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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
52,979
Goldstone
Trump discovers that ending this war and stopping the killing, is not a five minute (or a 24 hour) job.

Even if he were to make an overly-generous offer to Putin of a chunk of Ukraine, Putin doesn't just want a chunk. He wants it all, and all of it within Russia.

These current comments from the Russian propaganda machine might just be part of their Trump like negotiations. 'We want it all', 'How about you keep what you have? ', 'Deal'.

Russia gaining control of Ukraine is an unrealistic pipe dream.
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,998
These current comments from the Russian propaganda machine might just be part of their Trump like negotiations. 'We want it all', 'How about you keep what you have? ', 'Deal'.

Russia gaining control of Ukraine is an unrealistic pipe dream.
They might. I'm not familiar with Russian negotiating tactics. Putin has been consistently insane throughout the entire war. There has never been any indication of compromise or flexibility.

However, by using Solovyev to give the message to the Russian people, if he subsequently agrees to just a chunk of Ukraine, he can legitimately claim he didn't say he wants all of Ukraine, and he can present the reduced spoils as a victory.
 




A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,477
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Even if Trump handed Russia the nation of Ukraine on a silver platter there’s no way the Russians could hold it, there’d be a massive resistance movement and they can’t even keep the Ukrainian professional army at bay
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,252
Wiltshire
Even if Trump handed Russia the nation of Ukraine on a silver platter there’s no way the Russians could hold it, there’d be a massive resistance movement and they can’t even keep the Ukrainian professional army at bay
I hope we don't get to that point, but if we do then of course I hope you're right.
A Ukrainian resistance would still require enormous weapon, ammo and drone supplies.
 
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Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,998
More pressures on the Russian economy. Closing down much of Russia's shadow fleet of oil exports would be of enormous benefit.

Talking of Kazakhstan, I was reading (and yes, would you believe it, I can't remember where...), there are great swathes of southern Russia which used to belong to Kazakhstan. Astrakhan is one of them.

The vultures are circling. Let's hope they shortly have a darn good feed and can barely move due to their full stomachs.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,998
Let's take a closer look at part of Anton Gerashchenko's tweet again. (thanks to @ raymondo in post 17705).

'The European Union is preparing a new sanctions package that would target Russia’s “shadow fleet”. The European Parliament will vote on a resolution that would hinder the ability of Russian oil tankers to move through “European” waters. If passed, the resolution would mandate regular sanction inspections and satellite monitoring of the ships’ routes, and allow European authorities to arrest or confiscate the tankers and their contents. This could have devastating consequences for Russian oil exports by sea, which mostly take place through the waters of the adjacent European waters of the Baltic and Black seas, as well as the Arctic Ocean. Russia’s Pacific terminals will not be sufficient to compensate for the losses in transit through the European ports.'

This ties in with an observation by Jason Jay Smart of www.kyivpost.com in which he says that Russia is highly reliant on the viability of its eight main ports handling oil exports, and is therefore vulnerable to military attacks on them. It looks like the EU are coming at it from another angle - using its economic might to achieve much the same goal.

A further alternative tactic would be if Trump simply does what he has promised to do - and the same thing that he did during his last administration. Increase US oil production. The resultant fall in the oil price could be the final nail in the coffin for Russia's basket case economy.
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,252
Wiltshire
Let's take a closer look at part of Anton Gerashchenko's tweet again. (thanks to @ raymondo in post 17705).

'The European Union is preparing a new sanctions package that would target Russia’s “shadow fleet”. The European Parliament will vote on a resolution that would hinder the ability of Russian oil tankers to move through “European” waters. If passed, the resolution would mandate regular sanction inspections and satellite monitoring of the ships’ routes, and allow European authorities to arrest or confiscate the tankers and their contents. This could have devastating consequences for Russian oil exports by sea, which mostly take place through the waters of the adjacent European waters of the Baltic and Black seas, as well as the Arctic Ocean. Russia’s Pacific terminals will not be sufficient to compensate for the losses in transit through the European ports.'

This ties in with an observation by Jason Jay Smart of www.kyivpost.com in which he says that Russia is highly reliant on the viability of its eight main ports handling oil exports, and is therefore vulnerable to military attacks on them. It looks like the EU are coming at it from another angle - using its economic might to achieve much the same goal.

A further alternative tactic would be if Trump simply does what he has promised to do - and the same thing that he did during his last administration. Increase US oil production. The resultant fall in the oil price could be the final nail in the coffin for Russia's basket case economy.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are some armed incidents during such inspections - Russia will likely try to make that happen.
 








Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,137
Cumbria
Has Trump got the patience and the will to make a success of this? To pull this off with minimal loss of life, he will need a level of dexterity that I doubt he possesses.

Perhaps the best course of action is to appear to do little. Keep the talks on a low simmer, but feed Ukraine all it needs to defend itself. All the while, gently reducing the price of oil, so that Putin slowly, inexorably, runs out of money, the Russian tank slowly grinds to a halt, and the exhausted, sickened, unpaid Russian troops walk off the battlefield and go home in search of Putin.
ie: follow the same course of action as Biden.
Even if Trump handed Russia the nation of Ukraine on a silver platter there’s no way the Russians could hold it, there’d be a massive resistance movement and they can’t even keep the Ukrainian professional army at bay
I'm really not sure Trump can 'hand over' Ukraine anyway.
A further alternative tactic would be if Trump simply does what he has promised to do - and the same thing that he did during his last administration. Increase US oil production. The resultant fall in the oil price could be the final nail in the coffin for Russia's basket case economy.
Under Biden, USA are already producing more oil than ever before. And it increased under Biden at pretty much the same rate as it did under Trump (after the post covid dip). So, again - pretty much the same plan.

1731609733080.png
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,998
Such a pleasant chat show.

As the pressure increases they're doubling down.

They're reiterating their justifications for the initial invasion, and now extending the accusations of nazism to other countries.
Expect more threats, more sabre-rattling, more scapegoating for Russia's internal economic and social problems, more muck and bullets.

Think of the way they have conducted themselves during the war. As the options narrow for them, are they going to a) improve or b) get worse?

We may be entering a dangerous and febrile period.

P.S. Keep an eye on the ruble to USD. It briefly went below one cent today, a milestone that they will - really - want to avoid.
 






A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,477
Deepest, darkest Sussex
1731612045403.jpeg
 












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