisions. If stepping in now meant that the biggest nuclear bomb ever detonated was dropped on London, or Manchester, or Birmingham, or Liverpool, or Leeds, that would not equate to good decision making.

I’ll need to review my original post as it’s not been interpreted the way I intended it; not only by you, but by others too so I’ll hold my hands up there - it’s clearly my mistake. To condense my argument though; the greater resistance Putin faces, the greater his response. The greater his response, the greater the chance of a flare up between Russia and NATO. The greater chance of a flare up between those two parties, the greater the chance of global thermonuclear war. In that sense, and in that sense only, an easier victory for Putin more likely leads to better outcomes for the planet as a whole.

Of course, I don’t expect Ukrainians to see it that way. If I were them, I would want help from the world’s military powers in the here and now. But for the reasons above, it’s not coming any time soon.

No worries. I understand the subtlety in your argument :thumbsup: I was just picking you up on the implications.
 


usernamed

New member
Aug 31, 2017
763
Well in that case we have a world war then, in all reality. Not much we can do about that if that’s the case, but I’d rather we didn’t do anything to increase the prospects of that happening.

I’d rather stop him now than have my son have to try to stop him later when he’s got far more territory and his supply lines and strategies battle tested.

Suspect I’d be an absolute liability in battle, and have responsibilities here, but genuinely would prefer he has his bluff called here than in 5/6 years time. He’s not going to stop.
 






vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
28,274
Breaking news on the consistently excellent BBC:

'Sweden to send arms to Ukraine'.

P.S. Sweden is neutral. Or it was!
That's going to piss off a certain Swedish contributor here.
 




Deportivo Seagull

I should coco
Jul 22, 2003
5,472
Mid Sussex
[tweet]1497994136732983317[/tweet]

Lots of talk this is a much-vaunted Chechen column of Russian armour. Or at least, it was.

I’m hoping that’s the much vaunted Chechen lot as I pity the poor Russian conscript in the middle of that.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,169
That's going to piss off a certain Swedish contributor here.

'Sweden has announced it will send military equipment and other aid to Ukraine.

Announcing the move, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said it would be the first time Sweden had sent weapons to a country in conflict since the Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939.
She said the shipments would include 5,000 single-use anti-tank launchers, 5,000 pieces of body armour, and 5,000 helmets as well as 135,000 ration packs.
"My conclusion is now that our security is best served by us supporting Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia," Andersson said.
It comes after the European Union announced it would buy weapons and deliver them to Ukraine, the first time in its history it has taken such a step.

Welcome to the family Sweden!
 




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