[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[The Clamp]

Ukraine no longer wish to join Nato and they are open to discussion about ceding the existing Russian territory in Ukraine.
That could offer Putin a way out, which he is possibly looking for. Appeasement? Yes, I suppose it is.
But what is the alternative right now? Seriously? Go to war with Russia? Actually invade Russia and take Putin out?
Or have Nato bomb Russian troops out of Ukraine?
Both of those courses of action will likely end in nuclear destruction.

 

[Billy the Fish]

I also think things like McDonalds closing is big too. It’s easy to trivialise such things, but there is one major thing at play. Governments can hide all sorts of things from the public, and all the oil / gas stuff can be hidden from the Russian man in the street. But they’re going to notice that McDonalds is shut. And staying shut. You can’t hide that.

Scenes in Russia tomorrow. *edit* bad language from the start.

https://youtu.be/eOCZKH38sbg

 

[birthofanorange]

Escalating a conflict doesn't help avoid civilian murder. It ups the count. If Ukraine and Russia can find an accord, then that will be the only way to avoid an escalating civilian death toll.

As much as you say appeasement NEVER works, neither does victory. Victory didn't work in WWI, it didn't work in WWII. It didn't work in Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Syria, Korea, any conflict you care to mention, there is no real victory only a huge death toll. Hitler and the Nazis may have been defeated in WWII, but Stalin was an equal to Hitler in his view to the value of human life. Learn from history and it isn't the winning conflicts that keeps death tolls down, it's diplomacy, treaties, agreements, concessions. Hitler doesn't exist if you exit WWI correctly. You then don't even have the term appeasement you keep quoting.

And, of course, there are no 'winners' should this escalate to WW111....none at all.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Escalating a conflict doesn't help avoid civilian murder. It ups the count. If Ukraine and Russia can find an accord, then that will be the only way to avoid an escalating civilian death toll.

As much as you say appeasement NEVER works, neither does victory. Victory didn't work in WWI, it didn't work in WWII. It didn't work in Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Syria, Korea, any conflict you care to mention, there is no real victory only a huge death toll. Hitler and the Nazis may have been defeated in WWII, but Stalin was an equal to Hitler in his view to the value of human life. Learn from history and it isn't the winning conflicts that keeps death tolls down, it's diplomacy, treaties, agreements, concessions. Hitler doesn't exist if you exit WWI correctly. You then don't even have the term appeasement you keep quoting.

If you could make such bargains with Putin and have any trust at all that his side would be upheld, i'd agree with you

 

[beorhthelm]

Indeed.

If Russians are anything like us Brits - who absolutely LOST THEIR SHIT when KFC ran out of chicken due to supply issues and called the police - then McDonalds closing down might just see people on the streets and the Kremlin getting sacked.

the Russian people (or probably most others) are a bit more stoic than that.

which is a worry, just how will they react to sanctions, will they out last us while our petrol goes over £2, inflation bites and theres a shortage of Matryoshka dolls?

 

[birthofanorange]

the Russian people (or probably most others) are a bit more stoic than that.

Besides, depriving them of Maccies is probably doing them a favour, health-wise, at least.

 

[peterward]

Understood, but the crude reality is that justice is never even. And to reach the best available outcome you sometimes have to accept that you cannot have the best outcome. Sometimes in chasing the best outcome things are made worse.

Had I said to you, three months ago, that Ukraine was a politically divided nation that would achieve peaceful, and even prosperous, aims by dividing in some way. And then had I shown you the political map, you may have agreed with me. Had I explained the historical complexities about the eastward advance of NATO, and why Ukraine was a red line, some may have tried to understand more than resorting to the 'appeaser' jibe.

But then Putin did the unthinkable, something that we thought the US and allies were just bluffing and winding up over. Thus all of us joined the condemnation. But we are only doing what the world in general is doing. It's a human reaction. There is no justification for war. And shouting our hatred for Putin is not going to save a single life. The West is punishing Putin in the only way it can, weakening his position. Sanctions, heavy ones, was the best start.

But at some stage the reality of what was happening before his madness has to be addressed. Firstly to make it clear that, when taking characters out of the war, the original issues are being addressed. Secondly, in the name of humanity, to stop the bloodshed. How easy it is to bang the keyboard drums and watch others fight these battles, celebrating another tank being blown up or pouring over the stats to see who is winning. Come on, Ukraine !

But of course, ultimately our sympathy is with Ukraine, and the peaceful life that most of its citizens had before. The ordinary victims of a war which could have been long averted. And it is to them our duty, how ever much face is lost on both sides (and sometimes I wonder if Ukraine is a 'side' in this war or just the poor souls being forced to fight and flee it, to somehow hold their home and lives together).

As I said much earlier, I think Ukraine cannot join NATO, but has to have its own military. I think the Crimea and the East has to decide for itself. And I think, despite, it seemingly escaping justice, Russia will pay the price regardless for its aggression. I now believe this may actually come to pass. And God's speed to it. These folks have suffered enough while our keyboards burn with righteousness.

I wouldnt have agreed with you 3 months ago, it's been predominantly pro Ukraine since 2014. Before 2014 yes, 50/50 since maybe 85/15, now almost 100

And NATO didn't march east
It's not an army. The ex Warsaw pact countroes who want to be sovereign and independent were invaded by the Nazis then by the soviets against their will. When the Soviet Union collapsed, they of their own choice looked west to protect themselves from Russia's never ending imperialist ambitions.

This whole NATO marching east to contain Russia is a Kremlin narrative. Moscow seeks to dominate and create vassal puppets, if you can't protect yourself you will become one. As soon as they could Poland, the Baltic's etc took the only option they could to avoid Moscow domination again.

Looking at Ukraine now, it seems it was very wise.

Agree, but east didn't decide it was invaded and puppets installed. Crimea in previous 2010 election the pro Russian Sergei Aksenyov got 5% of Crimea vite, then at gunpoint the Crimea legislative is forced to set a referendum and it's 85% join Russia. That's not a vote.

 

[Icy Gull]

the Russian people (or probably most others) are a bit more stoic than that.

which is a worry, just how will they react to sanctions, will they out last us while our petrol goes over £2, inflation bites and theres a shortage of Matryoshka dolls?

The old will be Putin fans, the young will be more switched on to the shit that’s going down, I hope

 

[Eeyore]

I don't disagree necessarily, but those are decisions for the people of Ukraine and their leadership. It's not for the West or for Putin to be deciding their future as you suggest.

After I wrote that piece, it occurred to me that I see this war as two competing ideologies in which ordinary folk suffer the most. But in many ways, that is what it is. A look at the political map of the region shows why my mind sees it like that.

I think the Ukraine leadership softening its NATO stance and suggesting talk over the East is the start. Russia dropping its de-militarising stance another. But, like you, my heart cries in injustice. But then, I have faith that ordinary folk in Russia will see what that **** has done to their sons and fathers, and perhaps we will see some re-dress.

 

[swindonseagull]

Thats Starbucks closing down in Russia now

[tweet]1501300486837837827[/tweet]

 

[peterward]

After I wrote that piece, it occurred to me that I see this war as two competing ideologies in which ordinary folk suffer the most. But in many ways, that is what it is. A look at the political map of the region shows why my mind sees it like that.

I think the Ukraine leadership softening its NATO stance and suggesting talk over the East is the start. Russia dropping its de-militarising stance another. But, like you, my heart cries in injustice. But then, I have faith that ordinary folk in Russia will see what that **** has done to their sons and fathers, and perhaps we will see some re-dress.

I have a very vested interest with many family members in Mariupol and friends in various cities, 4 of whom are fighting.

I agree about NATO and bases but not neutral or demilitarised in the sense Russia demand. Ukraine should be armed to the teeth after this incursion, to make them an even more bitter pill to try and swallow.

But Putin won't accept, he thinks he's on a messianic mission on multiple fronts. He wants a vassal puppet that also can't join EU (the will of citizens).

Plus the obvious, Putin cannot be trusted

 

[Bold Seagull]

the Russian people (or probably most others) are a bit more stoic than that.

which is a worry, just how will they react to sanctions, will they out last us while our petrol goes over £2, inflation bites and theres a shortage of Matryoshka dolls?

we on the other hand couldn't handle a rumour that toilet rolls were running out...

 

[birthofanorange]

we on the other hand couldn't handle a rumour that toilet rolls were running out...

Are they??

 

[Hugo Rune]

Hitler and the Nazis may have been defeated in WWII, but Stalin was an equal to Hitler in his view to the value of human life.

No. Stalin was a profound psychopath. He killed a lot more people than Hitler. He killed anyone in his way, millions of his own people. Hitler was not a psychopath. He was a lot of things, but not that.

 

[birthofanorange]

I have a very vested interest with many family members in Mariupol and friends in various cities, 4 of whom are fighting.

I realise that from previous posts of yours, and can fully understand your stance on this. God willing, they will all be fine.

 

[aolstudios]

Escalating a conflict doesn't help avoid civilian murder. It ups the count. If Ukraine and Russia can find an accord, then that will be the only way to avoid an escalating civilian death toll.

As much as you say appeasement NEVER works, neither does victory. Victory didn't work in WWI, it didn't work in WWII. It didn't work in Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Syria, Korea, any conflict you care to mention, there is no real victory only a huge death toll. Hitler and the Nazis may have been defeated in WWII, but Stalin was an equal to Hitler in his view to the value of human life. Learn from history and it isn't the winning conflicts that keeps death tolls down, it's diplomacy, treaties, agreements, concessions. Hitler doesn't exist if you exit WWI correctly. You then don't even have the term appeasement you keep quoting.

Try telling Jews victory didn't work in ww2

 

[Bold Seagull]

Try telling Jews victory didn't work in ww2

Try telling the millions Stalin killed and the millions he starved to death after WWII, that he'd be sat celebrating victory with the allies with half of Europe in his pocket. It was a victory for the Jews, but it condemned millions to subjugation and starvation. It's not really a competition to see who suffered more at the hands of 2 of History's most murderous dictators.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Thats Starbucks closing down in Russia now

[tweet]1501300486837837827[/tweet]

Just think of the massive loss of corporate tax to the Russian exchequer

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Stalin Hitler, blah blah blah

 

[Solid at the back]

Coca-Cola are out, huge!