[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

I fear Ukraine only has a few terrible months left before defeat.

Unless the west steps up massively, Ukraine will fall.

Our boots on the ground. Our pilots in the air. Only this will stop Russia.

I'm not so pessimistic, certainly not yet. ISW doesn't think this, even a leading Chinese international Scholar, this week thinks Russia will lose.

What is certain, is that right now, Russia has a window of opportunity entirely at the making of the kremlin wing of the republican party.

But somehow, this aid will get done imho and Ukraine will endure up to and beyond November.

With you on the dangers of Trump re-election a shuddering prospect, but I'm also hopeful that his legal issues and one man Orwell road show will see him flat on his fat Tango arse by Autumn.

Going to be a history changing few months for sure.

 

[peterward]

Maybe this should be in trump thread? But as its about the genocidal fascist killing ukrainains, I'll leave it here.... and from a PM of a western NATO ally.

Is US policy based on security interests and threats or Donald's fan club?

 

[Zeberdi]

I don't know how to word this but... somehow it bothers me that US jets, UK jets and ship mounted US air defense systems are immediately used to help take down Iranian missiles and drones fired at Israel...but the same does not happen for Ukraine .

I'm not saying the US and UK should not have intervened to help Israel (that invited the attack by shelling Iranian leaders in Damascus a few days back)... but just my head and emotions spinning on what this reveals about Ukraine's place in the pecking order.
I'm happy to be corrected or helped out by different views .

I hear what you are saying and when you have followed the Ukranian war as intensely as people have on this thread, the feelings of upset, even outrage that Israel has been somehow prioritised for special treatment is understandable:

However, IMO it boils down to harsh realities. Israel is a long standing military ally for both the US and UK - has (always had) strategic importance as our only real sphere of political and military influence in the ME - of course we will defend Israel against an attack from Iran. It makes no strategic geo-political sense for the West not to defend Israel at the moment - it is also a means of us having political influence on Israel.

NATO countries have been funding Ukraine‘s defence for over two years (actually since Crimea) - but helping to defend Ukraine against Russian attacks (as the West helps Israel) is not enough, Ukraine is an invaded Country and needs more than defensive capabilities to win back territory already lost - she needs attacking capability too - it is an entirely different scenario - for NATO troops to go in and fight alongside Ukraine on the ground or fire missiles directly into Russia, brings us into direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed super-power too - that requires far more consideration of the risks. Is that what people really want? At this time? Maybe?

I do find some of the ‘whataboutery’ expressed on here and the Israeli thread a bit distasteful tbh - I have been Netanyahu’s worse critic since day one, not just re.Gaza but because of his judicial reforms, him taking Israel so far to the right that extremist fascists now hold the balance of power, his treatment of Palestinians and settlement expansions etc. but I am also Jewish with family and friends in Israel so feel very strongly, that we should not be criticising the West for defending a tiny allied Jewish State (that we helped create) against a massive military power in the ME with proxies in nearly every surrounding country - (regardless of whether we believe Israel’s recent elevated security risks are self inflicted by an extremist government or not) but rather we should be criticising the West for not defending Ukraine better.

IMHO - If Trump get’s elected, Ukraine will probably be in even more serious trouble and so will the stability of the ME because based on his previous 4 years, he will do nothing to hold either Putin or Netanyahu back from their war mongering agendas to expand the borders of their respective Countries.

 

[raymondo]

I hear what you are saying and when you have followed the Ukranian war as intensely as people have on this thread, the feelings of upset, even outrage that Israel has been somehow prioritised for special treatment is understandable:

However, IMO it boils down to harsh realities. Israel is a long standing military ally for both the US and UK - has (always had) strategic importance as our only real sphere of political and military influence in the ME - of course we will defend Israel against an attack from Iran. It makes no strategic geo-political sense for the West not to defend Israel at the moment - it is also a means of us having political influence on Israel.

NATO countries have been funding Ukraine‘s defence for over two years (actually since Crimea) - but helping to defend Ukraine against Russian attacks (as the West helps Israel) is not enough, Ukraine is an invaded Country and needs more than defensive capabilities to win back territory already lost - she needs attacking capability too - it is an entirely different scenario - for NATO troops to go in and fight alongside Ukraine on the ground or fire missiles directly into Russia, brings us into direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed super-power too - that requires far more consideration of the risks. Is that what people really want? At this time? Maybe?

I do find some of the ‘whataboutery’ expressed on here and the Israeli thread a bit distasteful tbh - I have been Netanyahu’s worse critic since day one, not just re.Gaza but because of his judicial reforms, him taking Israel so far to the right that extremist fascists now hold the balance of power, his treatment of Palestinians and settlement expansions etc. but I am also Jewish with family and friends in Israel so feel very strongly, that we should not be criticising the West for defending a tiny allied Jewish State (that we helped create) against a massive military power in the ME with proxies in nearly every surrounding country - (regardless of whether we believe Israel’s recent elevated security risks are self inflicted by an extremist government or not) but rather we should be criticising the West for not defending Ukraine better.

IMHO - If Trump get’s elected, Ukraine will probably be in even more serious trouble and so will the stability of the ME because based on his previous 4 years, he will do nothing to hold either Putin or Netanyahu back from their war mongering agendas to expand the borders of their respective Countries.

Very balanced post.
Yes, I know you've been a severe critic of Netanyahu's since the beginning.
Agreed, it's not that I don't want the West to defend Israel (I want them to), I do want better defense of Ukraine though.

Strangely, my Ukrainian sister in law has lived and worked in Israel for eight years now. Her son (our nephew) and his wife moved there from Ukraine 3 years ago (economic migrants, pre Putin's invasion). His wife is a Ukrainian Jew.
My sister in law cares full time for a disabled daughter of a Russian surgeon (Tanya ) who's lived and worked in Israel for many years.
Tanya works in a hospital in southern Israel that specifically cares for Palestinian children.
Isn't life interesting....

 

[raymondo]

Not the news we wanted from the front, but news we expected.
On the positive note, well done Germany , get those air defense systems to Ukraine asap.
I wonder if that results from Verhofstadt's intervention at the European parliament last week . If he was right, there are more than 100 more spread across the EU. So, as the German spokesperson rightly said...come you other guys, look down the back of your sofas right away (Hungary excepted of course).

Ukraine war briefing: Ukraine’s army chief says eastern front has ‘deteriorated significantly’

Ukraine’s Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi says Russia has intensified armoured assaults as battles rages over village near Bakhmut. What we know on day 781

www.theguardian.com

 

[raymondo]

Well that's true but also not really.

They've given NASAMs.

But of many 100's of F16 they've delivered 0

Of the 160 patriot batteries theyve given 0, they have supplied some missiles for donated batteries, which has just increased to 3, that's 3 of 12 or 25% of what they have..... compared to USA 0% of 160.

Ukraine has pleaded for deep strike ATACMs to track and hit back the missile sites that fire at them and they've got 0 ("could be deemed an escalation")

The US appeasement, escalation management slow drip just enough has failed. Russia isn't contained by our escalation management and simply sees it as lack of resistance to its evil so pushes harder against the open door.

Jake Sullivan needs firing, a white collar intellectual escalation manager is useless against a lawless gangster mafia state.

Mainly in context of Iran strikes, but equally relevant to Russia.... Excellent points made today here by Andrew Michta.... we need a return to real hard power deterrence.

Have the US really given zero Patriot batteries to Ukraine? I really need to get up to date with these stats.
Are the US afraid of an imminent attack from China? or are they saving them all to ship off to Taiwan? It beggars belief .

 

[Triggaaar]

I fear Ukraine only has a few terrible months left before defeat.

Unless the west steps up massively, Ukraine will fall.

Our boots on the ground. Our pilots in the air. Only this will stop Russia.

That's quite an alarmist viewpoint, which you're stating somewhat as fact. I know that you hope you're wrong. I'm sure you are.

 

[Zeberdi]

That's quite an alarmist viewpoint, which your stating somewhat as fact. I know that you hope you're wrong. I'm sure you are.

I think it is actually a dire warning based on what is happening on the ground and also the US Congress’s apparent inability to pass a single piece of legislation without it becoming contingent on piggybacking other contentious legislation just to get through the House. I referred to this above:

Ukraine could face defeat in 2024. Here's how that might look

With ammo critically low and Western aid stalled, what might Russia attempt in Ukraine this year?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Eric the meek]

One for the drone fans:

Look at this little beauty.....

 

[raymondo]

We just heard from a friend in Zaporizhzhia city that the government announced yesterday they expect all men between 25 and 60 to report for mobilisation - this will be put into law within one month.
(I have not yet searched online for an official statement to confirm this)
One might expect certain people/ professions may be excused, but that was the blanket statement.

Our friends' community is terrified...of losing remaining husbands and sons to a war they fear they no longer have a chance of winning .

 

[Triggaaar]

I think it is actually a dire warning based on what is happening on the ground and also the US Congress’s apparent inability to pass a single piece of legislation without it becoming contingent on piggybacking other contentious legislation just to get through the House. I referred to this above:

Ukraine could face defeat in 2024. Here's how that might look

With ammo critically low and Western aid stalled, what might Russia attempt in Ukraine this year?

www.bbc.co.uk

Clamp said "Our boots on the ground. Our pilots in the air. Only this will stop Russia."

I don't agree with that. If Ukraine were to surrender, they're basically signing their own death warrants. If they don't, then Russia have to advance 800 miles, and provide supply lines of 800 miles to support their troops. It's difficult to imagine Russia managing that, and certainly not in a few months.

 

[raymondo]

One for the drone fans:

Look at this little beauty.....

That's lovely

 

[Eric the meek]

We just heard from a friend in Zaporizhzhia city that the government announced yesterday they expect all men between 25 and 60 to report for mobilisation - this will be put into law within one month.
(I have not yet searched online for an official statement to confirm this)
One might expect certain people/ professions may be excused, but that was the blanket statement.

Our friends' community is terrified...of losing remaining husbands and sons to a war they fear they no longer have a chance of winning .

Unfortunately, there will be a reason for it. But there are two sides to every story.

To provide some context, I watched a Peter Zeihan video the other day, in which he said that Russia was quietly, unofficially mobilising to the tune of 45000 - 60000 per month. While he is prone to hyperbole, even if he is half right (and thus half wrong), these won't be additional troops. They will be troops that Russia needs - just to replace losses.

Russia is - absolutely - throwing the kitchen sink at this. Putin is sacrificing hundreds of troops every day, and possibly even more, to save his own skin.

 

[raymondo]

Unfortunately, there will be a reason for it. But there are two sides to every story.

To provide some context, I watched a Peter Zeihan video the other day, in which he said that Russia was quietly, unofficially mobilising to the tune of 45000 - 60000 per month. While he is prone to hyperbole, even if he is half right (and thus half wrong), these won't be additional troops. They will be troops that Russia needs - just to replace losses.

Russia is - absolutely - throwing the kitchen sink at this. Putin is sacrificing hundreds of troops every day, and possibly even more, to save his own skin.

Russia acting like it senses a window of opportunity: US aid in paralysis; European aid slowed; Ukraine on the back foot...but developing drone capabilities very fast; Russian troop and vehicle losses increasing;Trump may get in or not...

Hopefully the window is short and starts to close soon .

 

[Zeberdi]

Russia is - absolutely - throwing the kitchen sink at this. Putin is sacrificing hundreds of troops every day, and possibly even more, to save his own skin.

It’s the perfect storm isn’t it - 3 desperate ( and increasingly psychotic IMO) global leaders throwing everything at their immediate situation to save their political skins - I don’t know about Putin but certainly Trump and Netanyahu both doing so to avoid staying out of prison/corruption charges and both acting with impunity and reckless abandonment as to any risk to global security their actions might cause.

 

[Eric the meek]

Russia acting like it senses a window of opportunity: US aid in paralysis; European aid slowed; Ukraine on the back foot...but developing drone capabilities very fast; Russian troop and vehicle losses increasing;Trump may get in or not...

Hopefully the window is short and starts to close soon .

Don't forget the Russian economy, a subject which none of us have really focused on, but which IMO, will probably be what finally pulls the plug on Russia's war. The clock is ticking. Russia's war economy is not sustainable, as they don't receive any income from the one-use products of it - weapons. North Korea and Iran are willing to provide weapons all the while the bills are being paid, but when the money runs out? Some Youtubers (e.g. Joe Blogs) predict it collapsing soon. Others (e.g. Peter Zeihan) predict 5-8 years). The Russian political elite may have their own predictions.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I'm not so gloomy.

Total defeat is off the table, I think - that is beyond Russia's battered military capability now.

Serious setbacks for Ukraine, perhaps. Kharkiv could be very vulnerable, losses in the East. Putin won't give up on Odesa but that is a difficult aim for Russia even now.


What is true, I firmly believe, is the better Russia does, the bigger the military aid from Europe. Macron has hinted that French troops would be used if Kyiv or Odesa were in danger.

I think it is up to Europe now. The US is now an unreliable ally. Maybe, just maybe, and a longshot, if Trump miraculously doesn't win the US election then things may fully turn and the US will be back.

Trump will become president.

He will cut all support for Ukraine.

Instead he will pump everything into Israel, possibly triggering war with Iran (albeit my guess is Iran will shit themselves long before then).

The question will be whether Russia or China fancies practicing proxy war by arming Iran. My guess is they know what a bunch of soppy male chauvinist useless ****s the ayatollahs are, and will suddenly....oh, look over there, isn't that a crested swallow tit?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Don't forget the Russian economy, a subject which none of us have really focused on, but which IMO, will probably be what finally pulls the plug on Russia's war. The clock is ticking. Russia's war economy is not sustainable, as they don't receive any income from the one-use products of it - weapons. North Korea and Iran are willing to provide weapons all the while the bills are being paid, but when the money runs out? Some Youtubers (e.g. Joe Blogs) predict it collapsing soon. Others (e.g. Peter Zeihan) predict 5-8 years). The Russian political elite may have their own predictions.

It’s the perfect storm isn’t it - 3 desperate ( and increasingly psychotic IMO) global leaders throwing everything at their immediate situation to save their political skins - I don’t know about Putin but certainly Trump and Netanyahu both doing so to avoid staying out of prison/corruption charges and both acting with impunity and reckless abandonment as to any risk to global security their actions might cause.

That's absolutely the crux of it.

 

[Triggaaar]

Trump will become president.

That's a 50:50 call, so why are you stating it as fact?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

That's a 50:50 call, so why are you stating it as fact?

Apologies. That's my guess.

The rest that follows would be fact.

Unless it isn't, of course.