[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Swansman]

Swanny sometimes reminds me of that one kid who never quite grew out of his sixth-form "I'm so deep and philosophical" phase.

What did the other kids grow into? "I'm so shallow and impulsive"?

You're probably right.

 

[BBassic]

What did the other kids grow into? "I'm so shallow and impulsive"?

No idea! It's been twenty odd years since I was in college and I made damn sure to not remain friends with any of them.

EDIT: Actually, that's unfair. Some of them I just lost touch with.

 

[Half Time Pies]

I don't "know" if he would be happy to stop there. You can never know for sure. We've had twenty of the calmest and most peaceful years in European history however, based on unwritten borders: the EU which is part/collaborators of the American empire and the old Soviet with a similar relation to Russia. The perfect solution? Obviously not, I never wanted to be part of the American empire and I'm sure there are people in various former Soviet states not exactly thrilled by being tight with Russia... so its not the perfect solution, but its better than all the present alternatives. The status quo was fine but we're never happy, spending a shiteload of money (and perhaps blood) to consolidate ex-Yugoslavia with our empire, then the Baltic states and now Ukraine.

Our everlasting hunger for world domination is what causes this.

The British Empire at its peak controlled 24% of the worlds land area. It is no wonder Russia fears and distrusts the west the same way people here fear and distrust them.

The problem around these types of discussions is people talk about the individual actions of nations without seeing the bigger picture, this power struggle is a natural consequence of the anarchic structure of the international system, its a structural problem. Over history the balance of power has shifted from a unipolar (one world power, i.e. the US after a the cold war), to a multipolar (several powers, like we had before the 2nd world war) to a bi-polar (two predominant powers, i.e. the cold war). States within the system may appear to be behaving irrationally, but they are actually behaving perfectly rationally. In trying to protect their own security they seek as much power and influence as they can get, whether this be by making themselves militarily stronger or by aligning themselves with others nations who are. We know from history that if there is a power vacuum someone will occupy it and if you don't respond its often too late (there were plenty of people in this country who favoured the appeasement of Hitler).

For me the constant criticism of US and NATO you hear smacks of the Monty Python sketch 'what have the romans ever done for us'! The entry of the US in to the 2nd world war was a pivotal point and the end of the cold war has ushered in an era of economic growth and a large increase in the number of liberal democracies and particularly in Eastern Europe. As you said under the US security umbrella we have benefited from living in one of the most peaceful periods in European history.

Now you have a dictator who wants to disrupt the status quo and turn back the clock. In the realm of international relations nobody particularly comes out smelling of roses but unless the EU get themselves in order militarily the alternative to living under the US security umbrella is unthinkable.

 

[Half Time Pies]

Yes, there was such “widespread opposition” “tarnishing the reputation….of Tony Blair” that he got re elected two years after the Iraq war with a 100 seat majority.

People have short memories but you cant seriously be suggesting the Blair's reputation wasn't tarnished by Iraq or that there wasn't widespread opposition to the war?! When anyone talks about him they talk about Iraq!

A lot of the lies came out years later but the majority of 100 was down from 167 at previous election with a non existent opposition. To appease the opposition within his own party Blair also had to agree to resign before the next election!

 

[vegster]

I think Moldova falls if Ukraine does.

Pretty much a joint operation although we are not at that point yet.

Then I think a pause.


But we will then move on to a reheated Serbia/Bosnia situation - where the Kremlin is more obviously at arms length - within a fairly short time frame.


Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania not at the top of his list for now. But where will we be in 10 years time ?

He's been trying psychological warfare on them for many years, misinformation, trying to undermine their leadershp, trying to forment an uprising by ethnic Russians in the three states. They are bang on the border and could be invaded and subdued very quickly if it were not for NATO.

Belarus has effectively been taken over by Russia now, I can't ever see the Russian forces that travelled there for " Joint Exercises " ever leaving now , particularly with the unpopularity of Lukashenko, I fully expect Putin to remove him and replace him with what seems a better president of Putin's choosing.

 

[darkwolf666]

Oh dear! Our finest response to the crisis...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-60496122

 

[beorhthelm]

Oh dear! Our finest response to the crisis...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-60496122

all fair comment. pretty much what analysts and eastern european politicans are saying.

 

[Poojah]

Oh dear! Our finest response to the crisis...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-60496122

Out of interest what was Russia’s nuclear arsenal like in 1853?

 

[jakarta]

Anyone been to any of the Baltic States in the last few years?

I went to Latvia with Mrs Jakarta few years back and they absolutely loathe the Russians.

Also went to Poland a couple of years ago and if anything they hate them even more.

Does anyone see a pattern emerging?

 

[Wrong-Direction]

..

Sent from my SM-A326B using Tapatalk

 

[Eeyore]

Can we all unite and agree what a dick Ben Wallace is ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-60496122

 

[Icy Gull]

Russia recalling Embassy staff and closing the Embassy in Ukraine suggests we are not far off a full scale invasion imo

 

[amexer]

ru

The problem around these types of discussions is people talk about the individual actions of nations without seeing the bigger picture, this power struggle is a natural consequence of the anarchic structure of the international system, its a structural problem. Over history the balance of power has shifted from a unipolar (one world power, i.e. the US after a the cold war), to a multipolar (several powers, like we had before the 2nd world war) to a bi-polar (two predominant powers, i.e. the cold war). States within the system may appear to be behaving irrationally, but they are actually behaving perfectly rationally. In trying to protect their own security they seek as much power and influence as they can get, whether this be by making themselves militarily stronger or by aligning themselves with others nations who are. We know from history that if there is a power vacuum someone will occupy it and if you don't respond its often too late (there were plenty of people in this country who favoured the appeasement of Hitler).

Who have Russia got to secure themselves from ?
For me the constant criticism of US and NATO you hear smacks of the Monty Python sketch 'what have the romans ever done for us'! The entry of the US in to the 2nd world war was a pivotal point and the end of the cold war has ushered in an era of economic growth and a large increase in the number of liberal democracies and particularly in Eastern Europe. As you said under the US security umbrella we have benefited from living in one of the most peaceful periods in European history.

Now you have a dictator who wants to disrupt the status quo and turn back the clock. In the realm of international relations nobody particularly comes out smelling of roses but unless the EU get themselves in order militarily the alternative to living under the US security umbrella is unthinkable.

Who have Russia got to secure themselves agains

 

[dangull]

This is why the Western alliance will not allow any new nations nuclear weapons. Despite all the bluster with sanctions, there will be no NATO forces involved for obvious reasons, maybe even if Russia went further westwards.
Putin seems to want to regain the Soviet Unions Empire, similar to Hitler righting the wrong of Versailles.

 

[vegster]

Anyone been to any of the Baltic States in the last few years?

I went to Latvia with Mrs Jakarta few years back and they absolutely loathe the Russians.

Also went to Poland a couple of years ago and if anything they hate them even more.

Does anyone see a pattern emerging?

I read somewhere that Ukraine is almost as corrupt as Russia but currently cleaning up their act. Apparently Putin is scared that if nearby countries are stable, genuinely democratic and not as corrupt as Russia then ordinary Russians might start getting ideas.

So it pays for him to undermine democracy and split western alliances..

 

[Hugo Rune]

I read somewhere that Ukraine is almost as corrupt as Russia but currently cleaning up their act. Apparently Putin is scared that if nearby countries are stable, genuinely democratic and not as corrupt as Russia then ordinary Russians might start getting ideas.

So it pays for him to undermine democracy and split western alliances..

Perfect summary.

They need as many criminal dictatorships as possible, widespread democracy weakens Putin and his criminal chums.

 

[Amexarmadillo]

Isn’t it convenient that no one is talking about parties all of a sudden….

 

[darkwolf666]

Out of interest what was Russia’s nuclear arsenal like in 1853?

Apparently the Gurkhas will sort it out!

 

[Driver8]

Anyone been to any of the Baltic States in the last few years?

I went to Latvia with Mrs Jakarta few years back and they absolutely loathe the Russians.

Also went to Poland a couple of years ago and if anything they hate them even more.

Does anyone see a pattern emerging?

I spent a few days in Moscow when EasyJet started flying there from Manchester. My overwhelming memory was how miserable and rude the locals were so perhaps even Russians hate Russians. Even the animals in Moscow zoo were all miserable.

The tube stations were nice though.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Isn’t it convenient that no one is talking about parties all of a sudden….

In the grand scheme of world affairs, I think this might come under 'prioritising'.

Unless BoJo and his cronies have set this whole thing up as a sideshow distraction.