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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



Southern Scouse

Well-known member
Jul 21, 2011
2,095
As a massive pro-European it makes absolutely no difference militarily if we are in or out of Europe. If Putin had attacked us unilaterally the USA and Europe would have been mobilised against him. He would not attack any nuclear power unilaterally. However, Ukraine is a win/win for him. He had already taken the Crimea and taking control of Ukraine creates that no man’s land between Russia and NATO which the need to do so has been sold to the Russian people. He knew what the consequences are and he thinks it was an acceptable risk. The gamble is spilling over into Poland which would force NATO to act and possibly lead to mutual destruction.
If, he is able to contain it to Ukraine, he will have shown Russia sees through its words with actions, create his safe-zone, weaken NATO who would appear weak and know that economics will win through due to Europe’s need for energy.
Ukraine will be the only ling term casualty, with an ongoing conflict making Chechnya look almost like a pub fight.
 














peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,278
I would imagine military thinking will be along the lines of ; Forget Ukraine. It’s gone. It belongs to Russia for now.

They will be manoeuvring ordinance and troops to NATO borders in anticipation of a move against those territories.

I dont, they will want to do what they did to the Soviets in Afghanistan. Yes they will massively increase defence on the eastern NATO flank, but they will imho be doing everything to support insurgency against Putins forces
 


PILTDOWN MAN

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 15, 2004
19,600
Hurst Green
This idiot is capable of anything. He'll happily press the button.


I agree and he'll end up with no reason not too. If he is removed as leader it will only ever be with him being dead one way or another. It is whether he is extinguished prior to him causing untold damage.

While being surrounded by his generals etc, many will be following orders preserving their own lives but some will have exactly the same objectives as Putin. The void at the head of Russia could, more than likely, be even more dangerous.
 


herecomesaregular

We're in the pipe, 5 by 5
Oct 27, 2008
4,653
Still in Brighton
How do you get that buffer though when NATO members Latvia and Estonia already border Russia?

Following the Ukraine invasion there will be a massive build up of Nato troops to protect those countries. It's a different starting point. Putin knows that but has decided to risk this invasion based on the West's current weakness today. That weakness won't be there tomorrow.
 




Garry Nelson's Left Foot

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
13,527
tokyo
We may have anticipated his every move, but he has still gone through with it.

I anticipate that he will next pick off a vulnerable NATO state. Expect him to start to express concern for Russians living in Estonia and Latvia.
I expect him to encourage and allow Belarus to engage more aggressively with Poland.
I expect him to increase cyber attacks against individual EU countries.
I expect him to offer a deal with Turkey.
I expect China to use this time to invade with Taiwan.
I expect North Korea to be emboldened and to do something silly by provoking South Korea.

All these things will happen because nobody wants a war until it is on a serious doorstep e.g. at Germany's border. Yet again, we'll allow little NATO states to suffer to avoid what would inevitably be the end for us all. It's what will happen.

I bloody hope not. That will be disastrous.
 








Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
NATO aircraft on the border.

These are just the ones with transponders on.

[Tweet]1496822162631573511[/Tweet]
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,706
The Fatherland
I blame Shane Duffy.
 


Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
31,267
A better way to scare the 500m people in the EU is to launch a military invasion near its Eastern border. That is happening.

Not must of a strategists are you? The bottom line is Western Europeans feel Ukraine is still a distant land and semi- Russian anyway, they will be worried but not scared at this point. Russians will begin to scare Western Europe when NATO countries come under attack, or, worse still, vulnerable EU countries are targeted.

I'm sure there is a timetable and targeted cyberattacks will bring pressure on political leaders. Western forces will need to flood NATO coutries to stop Russian expansion and some sort of retaliatory cyber attacks will be necessary.
 




Dibdab

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2021
1,078
Just as Covids grip on unleashing fear on the globe dissipates along comes East v West conflict. Impeccable timing...

I wonder what's next?

2030.jpg
 


portslade seagull

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2003
17,949
portslade
And why cant we do cyber attacks on Russia, we can. And why cant we expose and confiscate all Russian corrupt wealth including Chelsea FC or Putins wallet, we can and we should.

You act is if we're powerless bystanders, we're not, we're a key part of the largest military defence group on the planet. people need to grow a pair

Such a shame the usual suspects take a serious situation down the Brexit route
 




nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,578
Gods country fortnightly
We may have anticipated his every move, but he has still gone through with it.

I anticipate that he will next pick off a vulnerable NATO state. Expect him to start to express concern for Russians living in Estonia and Latvia.
I expect him to encourage and allow Belarus to engage more aggressively with Poland.
I expect him to increase cyber attacks against individual EU countries.
I expect him to offer a deal with Turkey.
I expect China to use this time to invade with Taiwan.
I expect North Korea to be emboldened and to do something silly by provoking South Korea.

All these things will happen because nobody wants a war until it is on a serious doorstep e.g. at Germany's border. Yet again, we'll allow little NATO states to suffer to avoid what would inevitably be the end for us all. It's what will happen.

China would have to be very dumb to invade Taiwan, about 50% of the world's semi conductors are made there. Unless it was peaceful (it wouldn't be) It would bring the whole world to its knees
 




A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,550
Deepest, darkest Sussex


Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ

Hove / Παρος
Apr 7, 2006
6,770
Hove / Παρος
A damning assessment, hard to argue with. The trouble with sanctions in a situation like this is that at best, their effects are medium to long term. Their immediate impact is none or negligible. Not that I'm sure what other options the "West" has :(

[tweet]1496814083626213380[/tweet]
 


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