[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

I can't see that sanctions would bother them in the slightest. I'm not entirely sure how much it's impacted Russia either, certainly not much economically although access to equipment and some raw materials perhaps.

I don't think there's any diplomacy that would work with Russia but I think every effort should be made with China before we start thinking 'we' can threaten them too (which is what I regard sanctions as)

Don't quote me on this (I'm not sure), but I believe the US has already told China not to arm Russia, on pain of sanctions. I think to dismiss sanctions as ineffective, ignores the combined nous, creativity and financial clout of the US, UK, and the combined 27 finance ministers of the EU. They wouldn't have introduced sanctions if they didn't work. There will be gaps, workarounds, nations friendly to Russia of course, but the US is still winning the war solely by its economic muscle - trickle charging Ukraine, without lifting a military finger or risking a US serviceman's life. The US is playing a blinder. Sanctions are a big part of that success.

Turning to China, without the benefit of hindsight that we have with Russian sanctions, this one is more problematic. China has an awful lot of economic growth at stake. Will it risk that growth? I don't know, but it's worth a try, and is the right thing to do prior to any military confrontation.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I can't see that sanctions would bother them in the slightest. I'm not entirely sure how much it's impacted Russia either, certainly not much economically although access to equipment and some raw materials perhaps.

I don't think there's any diplomacy that would work with Russia but I think every effort should be made with China before we start thinking 'we' can threaten them too (which is what I regard sanctions as)

Sanctions against China would be near unenforceable.

They ship stuff to everywhere in the world so any trade embargo's could and would be easily circumvented with third countries.

And that's assuming you get political agreement throughout the western world to do this, which you wouldn't be able to, because nobody wants the supply of cheap tat to end whilst they're in a cost of living crisis.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

China entering this war, isn't this ultimately about Taiwan and control of the Pacific?

Whatever China gives to Russia they will extract an enormous price for. That price will be military and diplomatic support (ie access to remaining battle hardened Russian forces and long range weaponry, plus security council obfuscation) when they do finally take the plunge and expand into the Pacific.

 

[SeagullinExile]

A lot of folk have been saying for decades that a war between the West & Russia/China is inevitable. The only plus side to this is that Chinese hardware is far more inferior to NATO’s at the moment. But I fear the day will eventually come.

 

[jakarta]

Well done President Biden.

I'm far more reassured having him in the White House than I am any of the other clowns they've had in there during my lifetime

A load more hardware on it's way from the US, essentially two fingers up to Vlad, let's see how he responds.

 

[sparkie]

The "strongman" leader who tried to take Kyiv in a week has had to let the US President visit at will. With no say.

It makes Putin look so weak. And when Russian leaders look weak ....

 

[pb21]

China potentially helping Russia, US President visiting Ukrainian President in Kyiv, things seem to be escalating somewhat.

 

[Motogull]

In the middle of all, Ukraine. There'll be f*** all left of it before too long.

 

[Rugrat]

Don't quote me on this (I'm not sure), but I believe the US has already told China not to arm Russia, on pain of sanctions. I think to dismiss sanctions as ineffective, ignores the combined nous, creativity and financial clout of the US, UK, and the combined 27 finance ministers of the EU. They wouldn't have introduced sanctions if they didn't work. There will be gaps, workarounds, nations friendly to Russia of course, but the US is still winning the war solely by its economic muscle - trickle charging Ukraine, without lifting a military finger or risking a US serviceman's life. The US is playing a blinder. Sanctions are a big part of that success.

Turning to China, without the benefit of hindsight that we have with Russian sanctions, this one is more problematic. China has an awful lot of economic growth at stake. Will it risk that growth? I don't know, but it's worth a try, and is the right thing to do prior to any military confrontation.

I don't dismiss sanctions (as a strategy) as ineffective but if Russia can replace most of the loss by selling/buying from states that aren't imposing sanctions then they won't have the desired effect. It would be good to see just how the sanctions are working too, unfortunately precious little on that other than the patriotic headlines. Is there evidence that we can clearly see?

Nor am I convinced about China, think 'we' have far more to lose than they do. Their export market could be shot to bits for a
while but they have endless reserves to take up the slack and I imagine might be quite prepared to incur a few years of negative growth in order to stick one on the US and get what it wants in Asia

I simply don't think threat and counter threat is the way out of this, certainly where China is concerned

 

[Eric the meek]

I don't dismiss sanctions (as a strategy) as ineffective but if Russia can replace most of the loss by selling/buying from states that aren't imposing sanctions then they won't have the desired effect. It would be good to see just how the sanctions are working too, unfortunately precious little on that other than the patriotic headlines. Is there evidence that we can clearly see?

Nor am I convinced about China, think 'we' have far more to lose than they do. Their export market could be shot to bits for a
while but they have endless reserves to take up the slack and I imagine might be quite prepared to incur a few years of negative growth in order to stick one on the US and get what it wants in Asia

I simply don't think threat and counter threat is the way out of this, certainly where China is concerned

The war has been going for nearly a year now. Take a look at post #10,124. I posted a link about the slow death of the Russian aviation industry.

A tank manufacturer in Chelyabinsk had to stop production due to lack of spare parts that it previously got from the west.

Why did Russia buy drones from Iran? Because it couldn't make them itself. They even complained about this on Russian state TV.

In addition, there have been numerous accounts of poorly equipped Russian troops, including on Russian state TV. This points to huge supply issues. Weapons, clothes, boots, food, arms, ammo, you name it. The very fact that a year in, Russia still only holds a fifth of the Ukraine land mass, really spells it out. The Black Sea fleet is confined to port, and where is the Russian air force? On the ground.

What counter evidence do you have that the sanctions are not working?

 

[Nicks]

The war has been going for nearly a year now. Take a look at post #10,124. I posted a link about the slow death of the Russian aviation industry.

A tank manufacturer in Chelyabinsk had to stop production due to lack of spare parts that it previously got from the west.

Why did Russia buy drones from Iran? Because it couldn't make them itself. They even complained about this on Russian state TV.

In addition, there have been numerous accounts of poorly equipped Russian troops, including on Russian state TV. This points to huge supply issues. Weapons, clothes, boots, food, arms, ammo, you name it. The very fact that a year in, Russia still only holds a fifth of the Ukraine land mass, really spells it out. The Black Sea fleet is confined to port, and where is the Russian air force? On the ground.

What counter evidence do you have that the sanctions are not working?

The Russian Armed Forces have always been under equipped and are mostly conscripts , as it's compulsory to do a years National Service (Obviously it may have changed since the start of this war).
Their fleet is in bits and is out of date. The only good thing they may have is their underwater capabilities but I suspect we are ahead of the game on this one already as we were years ago.
Life is cheap out there to the people in power going back to the days of Stalin and nothings changed since.

 

[Rugrat]

The war has been going for nearly a year now. Take a look at post #10,124. I posted a link about the slow death of the Russian aviation industry.

A tank manufacturer in Chelyabinsk had to stop production due to lack of spare parts that it previously got from the west.

Why did Russia buy drones from Iran? Because it couldn't make them itself. They even complained about this on Russian state TV.

In addition, there have been numerous accounts of poorly equipped Russian troops, including on Russian state TV. This points to huge supply issues. Weapons, clothes, boots, food, arms, ammo, you name it. The very fact that a year in, Russia still only holds a fifth of the Ukraine land mass, really spells it out. The Black Sea fleet is confined to port, and where is the Russian air force? On the ground.

What counter evidence do you have that the sanctions are not working?

I don't doubt they are having issues and demise of the Russian aviation industry is something that I wouldn't imagine Putin gives a stuff about.

Yes, the sanctions will bite, so tank production, munitions will be hit but I can't see how that won't be replaced, either by buying elsewhere (yes, Iranian drones) or tooling up to produce those parts themselves.

I agree the land grab hasn't been successful but I put that down to a dreadful military strategy. They sent in poorly trained and equipped troops expecting Ukraine to roll over but came up against resistance they simply hadn't counted on. I fear their next push might not be as catastrophically bad.

I don't disagree that sanctions are a weapon to use, but only one of many and their overall effect on the eventual outcome is questionable in my mind

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Well yes sanctions are obviously working against Russia.

But even if they only achieved marginal successes, it's still worth it. What message would it send if we were to continue our normal trading relationship with Russia?

 

[SeagullinExile]

I don't doubt they are having issues and demise of the Russian aviation industry is something that I wouldn't imagine Putin gives a stuff about.

Yes, the sanctions will bite, so tank production, munitions will be hit but I can't see how that won't be replaced, either by buying elsewhere (yes, Iranian drones) or tooling up to produce those parts themselves.

I agree the land grab hasn't been successful but I put that down to a dreadful military strategy. They sent in poorly trained and equipped troops expecting Ukraine to roll over but came up against resistance they simply hadn't counted on. I fear their next push might not be as catastrophically bad.

I don't disagree that sanctions are a weapon to use, but only one of many and their overall effect on the eventual outcome is questionable in my mind

They didn’t send in poorly trained troops tbf. The 1st Guards Tank Army (Usually used for the defense of Moscow) were highly trained and well equipped. They suffered two heavy defeats, one in particular was Kharkiv where they were decimated. The Russians do have a lot of conscripts, but they still have some highly trained divisions in play.

 

[Triggaaar]

The US threatening China rather than requesting, given that they are supplying arms to Ukraine seems a pretty stupid move to me too.

Russia invaded Ukraine with the intention of taking it's land. Supplying weapons to defend Ukraine against Russian forces is completely different to supplying weapons to Russia so that they can murder civilians.

IMO the West should explain the situation to China - no country should be invaded - not China, not Russia, not Ukraine. And the West will sanction any country partaking in invading a sovereign nation. If China and Russia want to take over other countries, we should not trade with them.

Yes, that would have a huge impact on Western economies, but not as bad as WW2. That was something we had to fight for, and this is too. This is a fight to save freedom in our world.

Given that choice, I don't think there's any chance China would help Russia.

 

[Icy Gull]

Russia invaded Ukraine with the intention of taking it's land. Supplying weapons to defend Ukraine against Russian forces is completely different to supplying weapons to Russia so that they can murder civilians.

IMO the West should explain the situation to China - no country should be invaded - not China, not Russia, not Ukraine. And the West will sanction any country partaking in invading a sovereign nation. If China and Russia want to take over other countries, we should not trade with them.

Yes, that would have a huge impact on Western economies, but not as bad as WW2. That was something we had to fight for, and this is too. This is a fight to save freedom in our world.

Given that choice, I don't think there's any chance China would help Russia.

No argument on what you say but threatening China when it will be broadcast on world news stories strikes me as ill thought out and possibly reckless. Negotiate before threatening is the way to go surely?

 

[Triggaaar]

No argument on what you say but threatening China when it will be broadcast on world news stories strikes me as ill thought out and possibly reckless. Negotiate before threatening is the way to go surely?

To be clear, the threats are economic, not military. And yes, all threats should be between diplomats, not on TV.

I don't think it's unreasonable for the West to explain that we have no intention of interfering with how China is run, or how Russia is run, but the invasion of sovereign nations (with a view to take over the land, as opposed to removing WMDs etc) is not acceptable, and we won't trade with nations that do so.

 

[The Fifth Column]

The sanctions against Russia are working albeit in lots of visible and less visible ways. Whilst Russia can weather the storm and pain of sanctions for so long they can't do it forever. When they were raking it in on their inflated oil and gas supplies they were managing OK but now the west has stopped buying their energy and put in place other measures their markets have not only significantly shrunk but they are selling to anyone who will purchase their oil at huge discounts, they are currently selling at around $50 a barrel, Brent crude is up around $84! This has had a huge impact on their revenues and their cash reserves are being hammered to the tune of 10s of billions of pounds. The Russian economy is starting to tank and as the cost of the war soars and they keep using their reserves to prop up the economy there will at some point be a tipping point, as someone else said this will likely happen very suddenly and quickly over a matter of days. As the economic outlook gets bleaker and the lack of progress on the battlefield continues, Putin looks weaker and weaker which ultimately will lead to his demise. Once that happens there will be a power vacuum with no natural successor and personally I think this will be the most dangerous time for everyone.

 

[Triggaaar]

The sanctions against Russia are working albeit in lots of visible and less visible ways. Whilst Russia can weather the storm and pain of sanctions for so long they can't do it forever. When they were raking it in on their inflated oil and gas supplies they were managing OK but now the west has stopped buying their energy and put in place other measures their markets have not only significantly shrunk but they are selling to anyone who will purchase their oil at huge discounts, they are currently selling at around $50 a barrel, Brent crude is up around $84! This has had a huge impact on their revenues and their cash reserves are being hammered to the tune of 10s of billions of pounds. The Russian economy is starting to tank and as the cost of the war soars and they keep using their reserves to prop up the economy there will at some point be a tipping point, as someone else said this will likely happen very suddenly and quickly over a matter of days. As the economic outlook gets bleaker and the lack of progress on the battlefield continues, Putin looks weaker and weaker which ultimately will lead to his demise.

Once that happens there will be a power vacuum with no natural successor and personally I think this will be the most dangerous time for everyone.

I realise a power vacuum is more likely to be filled by a strong murderous criminal than any half decent politician, but regardless, the person (man) taking over will have the choice to continue to fight a lost war, or stop and just blame it all on Putin, and help Russia recover, building themselves a nice life. I'm not particularly confident they won't choose the former, even though I can't understand how that could possibly help them.

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

Joe Biden aka Young Mr Grace

“You’ve all done very well”