[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Tony Brenton, former UK ambassador to Russia, said on the BBC:

1) Russia has been sanctioned for 16 years. The sanctions haven't moved Russian policy one jot.
2) Putin is a cautious man. He is safe at home, but the one thing that could bring him down is a disastrous military campaign. This is why, Brenton argues, that Putin won't go further into Ukraine. He knows it is a war he could lose.

 

[peterward]

I can only assume that UEFA will be moving tGhe champions league final to another country?

Move it to Kyiv. That would be the perfect f*** you to Putin.

 

[Doc Lynam]

 

[peterward]

Tony Brenton, former UK ambassador to Russia, said on the BBC:

1) Russia has been sanctioned for 16 years. The sanctions haven't moved Russian policy one jot.
2) Putin is a cautious man. He is safe at home, but the one thing that could bring him down is a disastrous military campaign. This is why, Brenton argues, that Putin won't go further into Ukraine. He knows it is a war he could lose.

I saw that too, can only hope he bottles it as many innocent lives will be lost if her carries on with this madness

 

[vegster]

I’d imagine that when they started the military planning that they also started economic planning ( if not before) - I’d bet that much of it has already been moved. Hang on tight for even greater fuel prices.

Announcing just a few sanctions is not going to stop him... there needs to be worldwide agreement that Russia is a pariah state much like North Korea... yes we need the petrol so we will have to suffer but Putin needs to know there are consequences for attacking a sovereign state on contrived grounds. He's going to keep doing this otherwise.

 

[vegster]

It is entirely reasonable and a good solution for everyone.

Anyway, probably too late.

Some thoughts:

It seems that a war will be the case... how it will look like is difficult to tell. The most likely outcome is a low intensity asymmetrical war, but we'll know soon enough.
Is it preventable? Probably not. Russia wants Ukraine in its sphere of influence, and the West wants the opposite, as well as a brand new conflict for the thirsty war profiteers. To what extent? World War III? I very much doubt it - too intricate and quite needless.

Those profiting from this war will - as usual - be the banks, arms and energy companies, as well as the state of China - when we need to sell our societies in order to build bigger bombs and what not, China will be ready to buy. They are doing it the soft way. As long as they have a say, which will nowadays always be the case, full-scale war of the old type is unlikely.
Was it ever preventable? Yes, I do believe so. Ukraine had a decent relation to both the East and the West when we decided to fund a state coup in 2013-14. We paid substantial money to create a campaign to get rid of their democratically elected leader with the US also "recommending" who to appoint as the next Ukrainian leader.

For the umpteenth time, our greed created a scenario that was always going to end in blood. Ukraine had a slow and seemingly natural "westernisation" process going - the main obstacle preventing them from joining some ten years ago was the costs; £100m upwards to adapt to EU regulations. Ukraine is not a rich country. We didnt accept the hesitation. Instead we funded "alternative media" in Ukraine, promoting nationalist and even Nazi organisations to go out and demand that the democratically elected president leave. Not to talk about the yankee military bases...

Some bad mistakes among many. Imagine Russia spending money on eg English media to tell neo-Nazis and far-right nationalists to get armed and take the streets in order to get rid of the government and then not much later installing a few military bases over in Horsham. Would some be happy? Absolutely, getting rid of a buffalo demagogue. Would some be less than happy? Yes, foreign powers promoting a state coup in your country is probably not a great feeling. Happy or unhappy - it would interrupt any "natural" process going on and create a very sensitive and divisive environment. The West-supported overthrowing of the Ukrainian government did not help the West, the Russians or the Ukrainians - though the war profiteers might have been happy...

I take it you have not given up the weed then ?

 

[A1X]

It is entirely reasonable and a good solution for everyone.

Sorry, why is it “reasonable”? Why do you think Russia should be able to decide what other sovereign nations can and cannot do?

 

[Swansman]

Sorry, why is it “reasonable”? Why do you think Russia should be able to decide what other sovereign nations can and cannot do?

"Should" and "should"... its how the world has worked for a very, very long time - empires have a sphere of influence outside their empire. Its the same thing everywhere you look including in the west. The least bad option is a power balance, something which is threatened if Ukraine gets westernised.

 

[Eric the meek]

"Should" and "should"... its how the world has worked for a very, very long time - empires have a sphere of influence outside their empire. Its the same thing everywhere you look including in the west. The least bad option is a power balance, something which is threatened if Ukraine gets westernised.

Swanny, [MENTION=35904]A1X[/MENTION] only wrote 'should' the once. You appear to be seeing double. When you start seeing double, it's time not to smoke any more of that stuff.

 

[A1X]

"Should" and "should"... its how the world has worked for a very, very long time - empires have a sphere of influence outside their empire. Its the same thing everywhere you look including in the west. The least bad option is a power balance, something which is threatened if Ukraine gets westernised.

But if Ukraine wants to westernise, who are you, I or Vladimir Putin to deny them? That’s how sovereignty works. Or are you saying Ukraine shouldn’t be permitted sovereignty?

 

[beorhthelm]

"Should" and "should"... its how the world has worked for a very, very long time - empires have a sphere of influence outside their empire. Its the same thing everywhere you look including in the west. The least bad option is a power balance, something which is threatened if Ukraine gets westernised.

balance of power is centuries old concept that seems to fail constantly. funnily enough all those involved want a bit more balance in their favour. Russia isnt interested in a balance, Putin has gone on record Ukraine shouldnt exist and is part of Russia.

 

[Swansman]

But if Ukraine wants to westernise, who are you, I or Vladimir Putin to deny them? That’s how sovereignty works. Or are you saying Ukraine shouldn’t be permitted sovereignty?

And if a country wants to nationalize industry or turn pro-communist, who are we to deny them? Yet thats what were doing all over the world, and shouldnt expect Russia to be any different in that regard.

 

[PILTDOWN MAN]

And if a country wants to nationalize industry or turn pro-communist, who are we to deny them? Yet thats what were doing all over the world, and shouldnt expect Russia to be any different in that regard.

You are one weird chap.

Nothing more to add

 

[peterward]

"Should" and "should"... its how the world has worked for a very, very long time - empires have a sphere of influence outside their empire. Its the same thing everywhere you look including in the west. The least bad option is a power balance, something which is threatened if Ukraine gets westernised.

They have zero right to spheres of influence and this type if imperial nonsense is a product of 100+ years ago, not the 21st century.

I implore you to listen to the incredible speech at last nights emergency UN security council session from the Kenyan UN representative.

If only Putin had the same levels of wisdom and intellect.



p.s the Soviet/Russian empire is also dead

 

[London Irish]

Russian stock market actually rose 1.6 per cent today. Reckon global investors don’t think there’s gonna be a nuclear war

 

[London Irish]

They have zero right to spheres of influence and this type if imperial nonsense is a product of 100+ years ago, not the 21st century.

I implore you to listen to the incredible speech at last nights emergency UN security council session from the Kenyan UN representative.

If only Putin had the same levels of wisdom and intellect.



p.s the Soviet/Russian empire is also dead

Didn’t the Soviet empire die in 1991? Remember Thatcher and all the other western leaders celebrating that? What happened then eh?

If you’d have listened to all the Security Council contributions last night, you’d know that the “Nato can do what the hell it likes up to Russian borders” isn’t a majority position of the world’s nations

 

[heathgate]

And if a country wants to nationalize industry or turn pro-communist, who are we to deny them? Yet thats what were doing all over the world, and shouldnt expect Russia to be any different in that regard.

The 'whataboutery' is strong in this one...... as usual.

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[heathgate]

And if a country wants to nationalize industry or turn pro-communist, who are we to deny them? Yet thats what were doing all over the world, and shouldnt expect Russia to be any different in that regard.

No country elects to become communist... a selection of its citizenry may push that agenda on the powerless population... mostly authoritarian and/or totalitarian political cadres.

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[peterward]

Didn’t the Soviet empire die in 1991? Remember Thatcher and all the other western leaders celebrating that? What happened then eh?

If you’d have listened to all the Security Council contributions last night, you’d know that the “Nato can do what the hell it likes up to Russian borders” isn’t a majority position of the world’s nations

Even though this crisis was entirely created, then fuelled by Putin, and ultimately isnt about NATO, but ending Ukraines move westwards, out of Moscows grip......... This whole idea that NATO is marching east, or is some type of invading army is entirely bollocks. It primary function is as a "sum of the whole is stronger than the indivdual parts" collective defence pact. And each country that is in NATO, willingly applied to join, they were not invaded, subjugated, coerced or bullied to join.... those previous warsaw pact countries who had been forced into Moscow domination against their wills, joined to protect themselves from Russia.

"NATO can do what it likes up to Russian borders"..... well of course it can't, and nobody is suggesting that permanent bases are put on Russias borders. The reason why their has been retisence in allowing Ukraines request to join NATO is because NATO doesnt want a war or conflict with Russia, and there was only limited military hardware and troops in eastern Europe, which has only increased because of Putins bullying and threats.

That can easily be resolved by legally binding agreements and controls on bases, arms, troops.
But it isnt about that. If you heard Putins rambling rant last night, he clearly stated that Ukraine isnt a real country, it was invented by Lenin (which is just madness), effectively has no right to exist..... you'll find the real answers here, now the mask is off.

No coutries in eastern Europe have joined NATO in years, nothing has changed, Russia wasnt under threat....all this madness started as Putin saw an opportunity due to political and economic circumstances in the world, to try and fulfill his long term strategic goal and crazy obsession to re subjugate and control Ukraine

Waste your time focussing on his invented straw man non argument if you choose, but it isnt really about that. Putin isnt interested in NATO or security guarantees and there is no threat, he wants Ukraine back under his full control. He's scared of flourishing Ukrainian democracy and its also the missing piece of his Soviet Union 2.0.

 

[Insel affe]

The 'whataboutery' is strong in this one...... as usual.

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You shouldn’t expect anything different from Swansman, he’s a Swede & modern day Russia can trace its roots and name back to them especially the Northern Sami.